Searching for a Specialist: WGC-Mexico Championship
Welcome back to another specialist search.
Let’s recap last week’s efforts, like always. Two of the three specialists made the cut, but our main specialists (Daniel Berger) did not.
It really goes to show how fine of line a good and bad week can be. Berger was soaring early on until he reached the Bear Trap. He found a greenside bunker and continued to shank his sand shot into the water which forced him to drop way back in the drop zone and resulted in a triple bogey. If you simple take out that hole then he makes the cut. If you go a step further you could probably assume that triple led to some rage-bogeys that put even more pressure on him. I’m not making excuses for a missed cut here, just trying to remind people how much one shot can affect the outcome for these golfers.
For this week’s WGC-Mexico Championship we have no course history, but we do have a few angles we can lean on. Those angles are performance on Bentgrass/Poa greens, Strong Field Events, No-Cut Events, and Less-than-Driver Courses.
Here we go…
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Bentgrass or Poa Greens
The course this week features a mix of bentgrass and poa annua. We just got back from the West Coast where we see plenty of poa annua. The problem this week is that we don’t know how dominant the poa annua is at Club de Golf Chapultepec.
The easy solution is to combine the results from all events with poa annua greens AND events with bentgrass greens. That is what I’ve done this week.
The Top 10 Bentgrass/Poa Specialists are:
Tommy Fleetwood (0.863 sg:bent/poa vs. 0.256 sg:total)
Richard Sterne (-0.259 sg:bent/poa vs. -0.745 sg:total)
Thorbjorn Olesen (0.843 sg:bent/poa vs. 0.385 sg:total)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (1.541 sg:bent/poa vs. 1.085 sg:total)
Emiliano Grillo (1.936 sg:bent/poa vs. 1.528 sg:total)
Jon Rahm (2.465 sg:bent/poa vs. 2.152 sg:total)
J.B. Holmes (1.733 sg:bent/poa vs. 1.461 sg:total)
Martin Kaymer (1.653 sg:bent/poa vs. 1.384 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (2.862 sg:bent/poa vs. 2.615 sg:total)
Henrik Stenson (2.838 sg:bent/poa vs. 2.605 sg:total)
The first thing we notice is quite a few Europeans on this list. When the Euro Tour stays in the continent of Europe, most of the courses are bentgrass, so that makes sense.
Definitely keep that in mind when making picks this week.
Jordan Spieth isn’t on the list above, but he owns the most top 25s on bentgrass/poa since 2014, finding the top 25 in 37 of his 52 events that qualify.
Strong Field Events
WGC events are always strong fields. This week is no exception as 49 of the top 50 in the world are assembling in Mexico City.
Let’s see who plays up to their competition.
The 10 Strong Field Specialists:
Richard Sterne (0.322 sg:strong vs. -0.745 sg:total)
Thorbjorn Olesen (1.142 sg:strong vs. 0.385 sg:total)
Kevin Chappell (1.646 sg:strong vs. 1.219 sg:total)
Jhonattan Vegas (1.084 sg:strong vs. 0.736 sg:total)
Daniel Berger (1.835 sg:strong vs. 1.506 sg:total)
Louis Oosthuizen (1.871 sg:strong vs. 1.599 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (2.296 sg:strong vs. 2.032 sg:total)
Soren Kjeldsen (1.285 sg:strong vs. 1.058 sg:total)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (1.304 sg:strong vs. 1.085 sg:total)
Emiliano Grillo (1.736 sg:strong vs. 1.528 sg:total)
You may notice Richard Sterne showing up on both lists but looking at his baseline performance on the PGA TOUR, it’s not so appealing. The South African feasts in his home country, but the game has yet to truly translate to the PGA TOUR.
Daniel Berger left a sour taste in the mouths of his owners last week but historically he has played quite well when the strength of field increases. That makes him a great GPP option this week.
No-Cut Events
When goflers are guaranteed four rounds, some golfers thrive due to the lack of cut-line pressure.
On the flip side, other golfers are just happy to crack the field and enjoy a nice paycheck regardless of how they perform.
