Searching for a Specialist: WGC-Mexico Championship

Heading to Club de Golf Chapultepec for a third straight year, a limited field of 72 will deal with altitude at this week’s WGC.

There aren’t enough events played at high altitude to treat it as a specialist angle, but there are plenty of other angles we can target as we finalize our daily fantasy golf lineups.

But first, let’s review last week where we had a boatload of qualified specialists. Overall they went 5-for-8 with disappointing MCs from Oosthy, Hoffman, and Laird. That will dip the overall cuts-made percentage from our specialists this season. On the flip side, Justin Thomas and Adam Scott were the men to beat for most of the week. Both of them graded out as event specialists. Tony Finau also picked up a top 15. Overall, it was a week of mixed results. Plenty of room for improvement though as we head south of the border.

This week we look at Performance on Poa Annua, Less-than-Driver Courses, Short Courses, Strong Field Events, and No-Cut Events. There are two identical angles from last week (poa and strong field) but also two exact opposite angles (LT Driver, Short Course).

Here we go…

Performance on Poa Annua

We’ve left California, but we haven’t left poa annua just yet.

These greens at Chapultepec are rather undulated and have been rather bumpy during the first two editions.

The 10 Poa Annua Specialists:

Bubba Watson (2.61 sg:poa vs. 1.776 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.919 sg:poa vs. 1.304 sg:total)
Phil Mickelson (2.644 sg:poa vs. 2.163 sg:total)
Tony Finau (2.527 sg:poa vs. 2.078 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (3.453 sg:poa vs. 3.028 sg:total)
Tommy Fleetwood (2.809 sg:poa vs. 2.428 sg:total)
Kevin Na (2.04 sg:poa vs. 1.666 sg:total)
Paul Casey (2.624 sg:poa vs. 2.366 sg:total)
Charles Howell III (1.913 sg:poa vs. 1.664 sg:total)
Justin Thomas (2.733 sg:poa vs. 2.503 sg:total)

Quantity: The golfers that have the most strokes gained on Poa Annua since 2014 are Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Tony Finau, Paul Casey, and Jordan Spieth.

When you see the overperformance on poa list it doesn’t exactly scream great putters. Given the bumpy nature of poa annua, we see ball-striking a little more important than actual putting.

Less-than-Driver Courses

When you adjust for altitude this becomes the shortest course played on the PGA TOUR.

That means you can put away your driver for most of the round. There are times where you can let it rip, but overall, you want to keep it steady here, given the tree-lined nature of the fairways.

The Top 10 LT Driver Specialists:

Kiradech Aphibarnrat (1.667 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.175 sg:total)
Alex Noren (2.125 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.696 sg:total)
Tiger Woods (2.639 sg:less-than-driver vs. 2.245 sg:total)
Emiliano Grillo (2.058 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.715 sg:total)
Joost Luiten (1.481 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.142 sg:total)
Byeong Hun An (1.834 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.564 sg:total)
Kevin Na (1.934 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.666 sg:total)
Tommy Fleetwood (2.688 sg:less-than-driver vs. 2.428 sg:total)
Branden Grace (1.876 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.66 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.538 sg:less-than-driver vs. 1.327 sg:total)

Quantity: Golfers with the most weighted strokes gained on LT Driver courses since 2014 are Jordan Spieth, Charles Howell III, Webb Simpson, Kevin Na, and Kevin Kisner.

Looking at that quantity list, you see a definite “style” of play. These are the names that pop up on all the tight courses against weaker fields. The type of events where most of the big names skip them.

Barnrat has looked bad in 2019, but he finally gets a less-than-driver layout that should suit him a little better. I like his chances to rebound this week.

Short Courses

I just talked about how short this course becomes when you account for playing at 7,800 feet above sea level.

It’s 7,345 yards on the scorecard but closer to 6,700 yards when you account for that 10-to-15% boost from the elevation.

The Top 10 Short Course Specialists:

Phil Mickelson (2.987 sg:short vs. 2.163 sg:total)
Patton Kizzire (1.409 sg:short vs. 0.809 sg:total)
Sergio Garcia (2.673 sg:short vs. 2.089 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.856 sg:short vs. 1.304 sg:total)
Rafa Cabrera Bello (2.416 sg:short vs. 1.953 sg:total)
Hideki Matsuyama (2.808 sg:short vs. 2.415 sg:total)
Kevin Kisner (1.806 sg:short vs. 1.487 sg:total)
Tyrrell Hatton (2.24 sg:short vs. 1.948 sg:total)
Russell Knox (1.707 sg:short vs. 1.449 sg:total)
Louis Oosthuizen (2.122 sg:short vs. 1.874 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on Short Courses since 2014 are Paul Casey, Justin Thomas, Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, and Chez Reavie.

