Searching for a Specialist: WGC-HSBC
We have one more week of business in Asia before heading back to the States. Like we’ve seen at the CIMB and CJ CUP, this week’s event is a small field event with no cut and is played on a par 72 layout.
Last week our specialist was Keegan Bradley, who never got in a groove, so let’s try to bounce back before we leave the continent.
For the HSBC we will look at Performance on Par 72s, Performance against Strong Fields, Performance in No-Cut Events, and wrap it up with Performance on Bentgrass Greens.
Here we go …
Par 72 Courses
For the third straight week we have a par 72 on hand. That means that any golfers that look to be rounding into form have a good chance of continuing that form in China.
Let’s see what golfers prefer the courses with loads of par 5s to provide some easy scoring chances…
The 10 Par 72 Specialists:
Matthew Fitzpatrick (1.7 sg:par72 vs. 1.215 sg:total)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (0.802 sg:par72 vs. 0.366 sg:total)
Bernd Wiesberger (1.627 sg:par72 vs. 1.245 sg:total)
Marc Leishman (2.087 sg:par72 vs. 1.768 sg:total)
Pat Perez (1.643 sg:par72 vs. 1.335 sg:total)
Francesco Molinari (2.14 sg:par72 vs. 1.833 sg:total)
Thorbjorn Olesen (0.773 sg:par72 vs. 0.471 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (1.272 sg:par72 vs. 0.983 sg:total)
Rafa Cabrera Bello (1.808 sg:par72 vs. 1.56 sg:total)
Si Woo Kim (0.947 sg:par72 vs. 0.717 sg:total)
A lot of Euro Tour flavor on the list.
Pat Perez makes an appearance here after torching TPC Kuala Lumpur and The Club and Nine Bridges. No one would fault him if he finally fizzled this week, but success on par 72s in Asia would suggest he’s ready to keep it rolling.
Strong Field Events
One potential angle here was looking at performance in WGC events. While that also proved noteworthy, we can look at a wider sample size by zooming out and looking at all PGA TOUR events where the OWGR strength of field rating is 400 or higher.
The Top 10 Strong Field Specialists are:
Xander Schauffele (2.284 sg:strong vs. 1.324 sg:total)
Richard Sterne (0.247 sg:strong vs. -0.639 sg:total)
Thorbjorn Olesen (1.066 sg:strong vs. 0.471 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.175 sg:strong vs. 0.826 sg:total)
Alex Noren (1.185 sg:strong vs. 0.922 sg:total)
Chez Reavie (1.495 sg:strong vs. 1.272 sg:total)
Adam Hadwin (1.364 sg:strong vs. 1.144 sg:total)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (1.42 sg:strong vs. 1.215 sg:total)
Adam Scott (2.541 sg:strong vs. 2.376 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (2.356 sg:strong vs. 2.196 sg:total)
It’s really hard to have consistency in these huge events, but the 10 guys above have proven to play up to their competition.
Adam Scott and Matt Kuchar are two that come to mind when it comes to consistency. As for upside, Dustin Johnson is the man the spreadsheet spits out. He’s posted top-5 worthy performances in 25 of his last 50 starts in strong field events. That ratio is best in the field by nearly 10 percent.
No-Cut Events
These events give golfers four guaranteed rounds to let the cream rise to the top. Rather than missing the cut on the number and missing out on a backdoor top 20, golfers can play stress-free golf, knowing they have a paycheck coming at the end of the week.
Most mid-level TOUR pros don’t get a chance to play in a lot of no-cut events, so this also cuts out some of the fat, in that regard.
The Top 10 No-Cut Specialists:
Bernd Wiesberger (1.767 sg:no-cut vs. 1.245 sg:total)
Paul Casey (2.593 sg:no-cut vs. 2.185 sg:total)
Pat Perez (1.702 sg:no-cut vs. 1.335 sg:total)
Daniel Berger (2.007 sg:no-cut vs. 1.648 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (3.004 sg:no-cut vs. 2.676 sg:total)
Rafa Cabrera Bello (1.856 sg:no-cut vs. 1.56 sg:total)
Francesco Molinari (1.989 sg:no-cut vs. 1.833 sg:total)
Adam Scott (2.518 sg:no-cut vs. 2.376 sg:total)
Matt Kuchar (2.277 sg:no-cut vs. 2.196 sg:total)
Branden Grace (1.605 sg:no-cut vs. 1.525 sg:total)
Like I mentioned above, the sample size for this category is lower for most of the journeymen on TOUR, but there is plenty of sample for the guys that play their way into the FedExCup Playoffs and/or WGC events each year.
