Searching for a Specialist: WGC-HSBC Champions
Spending one more week in Asia, let’s have a look at Sheshan International Golf Club to see who might fit the course this week.
The idea of this article is to highlight a few angles that typically correlate with success at a particular course or tournament.
Reviewing our search from last week, our specialists were Hideki Matsuyama and Marc Leishman. Both finished in a share of 18th place which wasn’t a lineup killer but it left us wanting more.
This week we look at performance on Bentgrass Greens, Par 72 courses, performance in No-Cut Events, and performance in Strong Fields.
Bentgrass Greens
For the second week in a row, we have bentgrass greens to deal with.
Bentgrass greens typically tend to favor the elite ball-strikers as you can tell by most of this top-10 list below.
The 10 Bentgrass Specialists:
Satoshi Kodaira (0.631 sg:bentgrass vs. -0.122 sg:total)
Thorbjorn Olesen (1.799 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.152 sg:total)
Hao Tong Li (0.883 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.353 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (2.751 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.316 sg:total)
Thomas Pieters (1.889 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.48 sg:total)
Andrew Putnam (1.218 sg:bentgrass vs. 0.859 sg:total)
Justin Rose (3.096 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.779 sg:total)
Francesco Molinari (2.336 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.056 sg:total)
Rory McIlroy (3.024 sg:bentgrass vs. 2.828 sg:total)
Keegan Bradley (1.824 sg:bentgrass vs. 1.633 sg:total)
Quantity: The golfers that have the most strokes gained on bentgrass since 2014 are Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, and Jason Day.
Last week we talked about how Koepka thrives on bentgrass due to his aggressive play style, despite growing up in Florida.
The same could be said for Molinari, Rory, and Keegan who all have homes in Florida but prefer playing on bentgrass greens.
Par 72 Courses
Another week of the wraparound schedule and another par 72 for these pros to deal with.
Even the Sanderson Farms features a par 72.
With four par 5s to handle, the big hitters tend to outscore their finishing position, when it comes to racking up fantasy points.
The Top 10 Par 72 Specialists:
Xinjun Zhang (0.918 sg:par72 vs. 0.309 sg:total)
Rory McIlroy (3.302 sg:par72 vs. 2.828 sg:total)
Andrew Putnam (1.266 sg:par72 vs. 0.859 sg:total)
Byeong Hun An (1.945 sg:par72 vs. 1.554 sg:total)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (1.755 sg:par72 vs. 1.367 sg:total)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (1.366 sg:par72 vs. 1.04 sg:total)
Ian Poulter (1.784 sg:par72 vs. 1.547 sg:total)
Keegan Bradley (1.857 sg:par72 vs. 1.633 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (1.84 sg:par72 vs. 1.62 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (2.501 sg:par72 vs. 2.316 sg:total)
Quantity: Golfers with the most weighted strokes gained on par 72 courses since 2014 are Justin Rose, Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, and Rory McIlroy
As you can tell from the list above, it’s not always about length when it comes to performance on par 72s.
No-Cut Events
With a guaranteed 72 holes this week, golfers have a bit of pressure taken off their shoulders.
One bad round isn’t the end of the world, and some golfers elevate their game when they don’t have that added pressure of a cut-line sweat.
The Top 10 No-Cut Specialists:
Cameron Smith (1.915 sg:no-cut vs. 1.224 sg:total)
Keegan Bradley (2.17 sg:no-cut vs. 1.633 sg:total)
Tyrrell Hatton (2.397 sg:no-cut vs. 1.961 sg:total)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (1.716 sg:no-cut vs. 1.367 sg:total)
Rory McIlroy (3.177 sg:no-cut vs. 2.828 sg:total)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (1.358 sg:no-cut vs. 1.04 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.689 sg:no-cut vs. 1.4 sg:total)
Rafa Cabrera Bello (2.15 sg:no-cut vs. 1.879 sg:total)
Thomas Pieters (1.738 sg:no-cut vs. 1.48 sg:total)
Jon Rahm (2.712 sg:no-cut vs. 2.478 sg:total)
Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained in no-cut events since 2014 are Dustin Johnson, Paul Casey, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, and Rory McIlroy
The hot-head trio of Hatton, Rahm, and Pieters all rank inside the top 10 on this list above. Perhaps the lack of a cut line helps them stay a little more level-headed.