At first glance of the Top 10 list above it’s easy to see that approach rules supreme on these shorter courses. Most of the list is populated with golfers that can go on those runs where they stuff dart after dart for loads of scoring chances from inside 15 feet. That’s important this week on bumpy greens where just landing anywhere on the green isn’t really good enough.

Strong Field Events

After years of following these golfers it’s easy to see that some events matter more. These WGC events mean a lot of certain players (usually younger stars that are trying to prove they can hang) while others just beat up on weaker fields then crumble under the bright lights.

The Top 10 Strong Field Specialists:

Richard Sterne (0.283 sg:strong vs. -0.461 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (2.338 sg:strong vs. 1.85 sg:total)
Bryson DeChambeau (2.231 sg:strong vs. 1.884 sg:total)
Thorbjorn Olesen (1.661 sg:strong vs. 1.323 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.568 sg:strong vs. 1.327 sg:total)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (1.405 sg:strong vs. 1.175 sg:total)
Tony Finau (2.306 sg:strong vs. 2.078 sg:total)
Lee Westwood (1.475 sg:strong vs. 1.277 sg:total)
Danny Willett (0.795 sg:strong vs. 0.597 sg:total)
Hao Tong Li (0.728 sg:strong vs. 0.54 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained in Strong Fields since 2014 are Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas, and Hideki Matsuyama.

We saw Willett rise to the occasion at the Masters so it’s no surprise to see him make the list. Thor was a killer at the Ryder Cup so it makes sense that he likes the spotlight. Xander is probably the most glaring example right now. Nearly all of his wins and near-wins have come against elite fields (okay, The Greenbrier win would be an exception). Still, it’s safe to say that Schauffele likes his role as the underdog trying to take down goliath.

No-Cut Events

If you give a golfer four guaranteed rounds then it usually allows the cream to rise by week’s end.

What it also does is alleviate some of the pressure of the cut line. That means when a talented golfer struggles in round one they can still come out firing the next two days in hopes of posting an extremely-low round. We saw that here last year when JT opened 72-70 before firing the course record of 62 in Round 3.

The Top 10 No-Cut Specialists:

Thorbjorn Olesen (2.221 sg:no-cut vs. 1.323 sg:total)
Patton Kizzire (1.357 sg:no-cut vs. 0.809 sg:total)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (1.723 sg:no-cut vs. 1.175 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (2.302 sg:no-cut vs. 1.85 sg:total)
Keegan Bradley (2.063 sg:no-cut vs. 1.614 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.706 sg:no-cut vs. 1.304 sg:total)
Justin Thomas (2.903 sg:no-cut vs. 2.503 sg:total)
Tyrrell Hatton (2.348 sg:no-cut vs. 1.948 sg:total)
Tony Finau (2.475 sg:no-cut vs. 2.078 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.713 sg:no-cut vs. 1.327 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained in No-Cut Events since 2014 are Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Paul Casey, Hideki Matsuyama, and Rickie Fowler.

We see names like Thor and Barnrat crack the list above. A part of that could be that most of their non No-Cut starts come on courses where their course experience is severly lacking. Otherwise, it’s a lot of cream rising to the top.

The Specialists

Sergio Garcia

It was a long list of specialists last week but just one this week in Mexico.

It’s the Spaniard who made headlines recently in Saudi Arabia. He made an apology last week and should be good for a rebound now.

What about his history here. He’s made the trip both times and finished T12 and T7 in those starts.

What did he say about the layout? “Well, it’s the kind of golf courses I like. You know, Valderrama is my favorite golf course, small greens. Sawgrass, one of my favorite golf courses, small greens. So I do like these kind of courses better, and when it gets a bit firmer like it’s getting and a bit more challenging, I do feel — even though it’s not easy, I do feel a bit more comfortable.” It’s great when course-fit angles also line up with golfers talking a big game about the course.

Super Simple Specialist Ratings

The goal of this article is to isolate course fit, to see who should outperform their baseline.