When it comes to upside, Dustin Johnson stands out again. Since 2014 he’s won five events without a cut. The next closest in the field is Hideki Matsuyama and Patrick Reed, who both have a pair of no-cut victories since 2014.
Bentgrass Greens
When bentgrass greens roll around, it typically gives an edge to the tee-to-green specialists. With bermudagrass there is a skill to reading lies in the rough as well as reading grain on the greens.
Let’s see who prefers to keep it simple with bentgrass…
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The Top 10 Bentgrass Specialists:
Alex Noren (1.645 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.922 sg:total)
Thorbjorn Olesen (1.115 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.471 sg:total)
Scott Hend (1.212 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.569 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (1.899 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.324 sg:total)
Richard Sterne (-0.108 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.639 sg:total)
Thomas Pieters (2.076 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.633 sg:total)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (1.568 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.215 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.107 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.826 sg:total)
Russell Henley (1.507 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.284 sg:total)
Marc Leishman (1.989 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.768 sg:total)
Another list with lots of Euro Tour stars populating it. That makes plenty of sense because a large portion of the Euro Tour events in Europe and the Middle East are played on bentgrass.
Fitzpatrick is one that jumps off the page as his Strokes Gained on Bentgrass has exceeded his performance versus his baseline in each year he’s played on the PGA TOUR.
Kyle Stanley and Russell Henley are two others that show remarkable consistency when it comes to performance on bentgrass greens, from a year-over-year point of view.
The Specialist
Marc Leishman
Matt Kuchar
The specialist this week is Marc Leishman.
The Aussie arrives fresh off a sudden-death loss to Justin Thomas at the CJ CUP. That was played in Asia on a par 72 course, bentgrass greens, and no cut. Sounds pretty similar to this week, right? It would make a lot of sense for Leish to jump right back into contention this week.
On top of that we have Kuchar, who is making his first start of the new season. We can’t rule out rust, but luckily he played in the Bridgestone Open last week (Japan Tour). He only finished T31 in that shortened event, but it is definitely noteworthy because it tells us that he got acclimated to the time zone last week and now he should be good to roll.
Super Simple Specialist Ratings
The goal of this article is to isolate course fit, to see who should outperform their baseline.
However, anyone with common sense knows that baseline talent (and current form) can’t be ignored when handicapping golf.
Combining Baseline Strokes Gained with Current Form and Specialist Rating, we get a Top 20 ranking that looks like this:
Paul Casey
Marc Leishman
Justin Rose
Pat Perez
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Matt Kuchar
Xander Schauffele
Brooks Koepka
Dustin Johnson
Tony Finau
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Hideki Matsuyama
Francesco Molinari
Chez Reavie
Adam Scott
Daniel Berger
Kyle Stanley
Jon Rahm
Bill Haas
Phil Mickelson
Best of luck everyone!
Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 30 rounds to qualify for each angle.
The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014).
Form looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 8 weeks (PGA, Web, and Euro).
| Golfer | DK | FD | FDRFT | SG:Total | Form | Par 72 | No Cut | Bentgrass | Strong Field | Specialist Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thorbjorn Olesen | $7,300 | $6,200 | $14,000 | 0.471 | 11.861 | 0.303 | 0 | 0.645 | 0.595 | 0.308 |
| Xander Schauffele | $8,700 | $7,300 | $16,200 | 1.324 | 35.25 | -0.43 | 0 | 0.575 | 0.961 | 0.221 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | $9,200 | $7,000 | $16,200 | 1.215 | 46.146 | 0.485 | 0 | 0.353 | 0.205 | 0.208 |