Strong Field Events
For simplicity sakes, this angle looks at all events where the OWGR strength of field rating is 400 or higher.
This lets us know who ups their game when they compete against the best in the world.
The Top 10 Strong Field Specialists:
Xander Schauffele (1.96 sg:strong vs. 1.573 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.778 sg:strong vs. 1.4 sg:total)
Thorbjorn Olesen (1.489 sg:strong vs. 1.152 sg:total)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (1.317 sg:strong vs. 1.04 sg:total)
C.T. Pan (1.328 sg:strong vs. 1.12 sg:total)
Tony Finau (2.201 sg:strong vs. 2.02 sg:total)
Hao Tong Li (0.513 sg:strong vs. 0.353 sg:total)
Yuta Ikeda (0.343 sg:strong vs. 0.203 sg:total)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (1.503 sg:strong vs. 1.367 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (1.752 sg:strong vs. 1.62 sg:total)
Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained against strong fields since 2014 are Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Jason Day, and Hideki Matsuyama.
Xander won the TOUR Championship as a rookie, has a few close calls in majors, and also a near-miss at THE PLAYERS. He’s quickly established himself as a big-game hunter.
The Specialists
Rory McIlroy
Kyle Stanley
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Ian Poulter
Tony Finau
The specialist this week is Rory McIlroy!
Rory has a lot of success here at Sheshan but has never finished the job, or even finished on the podium. That’s pretty surprising when you consider he has finished T11 or better in all six appearances at Sheshan.
Stanley finished T5 here last year in his Sheshan debut. His straight-shooting methods do him good when it comes to avoiding all the water here.
Fitzpatrick benefits from not needing to be long off-the-tee here at Sheshan. Three of his seven best PGA TOUR finishes have come at this event, on this course.
Ian Poulter is the King of the Fall (and Winter). Isolating his PGA TOUR results doesn’t even do him justice. If you look at his overall career he has 8 of his 16 wins between October and December. This is the time of the year when Poulter likes to shine.
Our specialists provide a lot of variety in terms of play style. Rory and Finau bring the bomb-and-gouge method while Stanley, Fitz, and Poulter earn their strokes from fairway to pin.
In 2013, Poulter finished runner-up to DJ. In 2014, Tim Clark finished runner-up to Bubba Watson. Short-hitting Russell Knox won the following year. This course allows a few different styles of play to thrive.
The Anti-Specialists
We have a few golfers that qualify as specialists this week but who does the opposite, grading out negatively in all of the angles?
Billy Horschel
Jason Day
Chez Reavie
The worst specialist rating of this bunch is just -0.164 so none of them are absolute, must fades.
However, in a limited field of just 78 golfers, I prefer to tighten the core, so these golfers probably won’t make my final cut.
Jason Day also scares me because his wife is due with their third child in a few weeks. Not what you want to hear from someone that is already prone to WDs.
Super Simple Specialist Ratings
The goal of this article is to isolate course fit, to see who should outperform their baseline.
However, anyone with common sense knows that baseline talent (and current form) can’t be ignored when handicapping golf.
Combining Baseline Strokes Gained with Current Form and Specialist Rating, we get a Top 20 ranking that looks like this:
Rory Mcilroy
Justin Rose
Brooks Koepka
Tony Finau
Hideki Matsuyama
Paul Casey
Jon Rahm
Dustin Johnson
Tommy Fleetwood
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Keegan Bradley
Francesco Molinari
Tyrrell Hatton
Jason Day
Xander Schauffele
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Kyle Stanley
Eddie Pepperell
Adam Scott
Patrick Cantlay
Rory grades out 2nd in long-term performance, 10th in form over the last 8 weeks, and first in specialist rating. It’s easy to see why he’s #1 on this list.
Best of luck everyone!
Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 30 rounds to qualify for each angle.
The SG:TOTAL column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014). It is time-weighted so more recent results count for more than finishes from years ago.
HISTORY column is a weighted performance metric based on course history. I’ve made small adjustments for sample sizes but be sure to check on the number of course rounds before blindly following this number.
FORM looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 8 weeks (PGA TOUR and European Tour).
