Searching for a Specialist: WGC-Bridgestone Invitational

Heading back to the States for this week’s WGC-Bridgestone, a field of 73 golfers will prep for Firestone Country Club.

It’s a long course with tough-to-hit, tree-lined fairways and fast greens.

Reviewing last week, our specialist flirted with the cut line for a second straight week but then J.B. Holmes turned it on for a solid weekend. He ended with 89 DraftKings by week’s end.

This week we will look at performance on Bentgrass Greens, performance on Long Courses, performance on Hard Courses, performance on Fast Greens, and finish up with performance on Hard-to-Hit Fairways.

Here we go …

Bentgrass Greens

The greens at Firestone CC are a bentgrass/poa annua blend but poa annua doesn’t add anything to the predictive power here. It actually hurts it so I will focus primarily on bentgrass splits.

The 10 Bentgrass Specialists:

Thorbjorn Olesen (1.554 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.873 sg:total)
Hao Tong Li (0.851 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.286 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (2.867 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.491 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (2.47 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.157 sg:total)
Anirban Lahiri (1.316 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.04 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (2.421 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.155 sg:total)
Justin Rose (2.997 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.75 sg:total) – Withdrawn
Rory McIlroy (3.044 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.816 sg:total)
Francesco Molinari (2.279 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.055 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.531 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.311 sg:total)

Quantity: The golfers that have the most strokes gained on bentgrass since 2014 are Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar, Dustin Johnson, and Justin Rose.

Rickie Fowler is very appealing in this angle because his SG Total on bentgrass approaches 3 strokes gained per round (adjusted to field strength and time).

Andrew Landry drops more than half a shot per round (compared to his baseline when heading to bentgrass). Not ideal.

Long Courses

At first glance, this might look like an average course at 7,400 yards.

However, it’s a par 70 so that means fewer par 5s to eat up yardage. The par-5 16th is a beast here but this course still grades out as very long.

Seven of the par 4s play at 460 yards or longer!

The Top 10 Long Course Specialists

Andrew Landry (1.212 sg:long vs. 0.708 sg:total)
Patrick Cantlay (2.608 sg:long vs. 2.25 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (1.929 sg:long vs. 1.59 sg:total)
Patrick Reed (2.289 sg:long vs. 2 sg:total)
Branden Grace (2.054 sg:long vs. 1.796 sg:total)
Charl Schwartzel (1.793 sg:long vs. 1.543 sg:total)
Kevin Chappell (1.756 sg:long vs. 1.51 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (2.404 sg:long vs. 2.157 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.308 sg:long vs. 1.063 sg:total)
Paul Casey (2.68 sg:long vs. 2.465 sg:total)

Quantity: Golfers with the most weighted strokes gained on long courses since 2014 are Paul Casey, Justin Rose (Withdrawn), Patrick Reed, Dustin Johnson, and Jason Day.

It’s not always the longest drivers that excel on the longer courses. Sometimes a long course means fewer greens will be found in regulation and that puts a premium on scrambling.

After Andrew Landry showed up at the very bottom in bentgrass performance he now pops at the top of long courses! Which will win out this week?

Hard Courses

When a golfer is dialed in at Firestone CC they can reach 15-to-20 under by week’s end.

However, this course is a brute and often yields some of the lowest birdie and eagle rates. The majority of the field will be settling for par after par and trying to crack a birdie whenever possible.

These type of courses can really grind you down mentally, so let’s see who likes that challenge.

The Top 10 Hard Course Specialists:

Brooks Koepka (2.688 sg:hard vs. 2.157 sg:total)
Bubba Watson (2.356 sg:hard vs. 1.855 sg:total)
Louis Oosthuizen (2.376 sg:hard vs. 1.914 sg:total)
Jordan Spieth (3.21 sg:hard vs. 2.808 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (2.026 sg:hard vs. 1.68 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (2.496 sg:hard vs. 2.155 sg:total)
Patrick Reed (2.304 sg:hard vs. 2 sg:total)
Pat Perez (1.924 sg:hard vs. 1.637 sg:total)
Charl Schwartzel (1.791 sg:hard vs. 1.543 sg:total)
Kevin Na (1.953 sg:hard vs. 1.712 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on hard courses since 2014 are Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Paul Casey, Patrick Reed, and Matt Kuchar.

