Searching for a Specialist: WGC-HSBC Champions
Welcome back for another specialist search as we head to Shanghai for the WGC-HSBC Champions.
Last week we had two of the four specialists land top 10s (Piercy and Hahn) while Reed and Woodland both showed a bit of rust with Reed playing for the first time since the emotional Ryder Cup win and Woodland teeing it up for the first time since getting married.
This week we have another small field with no cut. The key angles we will look at are performance on bentgrass greens, par 72 layouts, and finish up with performance in Asia.
I will also throw some information about the Sanderson Farms at the bottom but DK is giving the HSBC the A-team treatment, so we will keep our focus primarily on the WGC-HSBC.
Here we go…
Par 72 Courses
Sheshan International is a par 72 and it’s played host to the HSBC except for 2012 when Mission Hills hosted.
When par 72s hit the schedule, we can focus on the golfers that like to take advantage of the par 5s. Some golfers like to know they have that extra security blanket of four par 5s, allowing them to bounce-back from costly mistakes on par 3s and/or par 4s.
The Top 10 Par 72 Specialists are:
Danny Willett (2.131 sg:par72 vs. 1.689 sg:total)
Justin Thomas (1.727 sg:par72 vs. 1.386 sg:total)
Francesco Molinari (1.684 sg:par72 vs. 1.363 sg:total)
Roberto Castro (0.738 sg:par72 vs. 0.425 sg:total)
J.B. Holmes (1.59 sg:par72 vs. 1.278 sg:total)
Bernd Wiesberger (1.263 sg:par72 vs. 0.974 sg:total)
Kevin Na (1.776 sg:par72 vs. 1.558 sg:total)
Rafa Cabrera Bello (1.626 sg:par72 vs. 1.411 sg:total)
Bill Haas (1.652 sg:par72 vs. 1.452 sg:total)
Jimmy Walker (1.822 sg:par72 vs. 1.627 sg:total)
There is a good mix of bombers and great wedge players on the list above. Proving again there is more than one way to heat up leftover pizza.
Francesco Molinari has a remarkable 55% top-25 rate over his last 20 starts on par 72s. Perhaps the added par 5s put less pressure on his flat stick, which is traditionally the weakest part of his game.
While Kevin Kisner finished runner-up here last year, that was one of only six top 25s over his last 33 starts on par 72s. While the Georgia Bulldog can rack up birdies with the best of them, I wouldn’t expect a repeat of last year’s runner-up finish.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 27
Performance in Asia
The region where golf is being played cannot be ignored. More of the PGA TOUR events are hosted stateside, so that does not become a huge issue, but flying half-way around the world is not for everyone.
Add in the local type of grasses and climate, and certain players can definitely have an advantage.
Since the PGA TOUR only visits Asia a few times a year, I’ve also included Euro Tour results in his angle. Being able to adjust for strength of field helps make this possible and it shows us seven golfers that excel in Asia.
The 7 Asian Golf Specialists remaining:
Byeong Hun An (2.511 sg:asian continent vs. 1.116 sg:total)
Thongchai Jaidee (1.487 sg:asian continent vs. 0.225 sg:total)
Bernd Wiesberger (1.978 sg:asian continent vs. 0.974 sg:total)
Rory McIlroy (3.367 sg:asian continent vs. 2.84 sg:total)
Scott Hend (1.108 sg:asian continent vs. 0.612 sg:total)
Patrick Reed (1.821 sg:asian continent vs. 1.475 sg:total)
George Coetzee (0.848 sg:asian continent vs. 0.701 sg:total)
Byeong Hun An is the clear standout here. He’s posted top 25s in 10 of his last 12 starts in Asia, across the PGA TOUR and Euro Tour.
Bernd Wiesberger is nearly as impressive, collecting top 25s in 9-of-12 in Asia, recently.
On the flip side, Andrew Johnston is only 2-for-11 in collecting top 25s on the Asian Continent. You might be able to overlook that given his recent rise in ranks. He’s improved dramatically as a golfer over the last 9 months alone.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 18
Bentgrass Greens
The last angle is our search for a true specialist is performance on bentgrass greens.
Bentgrass greens often bring the average putters right back into the mix, because there is no grain to read. That’s one less step in their putting process.
Of course the location where a golfer grew up plays a big part in this. If a golfer grew up on bermuda, they likely prefer reading grainy greens, so they may lose some of their edge when they head to a bentgrass course.
At this stage, we lose all but one, and here is the order they are eliminated (top being closer to a bentgrass specialist):
Scott Hend
Rory Mcilroy
Thongchai Jaidee
Bernd Wiesberger
George Coetzee
Byeong Hun An
GOLFERS REMAINING: 1
The Specialists
Patrick Reed
Our specialist this week is Patrick Reed!