SIMPLE RATING looks at SGTotal, FORM, and SPECIALIST RATING to create a simple rating that includes course fit but doesn’t overweight it.
| Golfer | DK | FD | FDRFT | SG: Total | History | Form | Bent | Strong | No Cut | Par 72 | Specialist Rating | Simple Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Mcilroy | $10,700 | $11,900 | $17,700 | 2.828 | 2.854 | 43.729 | 0.195 | 0.122 | 0.348 | 0.474 | 0.285 | 27 |
| Kyle Stanley | $7,600 | $9,000 | $14,000 | 1.4 | 1.983 | 27.002 | 0.171 | 0.379 | 0.289 | 0.177 | 0.254 | 157 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | $8,700 | $9,600 | $14,700 | 1.367 | 2.198 | 42.402 | 0.059 | 0.136 | 0.349 | 0.389 | 0.233 | 133 |
| Keegan Bradley | $7,500 | $9,400 | $14,000 | 1.633 | 0.622 | 26.767 | 0.191 | -0.065 | 0.537 | 0.224 | 0.222 | 122 |
| Satoshi Kodaira | $6,300 | $7,600 | $10,700 | -0.122 | -0.893 | -15.115 | 0.753 | 0.028 | 0 | 0 | 0.195 | 364 |
| Andrew Putnam | $7,000 | $7,700 | $11,700 | 0.859 | 0 | 14.805 | 0.359 | -0.007 | 0 | 0.407 | 0.19 | 233 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | $6,900 | $9,300 | $12,300 | 1.04 | 0.437 | -9.49 | -0.168 | 0.277 | 0.318 | 0.327 | 0.189 | 288 |
| Xinjun Zhang | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,200 | 0.309 | 1.012 | -3.546 | 0.075 | 0 | 0 | 0.609 | 0.171 | 316 |
| Ian Poulter | $8,600 | $9,700 | $14,500 | 1.547 | 1.641 | 11.962 | 0.114 | 0.025 | 0.13 | 0.237 | 0.127 | 181 |
| Tony Finau | $9,900 | $10,800 | $16,500 | 2.02 | 1.522 | 54.247 | 0.098 | 0.181 | 0.126 | 0.029 | 0.108 | 61 |
| Brooks Koepka | $11,000 | $12,600 | $18,300 | 2.316 | 2.057 | 63.482 | 0.435 | 0.023 | -0.261 | 0.184 | 0.095 | 42 |
| Cameron Smith | $8,200 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.224 | -0.337 | 29.502 | -0.248 | -0.168 | 0.69 | 0.093 | 0.092 | 175 |
| Rafa Cabrera Bello | $8,900 | $11,000 | $15,300 | 1.879 | 2.11 | 26.305 | 0.01 | -0.007 | 0.271 | 0.026 | 0.075 | 115 |
| Yuta Ikeda | $6,600 | $7,200 | $10,500 | 0.203 | 0.331 | 0 | 0.141 | 0.14 | 0 | 0 | 0.07 | 308 |
| Paul Casey | $9,200 | $11,400 | $15,900 | 2.348 | 2.192 | 36.511 | -0.005 | 0.033 | 0.206 | 0.031 | 0.066 | 69 |
| C.T. Pan | $7,000 | $8,200 | $12,700 | 1.12 | 0 | 23.805 | 0.125 | 0.209 | 0 | -0.11 | 0.056 | 205 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | $7,900 | $8,900 | $13,900 | 1.152 | 1.453 | 14.047 | 0.647 | 0.337 | 0 | -0.764 | 0.055 | 225 |
| Francesco Molinari | $9,800 | $11,300 | $16,000 | 2.056 | 1.887 | 23.071 | 0.279 | -0.012 | -0.07 | 0.019 | 0.054 | 122 |
| Justin Rose | $11,200 | $12,100 | $18,400 | 2.779 | 2.743 | 61.722 | 0.317 | 0.037 | -0.256 | 0.104 | 0.051 | 36 |
| Jon Rahm | $9,300 | $11,100 | $16,100 | 2.478 | 0.752 | 29.729 | 0.061 | -0.115 | 0.234 | 0.012 | 0.048 | 79 |
| Pat Perez | $7,200 | $8,800 | $12,800 | 1.526 | 1.223 | 0 | -0.088 | 0.003 | 0.105 | 0.16 | 0.045 | 220 |
| Thomas Pieters | $7,100 | $9,200 | $13,300 | 1.48 | 0.633 | 1.145 | 0.409 | 0.027 | 0.258 | -0.576 | 0.029 | 216 |
| Brandon Stone | $6,500 | $7,200 | $11,700 | -0.49 | -2.325 | 7.834 | 0 | 0.105 | 0 | 0 | 0.026 | 343 |
| Charley Hoffman | $6,900 | $8,700 | $12,800 | 1.62 | 0 | 0.887 | 0.025 | 0.132 | -0.285 | 0.22 | 0.023 | 205 |
| WC Liang | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,100 | -0.439 | 0.236 | 0 | 0 | 0.065 | 0 | 0 | 0.016 | 364 |