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Brooks is on the record for liking hard courses because they keep him focused on every shot. You could probably say the same about Bubba because he gets bored very easily but he’s one of the best shotmakers on the whole TOUR.

A few names stick out at the bottom as names to avoid: Patton Kizzire and Kiradech Aphibarnrat. They seem to like their courses on the mild side.

Fast Greens

Firestone usually preps their greens to run at 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter and then Mother Nature dictates whether that becomes 12.2 or 13.

With quick, bentgrass surfaces it could be worth looking at performance at Augusta National and/or Muirfield Village GC. Those are two that come to mind when I think of fast greens.

The Top 10 Fast Green Specialists:

Kyle Stanley (1.954 sg:fast greens vs. 1.311 sg:total)
Bryson DeChambeau (2.109 sg:fast greens vs. 1.586 sg:total)
Ian Poulter (2.022 sg:fast greens vs. 1.519 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (2.092 sg:fast greens vs. 1.59 sg:total)
Luke List (1.966 sg:fast greens vs. 1.603 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (2.009 sg:fast greens vs. 1.68 sg:total)
Patrick Cantlay (2.567 sg:fast greens vs. 2.25 sg:total)
Paul Casey (2.772 sg:fast greens vs. 2.465 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (2.46 sg:fast greens vs. 2.155 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (2.446 sg:fast greens vs. 2.157 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on fast greens since 2014 are Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose (Withdrawn), Dustin Johnson, and Justin Thomas.

If you look at this entire column on the table at the bottom then you may quickly realize that elite ball-striking generally rises to the top on fast greens. That’s not because ball-strikers are better putters on faster greens. They just hit it closer which reduces their chances of three-putting over the course of the week.

Hard-to-Hit Fairways

The fairways at Firestone CC are tree-lined and sloped.

They generally play pretty firm as well which only adds to the difficulty of keeping it on the short stuff (fairway).

The Top 10 Hard Fairway Specialists:

Alex Noren (2.523 sg:hard fairways vs. 1.869 sg:total)
Bubba Watson (2.442 sg:hard fairways vs. 1.855 sg:total)
Brendan Steele (2.115 sg:hard fairways vs. 1.627 sg:total)
Patton Kizzire (1.239 sg:hard fairways vs. 0.763 sg:total)
Rory McIlroy (3.242 sg:hard fairways vs. 2.816 sg:total)
Branden Grace (2.192 sg:hard fairways vs. 1.796 sg:total)
Tiger Woods (2.251 sg:hard fairways vs. 1.867 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (2.527 sg:hard fairways vs. 2.155 sg:total)
Phil Mickelson (2.5 sg:hard fairways vs. 2.182 sg:total)
Austin Cook (1.86 sg:hard fairways vs. 1.582 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on hard-to-hit fairways since 2014 are Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Matt Kuchar, Tony Finau, Charley Hoffman.

Someone like Phil Mickelson cracks this list because he’s going to miss fairways whether they are easy to hit or not. The fact that the rest of the field is now missing them too only helps him.

The opposite could be said for someone like Henrik Stenson who finds himself near the bottom here. He could hit a 5 feet landing stripe with some of his drives but if they are sloped then he’ll end up missing his fair share anyway. That eliminates some of his usual accuracy advantages but it doesn’t mean that he should be ignored this week. He’s still a solid option.

Baseline Performance

We now have a list of four golfers that are positive in all of the angles above.

However, Charl Schwartzel doesn’t have the form to instill any confidence. That puts him into GPP-only status, in case you need a value play to use as a dart throw. He did post a top 10 on the Euro Tour last week if you think that’s a strong enough sign that he’s ready to return to form on the PGA TOUR. He will certainly be low owned.

The Specialist

Charley Hoffman
Xander Schauffele
Paul Casey

The specialist this week is Charley Hoffman!

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Hoffman enters off five straight top 30s worldwide. His course fit here suggests another is on the way. His top angles are hard courses and fast greens. It’s no wonder he always pops as a first-round leader candidate at Augusta National.