However, anyone with common sense knows that baseline talent (and current form) can’t be ignored when handicapping golf.

Combining Long-Term Skill (L52) with Current Form and Specialist Rating, we get a Top 20 ranking that looks like this:

Dustin Johnson
Bryson DeChambeau
Justin Thomas
Jon Rahm
Tommy Fleetwood
Tony Finau
Phil Mickelson
Tiger Woods
Hideki Matsuyama
Xander Schauffele
Paul Casey
Rory Mcilroy
Marc Leishman
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Patrick Reed
Charles Howell III
Sergio Garcia
Matt Kuchar
Patrick Cantlay
Cameron Smith

Our specialist Sergio doesn’t crack the top 10 on this list, but a bit part of that is getting docked for his early and mid-season 2018 stats which weigh down his L52 number. He was in a huge slump, but he really turned it just before the Ryder Cup and he hasn’t looked back.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 30 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:TOTAL column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014). It is time-weighted so more recent results count for more than finishes from years ago.

HISTORY column is a weighted performance metric based on course history. I’ve made tiny adjustments for sample sizes, but be sure to check on number of course rounds before blindly following this number.

FORM looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 6 weeks (PGA TOUR and European Tour).

SIMPLE RATING looks at Long-Term Skill (L52), FORM, and SPECIALIST RATING to create a simple rating that includes course fit but doesn’t overweight it.

L52 FORM looks at performance over the last 52 weeks across the PGA TOUR, Web.com Tour, and European Tour.

