Searching for a Specialist: Zurich Classic
Welcome back for this week’s specialist search.
We tacked on another specialist victory with Charley Hoffman last week! Looking at the past five specialists, they’ve rattled off finishes of WIN-T14-T2-T13-WIN. Not too shabby.
The search this week will keep it simple. We will look at Less-than-Driver Courses followed by Courses with Easy-to-Hit Greens and close it out with performance on Bermuda Greens.
Here we go…
Less-than-Driver Courses
The course this week is TPC Louisiana and it reaches out past 7,400 yards. Not exactly short but many of the par 4s take driver out of hand due to the course layout, putting great wedge players on an even playing field with the bombers.
Pete Dye drew it up perfectly when he designed this course because it’s a lengthy track but the past winner’s include Jerry Kelly, Jason Bohn, and Jason Dufner.
The Top 10 Less-than-Driver Specialists are:
Matt Every (0.391 sg:less-than-driver vs. -0.56 sg:total)
Tyler Aldridge (0.75 sg:less-than-driver vs. -0.16 sg:total)
Stuart Appleby (0.778 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.119 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (0.418 sg:less-than-driver vs. -0.235 sg:total)
Blayne Barber (0.574 sg:less-than-driver vs. -0.079 sg:total)
Rob Oppenheim (0.207 sg:less-than-driver vs. -0.397 sg:total)
Martin Piller (0.456 sg:less-than-driver vs. -0.137 sg:total)
Dawie van der Walt (0.169 sg:less-than-driver vs. -0.41 sg:total)
Jamie Donaldson (1.116 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.538 sg:total)
Bronson Burgoon (0.769 sg:less-than-driver vs. 0.231 sg:total)
The only thing that leaps off the page at this point is that seven of the top 10 LT Driver specialists start with a negative Strokes Gained baseline. That means we may be in for a bit of parody atop of the leaderboard this week.
We lose a few big names at this stage but none of them are fade-worthy so we’ll move along with our search.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 70
Easy-to-Hit Greens
The field average GIR percentage has been over 67 percent each of the past four editions here at TPC Louisiana. Golfers will be peppering these greens all week.
When greens are easy to hit that means that GIR machines can thrive or great putters can flourish as the eight-footers they are usually sinking to save par are now going for birdies.
Last year there were 11 golfers that hit more than 80 percent of fairways for the week. Even the weakest of putters on TOUR can find their fair share of birdies when you give them that many looks at it.
The top 10 remaining Easy GIR Specialists:
Russell Henley (1.107 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.196 sg:total)
Cameron Tringale (1.035 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.381 sg:total)
Ben Martin (0.815 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.281 sg:total)
Tyler Aldridge (0.366 sg:easy GIR vs. -0.16 sg:total)
Morgan Hoffmann (0.436 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.037 sg:total)
David Toms (0.807 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.426 sg:total)
Brendon de Jonge (0.596 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.228 sg:total)
Vaughn Taylor (0.927 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.601 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (0.127 sg:easy GIR vs. -0.195 sg:total)
Brian Harman (0.628 sg:easy GIR vs. 0.341 sg:total)
That’s 2-for-2 for Tyler Aldridge. He withdrew last week, but there is likely no injury issue to worry about. He was stranded on Friday due to a rain delay and was a lock to miss the cut, so he packed it up early. This might be a nice bounceback spot based on the first two angles.
On the opposite side of the spectrum we have Chris Kirk. We talked about great putters or GIR machines excelling on these type of layouts. Kirk has finished outside the top 90 in SG:Putting in three of the last five years and he’s also nothing to write home about in hitting greens in regulation. His pure Tee-to-Green skill makes up for this some weeks, but with negative strokes gained in nine of his last 16 starts on Easy GIR courses, he might be a good fade this week.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 38
Bermuda Greens
Last but not least is the green surfaces this week. When bermuda greens are on tap it’s almost always important to look at golfers that have past success on these type of greens.