After that we have Xander Schauffele who is finally getting large enough samples to build his course-fit profile. Given his elite off-the-tee play, it makes sense that he’d excel on long courses but he also seems to really like fast greens.

Last we have Paul Casey. He uses his stellar long-iron play to gain an edge on long courses. That also helps him land it closer on approach to make the putting task on fast greens just a bit easier.

Super Simple Specialist Ratings

The goal of this article is to isolate course fit, to see who should outperform their baseline.

However, anyone with common sense knows that baseline talent (and current form) can’t be ignored when handicapping golf.

Combining Baseline Strokes Gained with Current Form and Specialist Rating, we get a Top 20 ranking that looks like this:

Dustin Johnson
Paul Casey
Rory Mcilroy
Brooks Koepka
Rickie Fowler
Francesco Molinari
Patrick Reed
Justin Rose (Withdrawn)
Patrick Cantlay
Tony Finau
Tommy Fleetwood
Zach Johnson
Charley Hoffman
Jon Rahm
Henrik Stenson
Jordan Spieth
Jason Day
Justin Thomas
Tiger Woods
Bubba Watson

No surprise to see DJ at the top here given his form and long-term stats.

Fowler and Casey are two guys I like in the top 5 but value plays also pop up with Cantlay, ZJ, and Hoffman.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 30 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:TOTAL column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014). It is time-weighted so more recent results count for more than finishes from years ago.

HISTORY column is a weighted performance metric based on course history. I’ve made small adjustments for sample sizes but be sure to check on number of course rounds before blindly following this number.

FORM looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 8 weeks (PGA TOUR and European Tour).

SIMPLE RATING looks at SGTotal, FORM, and SPECIALIST RATING to create a simple rating that includes course fit but doesn’t overweight it.