| Alex Noren | $7,900 | $7,300 | $15,100 | 0.922 | 12.979 | 0 | 0 | 0.723 | 0.263 | 0.197 |
| Richard Sterne | $7,000 | $5,400 | $12,700 | -0.639 | 32.717 | -0.529 | 0 | 0.531 | 0.886 | 0.178 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | $7,300 | $6,000 | $14,200 | 1.245 | 9.437 | 0.382 | 0.521 | 0.032 | -0.072 | 0.173 |
| Kyle Stanley | $7,500 | $6,600 | $13,900 | 0.826 | 35.25 | 0.065 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.349 | 0.139 |
| Scott Hend | $7,400 | $5,100 | $12,500 | 0.569 | 14.692 | -0.088 | -0.018 | 0.643 | 0.084 | 0.124 |
| Daniel Berger | $8,300 | $8,200 | $15,800 | 1.648 | 16.145 | -0.088 | 0.359 | 0.199 | 0.123 | 0.118 |
| Marc Leishman | $9,900 | $8,700 | $17,700 | 1.768 | 62.145 | 0.32 | 0.012 | 0.221 | 0.032 | 0.117 |
| Thomas Pieters | $7,500 | $7,100 | $14,700 | 1.633 | -4.972 | 0 | 0 | 0.443 | 0.089 | 0.106 |
| Paul Casey | $9,400 | $9,200 | $16,800 | 2.185 | 62.25 | -0.102 | 0.409 | 0.127 | 0.081 | 0.103 |
| Francesco Molinari | $8,000 | $7,500 | $16,400 | 1.833 | 23.198 | 0.307 | 0.156 | -0.104 | 0.123 | 0.096 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | $7,500 | $5,800 | $14,500 | 0.366 | 47.544 | 0.436 | 0 | -0.011 | 0.039 | 0.093 |
| Matt Kuchar | $7,700 | $8,200 | $16,200 | 2.196 | 28.583 | 0.018 | 0.081 | 0.15 | 0.161 | 0.082 |
| Pat Perez | $9,100 | $7,800 | $16,300 | 1.335 | 73.75 | 0.308 | 0.367 | -0.303 | -0.056 | 0.063 |
| Hudson Swafford | $7,200 | $5,300 | $12,300 | 0.88 | 26.088 | 0.07 | 0 | 0.146 | 0.092 | 0.062 |
| Chez Reavie | $7,500 | $6,800 | $14,400 | 1.272 | 44.805 | 0.044 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.223 | 0.059 |
| Dustin Johnson | $11,700 | $10,200 | $19,300 | 2.676 | 24.583 | -0.051 | 0.328 | -0.131 | 0.099 | 0.049 |
| Rafa Cabrera Bello | $8,100 | $8,100 | $15,200 | 1.56 | 43.588 | 0.249 | 0.297 | -0.123 | -0.208 | 0.043 |
| Peter Uihlein | $7,600 | $6,100 | $14,000 | 0.694 | 31.178 | 0.184 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.037 |
| Adam Hadwin | $7,100 | $6,700 | $12,800 | 1.144 | 22.75 | -0.048 | 0 | -0.015 | 0.221 | 0.031 |
| Adam Scott | $7,900 | $8,600 | $15,500 | 2.376 | 6.795 | 0.006 | 0.141 | -0.19 | 0.165 | 0.025 |
| Brooks Koepka | $9,700 | $8,900 | $16,900 | 2.023 | 35.583 | 0.04 | -0.024 | 0.122 | -0.02 | 0.024 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $11,400 | $9,400 | $18,600 | 2.312 | 26.187 | 0.145 | -0.034 | 0.066 | -0.065 | 0.022 |
| Brian Harman | $7,400 | $7,200 | $14,300 | 1.201 | 19.645 | 0.068 | -0.109 | 0.169 | -0.033 | 0.019 |
| Tony Finau | $7,700 | $8,000 | $16,100 | 1.624 | 47.362 | 0.105 | -0.038 | 0.097 | -0.111 | 0.011 |
| Bill Haas | $7,300 | $6,800 | $14,700 | 1.725 | 25.138 | 0.217 | -0.255 | 0.103 | -0.04 | 0.005 |
| Justin Rose | $10,600 | $8,400 | $17,200 | 2.439 | 46.083 | 0.131 | -0.21 | 0.113 | -0.028 | 0.001 |
| Haydn Porteous | $7,100 | $4,700 | $11,800 | 2.544 | 24.386 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Smith | $7,300 | $5,800 | $12,800 | 3.297 | 1.847 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Lorenzo-Vera | $7,100 | $5,000 | $12,300 | 0.816 | 40.646 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paul Dunne | $7,600 | $5,400 | $14,300 | 0.481 | 47.855 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richie Ramsay | $7,000 | $5,200 | $12,800 | 1.028 | 29.825 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chan Kim | $6,900 | $6,100 | $11,400 | 1.659 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Southgate | $7,200 | $5,300 | $11,400 | 1.853 | -4.517 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashun Wu | $6,900 | $4,700 | $11,300 | 0.734 | 14.725 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fabrizio Zanotti | $7,200 | $5,400 | $12,200 | 0.708 | 14.54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fox | $7,000 | $4,700 | $12,500 | 0.874 | 4.184 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xinjun Zhang | $7,000 | $4,900 | $10,700 | 1.336 | -3.808 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daisuke Kataoka | $7,000 | $4,600 | $11,300 | 0.916 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Poom Saksansin | $6,900 | $4,500 | $10,800 | 0.651 | 11.27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Lipsky | $7,100 | $4,900 | $11,900 | -0.394 | 15.316 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hao Tong Li | $7,100 | $5,900 | $13,300 | 0.186 | 6.887 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Graeme Storm | $7,400 | $5,000 | $12,200 | -2.133 | 22.051 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hyun-woo Ryu | $7,200 | $4,500 | $11,700 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yan Wei Liu | $7,100 | $4,500 | $10,600 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hendry | NA | NA | NA | -0.091 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marty Dou | $7,100 | $4,500 | $10,800 | -0.388 | 0.372 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stone | $7,000 | $5,500 | $11,600 | -1.063 | 2.907 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shugo Imahira | $7,200 | $5,100 | $12,500 | -0.438 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| WC Liang | $6,900 | $4,600 | $10,700 | -0.663 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Griffin | $6,900 | $4,500 | $10,800 | -2.405 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yi Cao | $7,000 | $4,500 | $11,100 | -2.778 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Dodt | $6,900 | $4,800 | $11,000 | -0.227 | -6.467 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashley Hall | $6,900 | $4,500 | $10,700 | -0.804 | -1.882 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Phachara Khongwatmai | $7,200 | $4,500 | $11,200 | -0.93 | -10.97 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gavin Green | $7,000 | $4,500 | $12,200 | -1.35 | -9.833 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SSP Chawrasia | $6,900 | $4,500 | $10,800 | -1.204 | -12.94 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alexander Levy | $7,500 | $5,600 | $13,500 | 0.468 | 16.106 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.026 | -0.005 |
| Phil Mickelson | $8,800 | $8,200 | $16,300 | 1.998 | 41.638 | 0.204 | -0.102 | -0.04 | -0.107 | -0.009 |
| Ross Fisher | $8,400 | $7,200 | $16,600 | 1.603 | 36.429 | 0.041 | 0 | -0.084 | -0.009 | -0.01 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $7,400 | $6,900 | $14,400 | 1.744 | 26.088 | -0.148 | 0.071 | 0.028 | -0.035 | -0.017 |
| Branden Grace | $7,600 | $7,700 | $15,100 | 1.525 | 30.084 | -0.218 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.002 | -0.017 |
| Russell Henley | $7,600 | $6,300 | $15,000 | 1.284 | 29.645 | 0.011 | -0.299 | 0.223 | -0.061 | -0.025 |
| Lucas Glover | $7,800 | $6,200 | NA | 0.983 | 50.805 | 0.289 | 0 | -0.543 | 0.123 | -0.026 |
| Jon Rahm | $10,000 | $9,300 | $17,500 | 2.408 | 54.299 | -0.153 | 0 | -0.013 | 0.003 | -0.033 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $7,400 | $5,200 | $12,300 | 0.798 | -7.25 | 0.129 | -0.38 | -0.152 | 0.141 | -0.052 |
| Jason Day | $10,200 | $9,600 | $17,500 | 2.732 | 44.645 | -0.256 | -0.046 | -0.018 | 0.046 | -0.055 |
| Hideto Tanihara | $7,200 | $5,700 | $12,300 | 0.508 | -2.847 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.321 | -0.064 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $8,900 | $7,300 | $15,800 | 1.557 | 28.583 | 0 | 0 | -0.342 | 0 | -0.068 |
| Charles Howell III | $7,100 | NA | $12,800 | 1.295 | 0.397 | 0.185 | -0.068 | 0.023 | -0.515 | -0.075 |
| Patrick Reed | $8,500 | $7,800 | $16,200 | 1.756 | 36.145 | -0.08 | -0.28 | 0.024 | -0.121 | -0.091 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $8,600 | $7,600 | $16,100 | 1.344 | 18.789 | -0.353 | 0 | -0.236 | 0.017 | -0.115 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $8,200 | $8,300 | $16,700 | 1.72 | 64.251 | 0 | 0 | -0.489 | -0.131 | -0.124 |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,300 | $5,100 | $12,300 | 0.717 | -9.412 | 0.23 | -0.848 | 0.043 | -0.17 | -0.149 |
| Henrik Stenson | $9,600 | $9,000 | $16,700 | 2.575 | 1.997 | -0.559 | -0.167 | -0.013 | -0.047 | -0.157 |
| Wesley Bryan | $7,300 | $5,100 | $12,000 | 0.787 | 0.588 | -1.032 | 0 | -0.332 | -0.694 | -0.412 |