The American Hero is our lone specialist this week. That’s due to the small field on foreign soil. It takes out a few of our normal options, but Reed should certainly defend the specialist tag well this week.
Reed has finished T22 and T7 in two trips to Sheshan International. Since 2014, Reed is a member of the 200-200 club (a club I just made up), gaining 200+ strokes on par 72 courses as well as bentgrass greens. The others in the field that also crack this list: Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Matt Kuchar.
Scott Hend was very close to being a specialist, but he’s only played 18 PGA TOUR rounds on bentgrass so we lost him due to small sample size.
The Anti-Specialists
If we look for the exact opposite of our specialists, we can find some potential fades. These are golfers that show negative numbers in all three angles this week.
Henrik Stenson
Charl Schwartzel
Soren Kjeldsen
You don’t have to fully fade these golfers, but if you are looking to shrink your core exposure or were just on the fence about these three, the numbers suggest you should look elsewhere this week.
Best of luck everyone!
Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle.
The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014),
Form is the strokes gained per round over the last 10 weeks (including European Tour) and all the other columns will show you their performance for that angle (per round) in comparison to the baseline strokes gained with positive numbers being a good thing.
| Golfer | DK | SG:Total | Form | Bentgrass | Par 72 | Asia | Specialist Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thongchai Jaidee | $7,100 | 0.225 | 0.806 | -0.063 | 0.094 | 1.262 | 0.431 |
| Alex Noren | $8,000 | -0.28 | 1.467 | 0 | 0 | 1.282 | 0.427 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | $7,700 | 0.974 | 1.617 | -0.131 | 0.289 | 1.004 | 0.387 |
| Byeong Hun An | $7,600 | 1.167 | 1.065 | -0.598 | 0.115 | 1.395 | 0.304 |
| Bradley Dredge | $5,900 | -0.07 | 0.933 | 0 | 0 | 0.771 | 0.257 |
| Jeung-hun Wang | $5,800 | -1.13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.763 | 0.254 |
| Hao Tong Li | $7,000 | 0.454 | 0.736 | 0 | 0 | 0.72 | 0.24 |
| Ashun Wu | $5,700 | -0.801 | -0.437 | 0 | 0 | 0.701 | 0.234 |
| Richard Bland | $7,300 | 0 | 1.336 | 0 | 0 | 0.686 | 0.229 |
| Scott Hend | $7,100 | 0.411 | 1.319 | 0 | 0.165 | 0.496 | 0.22 |
| Rory Mcilroy | $12,100 | 2.84 | 2.448 | -0.041 | 0.142 | 0.527 | 0.209 |
| Martin Kaymer | $8,700 | 1.234 | 1.586 | 0.135 | -0.085 | 0.555 | 0.202 |
| Thomas Pieters | $8,100 | 0.709 | 1.224 | 0 | 0 | 0.548 | 0.183 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $7,800 | 1.408 | 1.704 | 0.136 | -0.014 | 0.4 | 0.174 |
| Alexander Levy | $7,300 | 0.693 | 1.315 | 0 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.137 |
| Patrick Reed | $9,000 | 1.498 | 1.634 | 0.009 | 0.048 | 0.346 | 0.134 |
| Marcus Fraser | $6,200 | 0.576 | 0.018 | 0 | 0 | 0.393 | 0.131 |
| Ross Fisher | $7,800 | 0.977 | 0.902 | 0 | 0 | 0.366 | 0.122 |
| Rikard Karlberg | $6,100 | -0.329 | 0.617 | 0 | 0 | 0.355 | 0.118 |
| J.B. Holmes | $7,200 | 1.278 | 1.062 | -0.001 | 0.312 | 0 | 0.104 |
| Miguel Tabuena | $6,200 | -1.59 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0.275 | 0.092 |
| Nathan Holman | $5,700 | -0.171 | -0.712 | 0 | 0 | 0.271 | 0.09 |
| Danny Willett | $8,000 | 1.689 | 1.066 | -0.149 | 0.442 | -0.031 | 0.087 |
| Chris Wood | $6,800 | 0.932 | 0.703 | 0 | -0.138 | 0.195 | 0.019 |
| Francesco Molinari | $8,300 | 1.363 | 0.872 | -0.276 | 0.321 | 0 | 0.015 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $6,600 | 0.462 | 0.898 | -0.119 | 0.162 | 0 | 0.014 |
| George Coetzee | $6,500 | 0.701 | 0.375 | -0.141 | 0.029 | 0.147 | 0.012 |
| Scott Piercy | $7,900 | 0.853 | 1.439 | -0.093 | 0.103 | 0 | 0.003 |
| Bill Haas | $6,900 | 1.449 | 0.648 | -0.196 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.001 |