Golfer DK FD FDRFT SG: Total History Form Bentgrass Long Hard FW Fast Greens Hard Course Specialist Rating Simple Rating
Brooks Koepka $8,900 $11,600 $15,700 2.157 2.081 47.172 0.313 0.247 -0.113 0.289 0.53 0.253 64
Bubba Watson $8,500 $10,000 $15,000 1.855 2.153 29.414 -0.152 0.209 0.586 0.098 0.5 0.248 146
Matt Kuchar $7,700 $10,500 $14,300 2.155 2.259 18.109 0.267 -0.089 0.372 0.305 0.341 0.239 156
Charley Hoffman $7,500 $9,100 $14,200 1.68 2.152 55.304 0.148 0.087 0.267 0.329 0.345 0.235 117
Xander Schauffele $7,900 $9,900 $14,900 1.59 1.82 45 0.137 0.34 0.112 0.503 0.053 0.229 157
Kyle Stanley $7,200 $8,500 $12,800 1.311 0.956 19.396 0.221 -0.023 0.045 0.643 0.204 0.218 259
Charl Schwartzel $7,200 $8,200 $12,600 1.543 1.85 4.351 0.114 0.25 0.047 0.21 0.248 0.174 269
Branden Grace $7,600 $9,600 $14,100 1.796 1.646 12.482 0.029 0.258 0.396 -0.15 0.223 0.151 219
Paul Casey $8,600 $10,800 $15,000 2.465 2.081 46.826 0.124 0.215 0.056 0.308 0.048 0.15 56
Kevin Chappell $7,300 $9,300 $13,800 1.51 2.333 11.366 0.066 0.247 -0.055 0.241 0.204 0.14 273
Thorbjorn Olesen $7,500 $8,100 $13,900 0.873 1.751 45.764 0.682 0 0 0 0 0.136 219
Patrick Cantlay $8,200 $9,700 $14,700 2.25 0 36.182 -0.172 0.358 0 0.317 0.178 0.136 95
Patrick Reed $8,300 $11,300 $14,900 2 1.079 48.57 0.052 0.29 -0.248 0.183 0.304 0.116 89
Hao Tong Li $7,000 $8,300 $12,200 0.286 0 35.464 0.566 0 0 0 0 0.113 258
Tiger Woods $10,800 $11,300 $17,400 1.867 1.353 33.335 -0.005 -0.016 0.383 0.138 0.015 0.103 141
Rickie Fowler $10,000 $11,300 $16,100 2.491 2.335 46.269 0.377 -0.052 -0.206 0.146 0.188 0.091 64
Luke List $7,200 $8,300 $12,900 1.603 0 25.15 -0.083 0.067 0.084 0.363 -0.007 0.085 210
Louis Oosthuizen $7,500 $9,800 $14,200 1.914 1.079 24.869 -0.222 0.127 0.033 0.016 0.463 0.083 167
Rory Mcilroy $11,300 $12,100 $17,600 2.816 2.403 38.405 0.229 -0.16 0.427 0.05 -0.13 0.083 63
Zach Johnson $8,100 $9,800 $14,900 1.862 2.42 49.014 0.02 0.204 0.119 0.058 -0.025 0.075 115
Adam Scott $7,500 $9,500 $13,900 2.157 1.893 10.65 -0.174 0.112 0.209 0.062 0.118 0.066 195
Tony Finau $8,000 $10,600 $14,800 1.917 0 52.361 0.086 0.03 0.047 -0.138 0.21 0.047 98
Kevin Na $7,200 $8,600 $12,600 1.712 1.262 28.473 -0.169 0.111 0.068 -0.045 0.242 0.042 188
Francesco Molinari $9,400 $11,200 $15,800 2.055 1.181 71.886 0.225 -0.051 -0.045 0.168 -0.118 0.036 83
Austin Cook $7,000 $7,700 $12,100 1.582 0 46.405 -0.131 0 0.278 0 0 0.029 173
Marc Leishman $7,900 $9,500 $14,400 1.944 0.45 24.394 0.166 0.062 -0.148 0.168 -0.164 0.017 173
Jon Rahm $9,600 $10,900 $15,900 2.542 1.358 27.335 0.01 0.125 0.229 0.068 -0.358 0.015 118
Jordan Spieth $10,400 $11,400 $16,600 2.808 2.299 21.963 0.203 -0.191 -0.367 0.024 0.402 0.014 125
Ian Poulter $7,300 $9,100 $13,500 1.519 0.704 32.734 0.103 -0.179 -0.324 0.503 -0.054 0.01 214
Matthew Fitzpatrick $7,100 $8,800 $12,800 1.412 0.281 28.578 0.166 -0.044 0 -0.049 -0.043 0.006 244
Shubhankar Sharma $6,700 $7,800 $11,300 0.995 0 16.941 0 0 0 0 0 0 309
Paul Dunne $6,800 $7,500 $11,700 0.678 0 18.481 0 0 0 0 0 0 324
Satoshi Kodaira $6,700 $7,600 $11,100 0.115 0.217 -9.509 0 0 0 0 0 0 378
Jaco Ahlers $6,500 $7,000 $10,200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 371
Wade Ormsby $6,600 $7,000 $10,500 -0.218 0 28.402 0 0 0 0 0 0 306
Ryuko Tokimatsu $6,500 $7,000 $10,400 -0.69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 377