Golfer DK FD FDRFT SG: Total History Form Poa LT Driver Strong Field Short No Cut Specialist Rating Simple Rating L52 Form
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $6,700 $8,200 $12,100 1.175 2.57 2.156 0 0.492 0.23 0 0.548 0.254 301 1.174
Sergio Garcia $8,000 $10,000 $14,800 2.089 2.644 24.142 0.162 0.194 0.013 0.585 0.302 0.251 149 1.944
Cameron Smith $7,400 $9,700 $13,900 1.304 0 43.02 0.615 -0.352 -0.11 0.552 0.401 0.221 153 1.564
Rafa Cabrera Bello $7,800 $9,900 $14,300 1.953 2.361 31.523 0.07 0.094 0 0.463 0.259 0.177 132 1.904
Patton Kizzire $6,700 $8,300 $11,900 0.809 1.903 7.977 0.061 -0.002 -0.394 0.601 0.548 0.163 316 0.599
Phil Mickelson $9,300 $11,000 $15,600 2.163 3.339 52.003 0.481 -0.003 -0.16 0.825 -0.358 0.157 85 1.986
Tyrrell Hatton $7,300 $9,200 $13,900 1.948 3.144 19.571 0 0.026 0.053 0.292 0.399 0.154 186 1.852
Tommy Fleetwood $8,200 $10,300 $14,900 2.428 2.73 34.034 0.381 0.26 -0.064 0 0.167 0.149 75 2.412
Bubba Watson $8,400 $10,000 $15,200 1.776 1.817 26.497 0.833 -0.046 0.172 -0.375 0.079 0.133 173 1.704
Joost Luiten $7,300 $7,800 $13,000 1.142 1.1 28.657 0 0.339 0.069 0 0.206 0.123 167 1.739
Kyle Stanley $6,400 $7,900 $11,400 1.327 1.237 -5.068 -0.238 0.21 0.241 -0.073 0.386 0.105 280 1.56
Dustin Johnson $11,500 $11,900 $17,500 3.028 3.252 50.656 0.424 0.015 -0.006 -0.032 0.125 0.105 29 3.22
Justin Thomas $11,800 $12,000 $18,000 2.503 3.426 50.23 0.23 -0.159 0.162 -0.123 0.4 0.102 35 3.193
Alex Noren $7,100 $9,600 $13,400 1.696 1.252 3.586 0 0.429 -0.07 0 0.109 0.094 216 1.961
Tony Finau $8,900 $10,700 $15,400 2.078 1.07 33.803 0.449 -0.391 0.229 -0.281 0.397 0.081 78 2.608
Keegan Bradley $7,000 $8,900 $12,700 1.614 0 24.02 0.042 0.019 -0.076 -0.034 0.449 0.08 186 1.745
Lee Westwood $7,100 $8,700 $13,400 1.277 1.135 19.219 0 -0.101 0.198 0 0.253 0.07 237 1.551
Matthew Fitzpatrick $7,600 $9,100 $13,400 1.247 1.47 9.945 0 -0.004 0.165 0.003 0.178 0.069 267 1.487
Paul Casey $8,600 $10,600 $15,400 2.366 2.23 32.536 0.258 -0.162 0.016 0.081 0.149 0.068 108 2.193
Tiger Woods $9,500 $11,200 $15,900 2.245 0 26.309 0 0.394 -0.061 0 0 0.067 90 2.899
Kevin Na $6,900 $8,600 $12,000 1.666 0.366 13.475 0.374 0.268 -0.01 0.016 -0.444 0.041 232 1.62
Ryan Fox $6,600 $9,000 $11,900 1.432 0 21.652 0 0 0.151 0 0 0.03 260 1.36
Bryson DeChambeau $10,000 $11,500 $16,500 1.884 0 62.945 -0.019 0.022 0.347 -0.203 0 0.029 34 2.956
Xander Schauffele $9,100 $11,100 $15,800 1.85 1.57 38.264 0.168 -0.479 0.488 -0.488 0.452 0.028 106 2.185
Kevin Kisner $7,200 $9,100 $12,700 1.487 1.752 26.194 -0.186 0.202 -0.051 0.32 -0.184 0.02 256 1.228
Aaron Wise $6,400 $8,500 $11,800 1.462 0 3.898 0 0.147 -0.079 -0.046 0 0.004 262 1.658
Tom Lewis $7,000 NA $12,600 0.478 0 32.167 0 0 0 0 0 0 202 1.498
Aaron Rai $6,500 $7,000 $11,800 -1.279 0 21.516 0 0 0 0 0 0 297 0.849
Matt Wallace $7,300 $8,800 $13,500 0.43 0 21.219 0 0 0 0 0 0 264 1.421
Alexander Bjork $6,100 $7,600 $11,700 0.152 0 14.521 0 0 0 0 0 0 284 1.348
Lucas Bjerregaard $6,500 $8,000 $11,900 -0.651 0 10.521 0 0 0 0 0 0 281 1.437
Shugo Imahira $6,100 $7,300 $11,000 0.237 0 6.756 0 0 0 0 0 0 307 1.305
Shaun Norris $6,200 $7,100 $10,300 0.125 0 6.17 0 0 0 0 0 0 353 0.084
Adrian Otaegui $6,300 NA $11,700 0.046 0 5.179 0 0 0 0 0 0 322 1.043
Eddie Pepperell $6,900 $8,000 $11,800 1.078 0 4.719 0 0 0 0 0 0 306 1.362
Jake McLeod $6,300 $7,000 $10,400 0 0 1.288 0 0 0 0 0 0 335 1.002
Sanghyun Park $6,300 $7,000 $10,200 0.033 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 372 -0.074