| Young-han Song | $6,500 | 1.508 | 1.518 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| K.T. Kim | $5,900 | 0.725 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hideto Tanihara | $6,000 | 0.598 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacques Blaauw | $6,600 | 0 | -0.92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Burmester | $6,600 | 0 | 0.218 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zecheng Dou | $6,100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Millar | $6,400 | 0 | -0.51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chan Shih-chang | $7,000 | 0 | -1.482 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Huilin Zhang | $6,300 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xinjun Zhang | $5,800 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wen-Chong Liang | $6,800 | -0.432 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Zunic | $6,000 | -1.707 | 1.217 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Soomin Lee | $6,700 | -1.705 | -0.499 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Walker | $7,400 | 1.627 | 0.77 | -0.22 | 0.195 | 0 | -0.008 |
| Matt Kuchar | $7,900 | 1.962 | 1.149 | -0.162 | 0.136 | 0 | -0.009 |
| Justin Thomas | $9,300 | 1.311 | 1.851 | -0.37 | 0.341 | 0 | -0.01 |
| Branden Grace | $7,500 | 1.314 | 0.357 | -0.412 | -0.304 | 0.684 | -0.011 |
| Dustin Johnson | $11,900 | 2.509 | 3.01 | -0.18 | 0.107 | 0 | -0.024 |
| Gary Woodland | $6,700 | 1.351 | 1.512 | -0.256 | 0.179 | 0 | -0.025 |
| Roberto Castro | $7,600 | 0.416 | 1.637 | -0.397 | 0.313 | 0 | -0.028 |
| Rickie Fowler | $8,400 | 1.745 | 1.238 | 0.16 | -0.244 | 0 | -0.028 |
| Richard Sterne | $7,200 | -0.785 | 0.97 | 0.441 | -0.554 | 0 | -0.038 |
| Kevin Kisner | $6,900 | 1.047 | 1.009 | -0.105 | -0.015 | 0 | -0.04 |
| Daniel Berger | $7,800 | 1.364 | 0.812 | -0.182 | 0.02 | 0 | -0.054 |
| Kevin Na | $7,200 | 1.55 | 0.834 | -0.382 | 0.218 | 0 | -0.055 |
| Paul Casey | $9,600 | 1.742 | 2.871 | -0.154 | -0.032 | 0 | -0.062 |
| Joost Luiten | $6,400 | 0.667 | 0.871 | -0.481 | -0.322 | 0.601 | -0.067 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $10,000 | 1.937 | 2.201 | -0.369 | 0.127 | 0 | -0.081 |
| Lee Westwood | $7,700 | 1.278 | 0.759 | -0.11 | 0.061 | -0.206 | -0.085 |
| Adam Scott | $9,400 | 2.216 | 2.562 | -0.295 | 0.012 | 0 | -0.094 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | $7,100 | 0.998 | 0.822 | 0 | 0 | -0.289 | -0.096 |
| Rafa Cabrera Bello | $7,600 | 1.375 | 1.689 | -0.348 | 0.215 | -0.179 | -0.104 |
| Sean O’Hair | $7,300 | 0.566 | 1.092 | -0.328 | -0.006 | 0 | -0.111 |
| Russell Knox | $8,600 | 1.321 | 1.362 | -0.168 | -0.175 | 0 | -0.114 |
| Bubba Watson | $8,800 | 2.121 | 1.339 | -0.311 | -0.064 | 0 | -0.125 |
| Brooks Koepka | $8,500 | 1.695 | 0.402 | -0.332 | -0.05 | 0 | -0.128 |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,700 | 1.19 | 2.019 | -0.304 | -0.088 | 0 | -0.131 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $7,400 | 1.432 | 1.637 | -0.265 | 0.19 | -0.324 | -0.133 |
| Kevin Chappell | $7,500 | 1.151 | 1.362 | -0.158 | -0.244 | 0 | -0.134 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $7,400 | 1.53 | 1.122 | 0 | 0 | -0.54 | -0.18 |
| Ryan Moore | $8,900 | 1.398 | 1.634 | -0.361 | -0.198 | 0 | -0.186 |
| Gregory Bourdy | $7,000 | 1.664 | 0.756 | 0 | 0 | -0.565 | -0.188 |
| Sergio Garcia | $9,100 | 2.273 | 1.248 | -0.297 | 0.009 | -0.322 | -0.203 |
| Jason Kokrak | $6,300 | 1.027 | 1.456 | -0.592 | -0.137 | 0 | -0.243 |
| Soren Kjeldsen | $6,800 | 1.285 | 1.368 | -0.028 | -0.172 | -0.536 | -0.245 |
| Shane Lowry | $6,700 | 1.471 | 0.969 | -0.704 | -0.291 | 0 | -0.332 |
| Andrew Johnston | $7,500 | 1.428 | 1.198 | 0 | 0 | -1.139 | -0.38 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $8,200 | 1.528 | 1.01 | -0.21 | -0.069 | -0.951 | -0.41 |
| Henrik Stenson | $9,800 | 2.354 | 0.717 | -0.051 | -0.446 | -0.791 | -0.43 |
Sanderson Farms
For the Sanderson Farms, I found five angles proving to be correlated nicely with success here. Nobody fits the specialist bill in ALL five, but Ben Martin passes the test in each of the top four angles, although his form is not ideal.