The Top 10 No-Cut Specialists:
Bernd Wiesberger (1.94 sg:no-cut vs. 1.07 sg:total)
Justin Thomas (2.461 sg:no-cut vs. 1.682 sg:total)
Paul Casey (2.445 sg:no-cut vs. 1.911 sg:total)
Kevin Chappell (1.754 sg:no-cut vs. 1.219 sg:total)
Daniel Berger (2.034 sg:no-cut vs. 1.506 sg:total)
Scott Piercy (1.637 sg:no-cut vs. 1.111 sg:total)
Roberto Castro (1.011 sg:no-cut vs. 0.569 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (3.04 sg:no-cut vs. 2.615 sg:total)
Brendan Steele (1.872 sg:no-cut vs. 1.487 sg:total)
Ryan Moore (1.913 sg:no-cut vs. 1.542 sg:total)
Justin Thomas is a really interesting narrative case here. He’s mentioned recently that his friends on TOUR have given him a hard time always for winning outside the United States (contiguous). He’s also won three of his four trophies on weeks when there was no cut. It could just be a coincidence, or it could be a mental block for Thomas. Something to consider this week.
Less-than-Driver Courses
We don’t have any historical data that confirms this is a less-than-driver course but we have plenty of clues that suggest that is how it will play out.
First, it’s 7,330 yard course played at extreme altitude. When you adjust from elevation, this course is closer to 6,500 yards. That is SHORT!
Second, Spieth said something along the lines of this after today’s practice round, “You don’t have to hit a driver all round and can still reach all 18 greens.” Given how tree-lined this course is, I think a lot of golfers will end up clubbing down quite frequently.
Third, checking out instragram, twitter, and periscope feeds from the course, I’ve already seen around 10 pictures or videos of golfers using irons off the tee but only seen one or two using driver.
The 10 Less-than-Driver Specialists:
Kevin Na (2.368 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.712 sg:total)
Bill Haas (2.293 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.711 sg:total)
Jim Furyk (2.706 sg:less-than-driver vs. 2.204 sg:total)
Kevin Chappell (1.608 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.219 sg:total)
Jhonattan Vegas (1.117 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.736 sg:total)
Jason Dufner (1.643 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.351 sg:total)
Martin Kaymer (1.657 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.384 sg:total)
Kevin Kisner (1.498 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.227 sg:total)
Sean O’Hair (1.044 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.818 sg:total)
Rickie Fowler (2.257 sg:less-than-driver vs. 2.032 sg:total)
Chappell shows up for the third time this week! If he wasn’t in such poor form, he’d make for a great play this week.
When Bill Haas and Kevin Na don’t have to hit a lot of drivers, they suddenly become very valuable. If you look at their 2.3-ish strokes gained on less-than-driver courses, that is similar to the baseline performances of golfers like Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, etc. Do not let them slip off your radar unless you eliminate them for another angle.
Unsurprisingly, Brooks Koepka is more than half-a-shot worse than his baseline when playing at a restrictive course. If you were thinking of taking a chance on him despite his poor form, it might be worth it to wait for a better course fit.
The Specialists
Branden Grace
Lee Westwood
Sergio Garcia
Matt Kuchar
Our specialist this week is Branden Grace!
Well, this is scary. Our specialist is arriving fresh off a WD last week. Other than these raw stats we went over, there are a few other angles also working in his favor.
First, he finished second in Net Scoring at the Seminole Pro-Member outing this Monday. Of course, we don’t know if he played great or his member (Bobby Long) carried the team. Still, it’s encouraging that his cited “injury” is not all that serious.
Second, this week features kikuyu on the fairways and rough. That is the normal grass type for courses back home in South Africa.
The other three specialists don’t show any red flags, so I think it’s fire away, and hope that other gamers avoid Grace coming off his WD at the Honda Classic.
The Anti-Specialists
Looking for the opposite of our specialists, these golfers have negative numbers in all five angles!
Pat Perez
Phil Mickelson
Gary Woodland
Oh man, Gary Woodland is going to be a really popular pick this week due to his current form and also his course history in Reno (elevation). I think he’s playing good enough that I won’t recommend a full fade, but I will recommend you temper your expectations.
Same goes for Phil Mickelson (lower exposure). As for Pat Perez, I am fine with a full fade if you want to.
Best of luck everyone!
Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 25 rounds to qualify for each angle.