Shubhankar Sharma $6,800 $8,100 $11,800 0.479 2.07 -1.753 0 0 0 0 0 0 361 0.648
Matthew Millar $6,000 $7,000 $10,300 -0.806 0 -2.358 0 0 0 0 0 0 372 0.117
Erik van Rooyen $6,400 $7,200 $10,600 1.176 0 -9.791 0 0 0 0 0 0 358 0.894
Hao Tong Li $7,400 $8,900 $14,100 0.54 -1.93 30.194 0 0 0.188 0 -0.215 -0.005 236 1.443
Emiliano Grillo $6,900 $9,400 $12,900 1.715 0.366 24 0.116 0.343 0.001 0.021 -0.523 -0.008 175 2.134
Gary Woodland $7,900 $10,100 $15,100 1.837 0.513 25.432 0.023 -0.296 0.001 0.118 0.105 -0.01 173 2.06
Hideki Matsuyama $9,000 $10,900 $15,500 2.415 1.289 51.02 -0.006 -0.346 -0.029 0.392 -0.063 -0.01 98 2.235
Shane Lowry $7,200 $9,300 $13,600 1.481 0 31.943 0.02 -0.02 -0.15 0.052 0 -0.02 198 1.665
Jordan Spieth $8,800 $10,500 $15,400 2.583 2.209 21.325 -0.031 0.009 -0.035 0.052 -0.135 -0.028 216 1.862
Richard Sterne $6,700 $7,400 $11,700 -0.461 -1.481 25.657 0 -0.925 0.743 0 0 -0.036 295 0.898
Rory Mcilroy $11,100 $11,600 $17,400 2.828 2.366 34.309 -0.214 -0.098 0.112 -0.089 0.081 -0.042 110 2.606
Louis Oosthuizen $7,500 $9,200 $13,800 1.874 0.774 13.065 0.032 -0.105 0.049 0.248 -0.448 -0.045 205 2.153
Marc Leishman $8,700 $10,800 $15,400 2.051 0.57 42.565 -0.254 -0.06 -0.104 0.115 0.068 -0.047 115 2.286
George Coetzee $6,000 $7,000 $10,500 0.677 0 6.747 0 0 -0.248 0 0 -0.05 360 0.729
Charles Howell III $7,800 $9,700 $14,300 1.664 0 52.554 0.25 -0.051 -0.306 0.003 -0.177 -0.056 147 1.903
Billy Horschel $7,700 $9,500 $13,600 1.489 0 23.745 0.031 0.06 -0.113 -0.207 -0.093 -0.065 197 1.981
David Lipsky $6,500 $7,700 $11,000 0.141 0.013 10.657 0 0 -0.196 0 -0.139 -0.067 358 0.407
Russell Knox $6,800 $9,000 $12,900 1.449 -1.019 48.983 -0.094 0.084 -0.17 0.258 -0.448 -0.074 217 1.487
Henrik Stenson $7,200 $9,600 $13,800 2.618 0 1.236 0 0.028 0.012 -0.31 -0.143 -0.083 243 2.182
Thorbjorn Olesen $7,000 $8,300 $12,700 1.323 -0.25 10.247 0 -1.656 0.338 0 0.898 -0.084 283 1.619
Ian Poulter $7,900 $9,500 $14,200 1.56 0 47.423 -0.787 0.033 0.035 0.15 0.148 -0.084 174 1.814
Jon Rahm $10,700 $11,700 $16,800 2.569 2.426 61.254 0.003 -0.463 -0.087 0.029 0.082 -0.087 78 2.641
Chez Reavie $7,100 $9,400 $12,400 1.554 -0.097 46.261 -0.046 -0.249 -0.116 0.044 -0.114 -0.096 238 1.42
Satoshi Kodaira $6,200 NA $11,800 -0.183 -0.263 -14.346 0 -0.447 -0.071 0 0 -0.104 421 -0.169
Patrick Cantlay $8,500 $10,400 $15,200 2.325 0.737 26.618 -0.088 0.105 0.01 -0.161 -0.393 -0.105 152 2.376
Branden Grace $6,800 $9,300 $12,900 1.66 1.035 30.622 -0.193 0.216 -0.072 -0.162 -0.405 -0.123 247 1.488
Webb Simpson $8,300 $9,800 $15,100 2.049 0.57 12.455 -0.458 -0.092 -0.164 -0.079 0.171 -0.125 183 2.638
Danny Willett $6,600 $8,100 $12,200 0.597 -0.865 14.531 0 -0.862 0.198 0 -0.074 -0.147 338 0.944
Brooks Koepka $9,800 $11,300 $16,000 2.284 0.519 10.643 -0.091 -0.126 0.013 -0.436 -0.305 -0.189 186 2.641
Patrick Reed $8,000 $9,900 $14,400 1.976 0.317 36.685 0.118 -0.105 -0.049 -0.28 -0.648 -0.193 145 2.194
Francesco Molinari $8,100 $10,100 $14,300 1.97 1.709 0 -0.692 0.166 -0.049 -0.039 -0.366 -0.196 245 2.205
Abraham Ancer $6,600 $8,400 $12,400 1.066 -0.097 28.873 -0.487 -0.214 -0.296 -0.295 0 -0.258 242 1.567
Matt Kuchar $7,700 $9,800 $14,200 2.201 0.296 59.724 -0.584 -0.271 0.105 -0.471 -0.171 -0.279 151 1.976
Rickie Fowler $10,300 $11,400 $16,400 2.547 1.361 21.245 -1.246 -0.118 0.098 -0.147 -0.023 -0.287 177 2.614
Byeong Hun An $7,600 NA $13,500 1.564 0.519 23.003 -0.953 0.27 -0.178 -0.322 -0.468 -0.33 245 1.796

About the Author

futureoffantasy
Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.