If we look at just the top three angles then our specialist would be Patton Kizzire, with Ben Martin, David Toms, Peter Malnati, and Derek Ernst serving as secondary GPP specialists.
Here are the top 10 for each angle:
#1 Easy-to-Hit Greens
Russell Henley (1.299 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.785 sg:total)
Ben Martin (1.006 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.636 sg:total)
Kevin Tway (-0.507 sg:easy GIR vs. -0.745 sg:total)
Jason Bohn (1.031 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.797 sg:total)
Peter Malnati (0.017 sg:easy GIR vs. -0.21 sg:total)
John Rollins (-0.465 sg:easy GIR vs. -0.656 sg:total)
Patton Kizzire (1.006 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.822 sg:total)
D.J. Trahan (-0.615 sg:easy GIR vs. -0.755 sg:total)
Jerry Kelly (0.984 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.863 sg:total)
Michael Putnam (0.283 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.178 sg:total)
#2 Weak Field Events
Chris Kirk (1.739 sg:weak vs. 1.177 sg:total)
Steven Bowditch (0.013 sg:weak vs. -0.36 sg:total)
David Toms (0.883 sg:weak vs. 0.583 sg:total)
Jason Bohn (1.096 sg:weak vs. 0.797 sg:total)
Patton Kizzire (1.112 sg:weak vs. 0.822 sg:total)
Scott Stallings (0.357 sg:weak vs. 0.068 sg:total)
Boo Weekley (0.717 sg:weak vs. 0.451 sg:total)
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano (0.211 sg:weak vs. 0.022 sg:total)
Peter Malnati (-0.059 sg:weak vs. -0.21 sg:total)
Sam Saunders (0.062 sg:weak vs. -0.064 sg:total)
#3 Less-than-Driver Courses
Tyler Aldridge (0.796 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.137 sg:total)
Stuart Appleby (0.995 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.454 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (0.863 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.444 sg:total)
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano (0.424 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.022 sg:total)
Whee Kim (0.576 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.233 sg:total)
Morgan Hoffmann (0.774 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.432 sg:total)
Patton Kizzire (1.162 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.822 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (0.549 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.255 sg:total)
Matt Jones (1.036 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.751 sg:total)
Ben Martin (0.912 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.636 sg:total)
#4 Bermuda Greens
Martin Flores (0.518 sg:bermuda vs. 0.32 sg:total)
Bryce Molder (0.785 sg:bermuda vs. 0.617 sg:total)
John Rollins (-0.49 sg:bermuda vs. -0.656 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (0.405 sg:bermuda vs. 0.255 sg:total)
Jason Gore (0.296 sg:bermuda vs. 0.182 sg:total)
Ben Martin (0.704 sg:bermuda vs. 0.636 sg:total)
John Merrick (-0.033 sg:bermuda vs. -0.089 sg:total)
Seung-yul Noh (0.496 sg:bermuda vs. 0.445 sg:total)
Stuart Appleby (0.486 sg:bermuda vs. 0.454 sg:total)
#5 Par 72 Courses
Erik Compton (1.026 sg:par72 vs. 0.267 sg:total)
Patton Kizzire (1.48 sg:par72 vs. 0.822 sg:total)
Luke List (1.376 sg:par72 vs. 0.853 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (0.707 sg:par72 vs. 0.255 sg:total)
Cameron Beckman (-1.036 sg:par72 vs. -1.482 sg:total)
Martin Flores (0.76 sg:par72 vs. 0.32 sg:total)
Chad Collins (0.548 sg:par72 vs. 0.133 sg:total)
Chesson Hadley (0.492 sg:par72 vs. 0.113 sg:total)
Angel Cabrera (0.455 sg:par72 vs. 0.095 sg:total)
Hiroshi Iwata (0.544 sg:par72 vs. 0.184 sg:total)