| Xander Schauffele | $8,100 | $10,200 | $14,400 | 1.573 | 0.291 | 36.502 | 0.046 | 0.387 | 0.138 | -0.522 | 0.012 | 130 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $10,100 | $11,400 | $16,700 | 2.397 | 1.84 | 51.964 | 0.063 | -0.079 | -0.001 | 0.045 | 0.007 | 62 |
| Lucas Bjerregaard | $7,800 | $7,900 | $13,700 | 0.079 | 0 | 76.068 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 210 |
| Eddie Pepperell | $7,300 | $8,600 | $13,900 | 1.078 | 0 | 57.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 164 |
| Andrea Pavan | $6,600 | NA | $11,300 | -0.019 | 0 | 47.079 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 |
| Matt Wallace | $6,700 | $7,400 | $12,800 | 0.638 | 0 | 38.568 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 212 |
| Ashun Wu | $6,800 | $7,300 | $11,500 | 0.572 | 0.628 | 32.887 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 223 |
| Julian Suri | $7,000 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.312 | 0 | 32.359 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 180 |
| Erik van Rooyen | $6,400 | $7,400 | $11,300 | 1.418 | 0 | 22.451 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 |
| Ryan Fox | $7,100 | $7,600 | $12,100 | 1.442 | 0.291 | 22.29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 |
| Alexander Bjork | $6,500 | $7,600 | $12,000 | -0.126 | 0 | 19.058 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 316 |
| Adrian Otaegui | $6,300 | $7,100 | $10,700 | 0.413 | 0 | 18.466 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 270 |
| Jorge Campillo | $6,400 | $7,300 | $11,000 | -0.171 | 0 | 6.871 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 343 |
| Oliver Bekker | $6,200 | $7,000 | $10,100 | -0.779 | 0 | 1.518 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 359 |
| Gaganjeet Bhullar | $6,600 | $7,200 | $10,400 | 0.249 | -0.857 | 1.374 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 307 |
| Shubhankar Sharma | $6,700 | $8,000 | $11,700 | 0.738 | 0 | 0.761 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 292 |
| Yuki Inamori | $6,100 | $7,100 | $10,300 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 331 |
| Sanghyun Park | NA | NA | NA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 331 |
| Bowen Xiao | $6,000 | NA | $10,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 331 |
| Yechun Yuan | $6,000 | NA | $10,100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 331 |
| Yan Wei Liu | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,100 | -1.025 | -1.094 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 382 |
| JC Ritchie | $6,300 | NA | $10,200 | 0 | 0 | -1.365 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 345 |
| John Catlin | $6,200 | $7,200 | $10,400 | 0.909 | 0 | -1.462 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 302 |
| Adam Bland | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,100 | 0.667 | -1.749 | -2.761 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 319 |
| Justin Harding | $6,500 | $7,400 | $10,500 | -0.001 | 0 | -9.462 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 373 |
| Scott Vincent | $6,400 | $7,000 | $10,800 | -0.811 | 0 | -10.307 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 404 |