The SG:Total column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014),
Form looks at the performance over the last 10 weeks (PGA & Euro). Given the holiday break, form is still rounding back into shape.
| Golfer | DK | SG:Total | Form | Bent/Poa | Strong Field | No Cut | LT Driver | Specialist Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Sterne | $7,200 | -0.745 | 0.792 | 0.487 | 1.068 | 0 | 0 | 0.389 |
| Kevin Chappell | $7,300 | 1.219 | -0.49 | -0.071 | 0.427 | 0.534 | 0.389 | 0.32 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | $6,900 | 0.385 | 1.469 | 0.458 | 0.757 | 0 | 0 | 0.304 |
| Daniel Berger | $8,000 | 1.506 | 1.374 | 0.025 | 0.329 | 0.528 | -0.009 | 0.218 |
| Dustin Johnson | $12,500 | 2.615 | 3.255 | 0.247 | 0.192 | 0.425 | 0 | 0.216 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $7,400 | 0.256 | 1.791 | 0.607 | 0.207 | 0 | 0 | 0.204 |
| Rickie Fowler | $9,900 | 2.032 | 2.729 | -0.032 | 0.264 | 0.351 | 0.226 | 0.202 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | $7,100 | 1.07 | 2.39 | -0.111 | -0.055 | 0.87 | 0 | 0.176 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | $7,300 | 1.085 | 0.959 | 0.456 | 0.22 | 0 | 0 | 0.169 |
| Paul Casey | $7,800 | 1.911 | 1.495 | 0.095 | 0.092 | 0.534 | -0.073 | 0.162 |
| Jim Furyk | $7,300 | 2.204 | 1.222 | 0.1 | 0.052 | -0.073 | 0.503 | 0.145 |
| Branden Grace | $6,900 | 1.377 | 0.885 | 0.204 | 0.126 | 0.086 | 0.1 | 0.129 |
| Soren Kjeldsen | $7,200 | 1.058 | -0.087 | 0.198 | 0.228 | 0.083 | 0 | 0.127 |
| Martin Kaymer | $7,500 | 1.384 | 2.354 | 0.269 | 0.15 | -0.24 | 0.273 | 0.113 |
| Lee Westwood | $6,800 | 1.489 | 2.113 | 0.054 | 0.117 | 0.067 | 0.154 | 0.098 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $7,300 | 1.528 | 0.839 | 0.408 | 0.208 | 0.199 | -0.481 | 0.083 |
| Jon Rahm | $9,000 | 2.152 | 2.905 | 0.313 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.078 |
| Sean O’Hair | $7,400 | 0.818 | 2.082 | -0.102 | 0.182 | 0 | 0.226 | 0.077 |
| Bubba Watson | $7,000 | 2.15 | -0.294 | 0.024 | 0.006 | 0.274 | 0 | 0.076 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $6,600 | 0.736 | 1.673 | 0.031 | 0.348 | -0.457 | 0.381 | 0.076 |
| Henrik Stenson | $10,300 | 2.605 | 3.144 | 0.232 | 0.007 | -0.136 | 0.168 | 0.068 |
| Danny Willett | $6,700 | 1.544 | 1.247 | -0.093 | 0.174 | 0.188 | 0 | 0.067 |
| Bill Haas | $7,000 | 1.711 | 2.573 | -0.046 | -0.055 | -0.231 | 0.582 | 0.063 |
| William McGirt | $6,700 | 1.076 | 1.179 | 0.052 | -0.008 | 0.109 | 0.077 | 0.057 |
| Kevin Na | $7,100 | 1.712 | 1.982 | -0.16 | -0.102 | -0.171 | 0.656 | 0.056 |
| Roberto Castro | $7,100 | 0.569 | 0.992 | -0.098 | 0.144 | 0.442 | -0.272 | 0.054 |
| Justin Thomas | $8,700 | 1.682 | 2.988 | -0.2 | -0.176 | 0.779 | -0.197 | 0.051 |
| Sergio Garcia | $8,500 | 2.382 | 2.582 | 0.013 | 0.108 | 0.063 | 0.008 | 0.048 |
| Joost Luiten | $6,800 | 0.886 | 1.819 | -0.12 | 0.087 | 0.22 | 0 | 0.047 |
| Russell Knox | $6,900 | 1.539 | 0.878 | -0.08 | 0.203 | 0.115 | -0.054 | 0.046 |
| Matt Kuchar | $7,300 | 2.064 | 1.944 | 0.003 | 0.105 | 0.039 | 0.025 | 0.043 |
| Adam Scott | $9,200 | 2.407 | 2.762 | 0.032 | 0.203 | 0.166 | -0.23 | 0.043 |
| Scott Piercy | $6,700 | 1.111 | 0.58 | -0.147 | -0.258 | 0.526 | 0.03 | 0.038 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $7,000 | 1.636 | -0.727 | 0.1 | 0.024 | 0.255 | -0.264 | 0.029 |
| J.B. Holmes | $6,800 | 1.461 | 1.947 | 0.273 | 0.088 | -0.073 | -0.203 | 0.021 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $7,200 | 1.599 | 2.499 | -0.05 | 0.273 | 0 | -0.139 | 0.021 |