Alexander Bjork $6,800 $7,000 $11,700 -0.783 0 36.878 0 0 0 0 0 0 284
Brandon Stone $6,700 $7,500 $11,500 -1.073 0 11.943 0 0 0 0 0 0 367
Kodai Ichihara $6,500 $7,000 $10,400 -1.317 0 -2.389 0 0 0 0 0 0 392
Emiliano Grillo $7,100 $8,200 $12,600 1.711 0.965 12.576 -0.051 -0.026 -0.077 0.241 -0.114 -0.005 258
Dustin Johnson $11,700 $12,700 $18,500 3.088 1.911 66.332 -0.287 0.031 0.089 0.017 0.067 -0.017 48
Justin Thomas $8,800 $11,400 $15,700 2.291 1.386 30.425 -0.27 0.023 -0.295 0.286 0.1 -0.031 136
Bryson DeChambeau $7,800 $10,200 $14,300 1.586 0.127 39.826 -0.088 -0.057 -0.382 0.523 -0.159 -0.033 204
Pat Perez $7,000 $8,600 $12,100 1.637 -0.128 18.29 -0.096 -0.042 -0.307 -0.038 0.286 -0.039 254
Webb Simpson $7,600 $10,700 $14,300 1.91 1.326 32 -0.147 -0.163 0.138 -0.046 0.016 -0.04 171
Kevin Kisner $7,200 $8,500 $13,000 1.513 1.589 19.988 -0.089 -0.289 0.232 -0.096 0.034 -0.042 278
Jason Day $9,800 $11,700 $16,000 2.804 2.04 25.963 -0.117 -0.091 0.141 -0.135 -0.037 -0.048 135
Si Woo Kim $6,800 $8,400 $11,700 0.852 0.281 20.462 -0.072 -0.19 -0.189 0.04 0.16 -0.05 323
Ross Fisher $6,900 $7,900 $12,000 1.184 0.457 12.973 0.208 -0.277 0 0 -0.235 -0.061 327
Sergio Garcia $7,400 $9,600 $13,900 2.145 1.221 24.92 -0.019 -0.273 -0.026 -0.263 0.24 -0.068 184
Aaron Wise $6,700 $7,200 $11,500 1.343 0 1.985 0 0.022 -0.387 0 0 -0.073 343
Phil Mickelson $7,400 $10,400 $14,200 2.182 0.974 31.014 -0.153 -0.27 0.318 -0.335 0.067 -0.075 150
Jhonattan Vegas $6,800 $7,400 $11,700 0.989 1.228 16.229 -0.154 0.028 0.249 -0.196 -0.413 -0.097 338
Brendan Steele $6,900 $8,700 $11,700 1.627 1.361 11.21 -0.474 -0.148 0.488 -0.203 -0.199 -0.107 291
Daniel Berger $7,100 $9,400 $12,600 1.798 1.666 23.59 0.107 -0.364 0.097 -0.22 -0.186 -0.113 233
Cameron Smith $6,900 $7,800 $11,800 1.063 0 3.366 -0.403 0.245 -0.197 -0.371 0.138 -0.117 358
Alex Noren $8,700 $9,900 $15,400 1.869 1.086 41.499 -0.191 -0.357 0.655 -0.492 -0.207 -0.119 168
Byeong Hun An $7,400 $9,000 $14,000 1.546 -0.141 26.254 0.202 -0.689 0.011 0.008 -0.25 -0.144 261
Hideki Matsuyama $8,400 $10,200 $15,100 2.373 2.428 14.394 0.13 -0.259 -0.148 -0.098 -0.343 -0.144 201
Gary Woodland $7,100 $8,900 $12,500 1.605 0.264 24.46 -0.204 0.019 0.256 -0.396 -0.458 -0.157 258
Tommy Fleetwood $9,200 $11,400 $15,800 2.364 1.358 51.948 -0.373 -0.02 0 -0.298 -0.126 -0.163 108
Russell Knox $7,300 $8,700 $13,500 1.454 1.149 63.082 0.011 -0.094 -0.076 -0.567 -0.221 -0.189 217
Henrik Stenson $9,000 $11,500 $15,600 2.794 1.682 36.312 0.015 -0.109 -0.54 -0.322 -0.056 -0.203 122
Andrew Landry $6,600 $7,000 $10,900 0.708 0 -2.031 -0.586 0.504 -0.999 0 0 -0.216 395
Ted Potter, Jr. $6,500 $7,100 $10,400 0.702 -0.903 9.761 -0.18 -0.829 -0.217 0.138 0 -0.218 387
Brian Harman $7,000 $8,900 $12,100 1.471 0.005 29.586 0.125 -0.392 -0.37 -0.539 -0.046 -0.244 270
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $6,900 $9,000 $11,700 1.119 -0.363 18.814 -0.195 -0.307 0 0.189 -0.944 -0.251 330
Tyrrell Hatton $7,400 $8,800 $13,900 1.779 1.051 46.215 -0.424 0 0 -0.697 -0.139 -0.252 192
Rafa Cabrera Bello $7,000 $9,700 $12,100 1.809 -0.644 13.223 -0.231 -0.506 0 -0.649 -0.025 -0.282 270
Anirban Lahiri $6,800 $7,700 $11,700 1.04 0.693 29.399 0.276 -0.543 -0.411 -0.223 -0.555 -0.291 305
Patton Kizzire $6,600 $7,000 $10,700 0.763 0 -3.632 -0.429 -0.47 0.476 -1.253 -0.874 -0.51 403

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.