| Sihwan Kim | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,300 | -0.931 | 0 | -12.462 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 409 |
| Brett Rumford | $6,200 | $7,000 | $10,200 | -0.423 | -1.182 | -20.663 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 398 |
| Jason Norris | $6,100 | NA | $10,000 | 0 | 0 | -36.53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 367 |
| Alexander Levy | $6,500 | $7,500 | $11,700 | 0.11 | 0.617 | 16.868 | -0.035 | -0.032 | 0 | 0 | -0.017 | 314 |
| Byeong Hun An | $8,300 | $9,300 | $14,100 | 1.554 | 0.152 | 24.805 | 0.092 | -0.201 | -0.415 | 0.39 | -0.033 | 193 |
| Adam Scott | $8,400 | $10,100 | $14,700 | 2.15 | 0.948 | 19.267 | -0.213 | 0.097 | -0.091 | 0.071 | -0.034 | 164 |
| Brian Harman | $6,700 | $9,100 | $12,200 | 1.358 | 1.829 | -4.233 | -0.054 | -0.102 | -0.05 | 0.058 | -0.037 | 311 |
| Adam Hadwin | $6,900 | $9,000 | $12,400 | 1.426 | -0.325 | 31.025 | -0.18 | 0.091 | -0.011 | -0.141 | -0.06 | 194 |
| Alex Noren | $9,000 | $10,400 | $15,200 | 1.785 | 1.292 | 25.767 | -0.138 | -0.153 | -0.068 | 0.099 | -0.065 | 169 |
| Chez Reavie | $7,100 | $8,300 | $12,600 | 1.478 | 0.669 | 12.295 | -0.182 | -0.048 | -0.005 | -0.048 | -0.071 | 240 |
| Dustin Johnson | $11,500 | $12,600 | $18,500 | 3.084 | 2.631 | 39.729 | -0.265 | -0.036 | 0.165 | -0.163 | -0.075 | 91 |
| Andy Sullivan | $6,800 | $7,500 | $12,500 | 1.04 | -0.337 | 40.639 | -0.167 | -0.09 | 0 | -0.057 | -0.078 | 219 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $9,100 | $10,000 | $15,600 | 1.961 | 1.35 | 49.285 | -0.186 | 0.058 | 0.435 | -0.684 | -0.094 | 122 |
| Chris Wood | $6,800 | $7,500 | $12,400 | 1.075 | 0.794 | 31.504 | -0.267 | 0.092 | 0 | -0.215 | -0.098 | 234 |
| George Coetzee | $6,400 | $7,100 | $11,100 | 0.782 | 0.36 | 11.188 | -0.047 | -0.268 | 0 | -0.1 | -0.104 | 306 |
| Jason Day | $10,300 | $11,700 | $16,800 | 2.733 | 1.522 | 27.659 | -0.141 | -0.084 | -0.08 | -0.123 | -0.107 | 127 |
| Hao Tong Li | $7,700 | $8,700 | $14,000 | 0.353 | 0.413 | 33.655 | 0.53 | 0.16 | -0.54 | -0.623 | -0.118 | 267 |
| Branden Grace | $7,200 | $9,900 | $12,600 | 1.666 | 1.651 | 0.443 | 0.004 | -0.046 | -0.37 | -0.13 | -0.136 | 248 |
| Russell Knox | $7,300 | $8,700 | $13,400 | 1.425 | 2.752 | 6.409 | 0.032 | -0.134 | -0.163 | -0.362 | -0.156 | 270 |
| Patrick Reed | $8,500 | $10,600 | $15,000 | 1.952 | 0.537 | 16.729 | 0.054 | -0.04 | -0.655 | -0.005 | -0.162 | 200 |
| Billy Horschel | $8,000 | $9,500 | $14,100 | 1.42 | -0.491 | 25.851 | -0.328 | -0.149 | -0.033 | -0.147 | -0.164 | 227 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $7,500 | $9,400 | $13,900 | 1.667 | 1.785 | 24.1 | -0.163 | 0.012 | -0.61 | 0.071 | -0.172 | 197 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $9,500 | $11,600 | $16,400 | 2.432 | 1.373 | 62.74 | -0.24 | -0.124 | 0.043 | -0.373 | -0.173 | 98 |
| Brandt Snedeker | $7,600 | $9,500 | $13,000 | 1.691 | 0.621 | 7.6 | 0.053 | -0.293 | -0.487 | 0.022 | -0.176 | 232 |
| Patton Kizzire | $6,600 | $7,300 | $11,100 | 0.772 | 0 | 13.964 | -0.359 | -0.409 | 0 | 0.023 | -0.186 | 313 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $8,800 | $10,600 | $15,400 | 2.232 | 1.368 | 25.524 | -0.157 | 0.07 | -0.512 | -0.155 | -0.189 | 167 |
| Kevin Na | $7,400 | $8,900 | $13,300 | 1.727 | 0.067 | 19.197 | -0.168 | 0.002 | -0.408 | -0.338 | -0.228 | 208 |