| Ross Fisher | $7,100 | 1.51 | 0.734 | 0 | 0.015 | 0 | 0 | 0.004 |
| Brendan Steele | $7,900 | 1.487 | 2.429 | -0.254 | -0.084 | 0.385 | -0.034 | 0.003 |
| Ryan Moore | $7,500 | 1.542 | 1.254 | -0.186 | -0.37 | 0.371 | 0.195 | 0.003 |
| Thomas Pieters | $6,800 | 1.457 | 1.969 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fabrizio Zanotti | $6,900 | 0.948 | 1.511 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Noren | $7,200 | 0.835 | 2.092 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $6,600 | 0.783 | 0.596 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| K.T. Kim | $6,700 | 0.723 | 1.402 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hideto Tanihara | $6,900 | 0.685 | 1.755 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Brazel | $6,600 | 0 | 1.386 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Griffin | $6,500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hendry | $6,800 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yuta Ikeda | $7,200 | -0.152 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pablo Larrazabal | $6,500 | -0.241 | 1.724 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeunghun Wang | $7,000 | -0.737 | 2.112 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Lipsky | $7,100 | -1.021 | 1.902 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roberto Diaz | $6,500 | -1.802 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stone | $7,400 | -1.866 | 1.184 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Johnson | $7,900 | 1.703 | 2.151 | 0.113 | 0.121 | -0.042 | -0.203 | -0.003 |
| Andy Sullivan | $6,500 | 1.104 | 0.562 | -0.083 | 0.065 | 0 | 0 | -0.004 |
| Francesco Molinari | $8,200 | 1.665 | 2.002 | -0.127 | 0.163 | 0.022 | -0.093 | -0.009 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $8,300 | 1.851 | 2.915 | -0.067 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.017 |
| Scott Hend | $6,600 | 0.577 | 1.075 | 0 | -0.166 | 0.099 | 0 | -0.017 |
| Rory Mcilroy | $10,900 | 3.057 | 3.095 | 0.05 | -0.007 | 0.192 | -0.338 | -0.026 |
| Rafa Cabrera Bello | $7,400 | 1.555 | 2.043 | -0.043 | -0.099 | 0 | 0 | -0.036 |
| Kevin Kisner | $7,600 | 1.227 | 2.261 | -0.043 | -0.149 | -0.237 | 0.271 | -0.04 |
| Chris Wood | $6,600 | 1.215 | 1.844 | -0.11 | -0.054 | 0 | 0 | -0.041 |
| Jason Dufner | $8,100 | 1.351 | 1.482 | -0.156 | -0.125 | -0.265 | 0.292 | -0.063 |
| Jimmy Walker | $7,000 | 1.607 | 1.622 | -0.02 | -0.196 | -0.212 | 0.159 | -0.067 |
| Patrick Reed | $7,700 | 1.644 | 1.493 | 0.056 | -0.099 | -0.168 | -0.077 | -0.072 |
| Jordan Spieth | $11,500 | 2.59 | 3.364 | 0.024 | -0.208 | -0.204 | 0.063 | -0.081 |
| Justin Rose | $9,600 | 2.414 | 3.022 | 0.019 | 0 | -0.159 | -0.191 | -0.083 |
| Byeong Hun An | $7,500 | 1.091 | 1.98 | -0.291 | -0.187 | 0 | 0 | -0.12 |
| Brandt Snedeker | $7,800 | 1.569 | 1.979 | 0.132 | -0.019 | -0.101 | -0.516 | -0.126 |
| Marcus Fraser | $6,500 | 0.2 | 1.011 | 0 | -0.157 | -0.359 | 0 | -0.129 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $10,700 | 2.201 | 2.272 | -0.073 | -0.06 | 0.009 | -0.453 | -0.145 |
| Gary Woodland | $8,400 | 1.571 | 2.699 | -0.158 | -0.074 | -0.172 | -0.221 | -0.156 |
| Brooks Koepka | $7,700 | 1.807 | -0.221 | 0.018 | -0.108 | 0.022 | -0.625 | -0.173 |
| Phil Mickelson | $7,600 | 1.936 | 1.837 | -0.055 | -0.075 | -0.224 | -0.401 | -0.189 |
| Pat Perez | $7,400 | 1.034 | 1.89 | -0.264 | -0.349 | -0.073 | -0.206 | -0.223 |
| Si Woo Kim | $6,700 | 0.884 | -2.01 | -0.255 | -0.692 | 0 | -0.323 | -0.317 |