The Top 10 Bermuda Specialists that remain are:
Ben Martin (0.837 sg:bermuda vs. 0.281 sg:total)
Bryce Molder (0.601 sg:bermuda vs. 0.157 sg:total)
Erik Compton (0.246 sg:bermuda vs. -0.071 sg:total)
John Huh (0.371 sg:bermuda vs. 0.061 sg:total)
Whee Kim (0.164 sg:bermuda vs. -0.143 sg:total)
Roberto Castro (0.116 sg:bermuda vs. -0.176 sg:total)
Brian Davis (-0.067 sg:bermuda vs. -0.352 sg:total)
Charley Hoffman (0.974 sg:bermuda vs. 0.707 sg:total)
Morgan Hoffmann (0.249 sg:bermuda vs. 0.037 sg:total)
Tyler Aldridge (0.043 sg:bermuda vs. -0.16 sg:total)
That’s the trifecta for Aldridge. His baseline strokes gained is a bit low, but he could be in line for a top 30 this week if his performance on these angles hold true. His sample sizes are still pretty low on the PGA TOUR but the sleeper status is there.
The slightly alarming name we eliminate here is Jason Day. We saw him win on bermuda back at the API, but even with those strokes accounted for he’s still gaining 0.467 strokes per round less on bermuda. Even with his less-than-stellar bermuda record, he’s about five notches above the majority of this field and still makes for a great play. Just not a specialist.
GOLFERS REMAINING: 22
Baseline Performance
We’re keeping it simple this week with three highly correlated angles. There is a lot of filler leftover though, due to the large field that is weak as well.
Using a SG:Total threshold of 0.250 strokes per round, we can remove the following names:
Alex Cejka
Bryce Molder
Sean O’Hair
Brian Stuard
Seung-Yul Noh
John Huh
Morgan Hoffmann
Brett Stegmaier
Erik Compton
Whee Kim
Tyler Aldridge
Steve Wheatcroft
Roberto Castro
Troy Merritt
Brian Davis
D.A. Points
That list is ranked by their baseline strokes gained, so I would start at the top if you want to sprinkle them into a few GPPs. But now for the main attraction…
The Specialists
Ben Martin
Cameron Tringale
David Toms
David Hearn
Charley Hoffman
Daniel Berger
Our specialist of the week title goes to Ben Martin!
Martin is probably not who you expected to see here as a specialists, but the numbers don’t lie. They aren’t small samples either. Since the start of 2013-14 season he’s racked up 95 rounds on bermuda, 74 rounds on LT Driver courses, and 67 on Easy GIR courses.
Martin sports a few bad rounds here at TPC Louisiana but he also holds the course record, so we know he can go low.
The rest of the specialists all have a good finish or two here at the Zurich. Tringale is thee course horse this week. Toms has the local factor. Hearn is finding his form and has zero missed cuts on his Zurich resume.
Overall, I think we are in for another great week!
| Golfer | DK | SG:Total | Bermuda | LT Driver | Easy GIR | Specialist Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Aldridge | $6,300 | -0.16 | 0.203 | 0.91 | 0.527 | 0.546 |
| Matt Every | $5,700 | -0.56 | 0.904 | 0.951 | -0.399 | 0.485 |
| Ben Martin | $7,900 | 0.281 | 0.556 | 0.225 | 0.535 | 0.439 |
| Cameron Tringale | $8,600 | 0.381 | 0.033 | 0.465 | 0.654 | 0.384 |
| Blayne Barber | $7,000 | -0.079 | 0.564 | 0.653 | -0.125 | 0.364 |
| Whee Kim | $7,100 | -0.143 | 0.307 | 0.489 | 0.22 | 0.339 |
| Morgan Hoffmann | $6,700 | 0.037 | 0.212 | 0.396 | 0.398 | 0.335 |
| Stuart Appleby | $6,900 | 0.119 | 0.354 | 0.659 | -0.017 | 0.332 |
| Lucas Glover | $7,200 | -0.235 | 0.409 | 0.653 | -0.105 | 0.319 |
| D.A. Points | $6,600 | -0.754 | 0.145 | 0.538 | 0.229 | 0.304 |
| Russell Henley | $8,100 | 0.196 | -0.051 | 0.05 | 0.911 | 0.303 |
| Rob Oppenheim | $6,000 | -0.397 | 0.206 | 0.604 | 0 | 0.27 |
| John Huh | $7,300 | 0.061 | 0.31 | 0.239 | 0.216 | 0.255 |
| Steve Wheatcroft | $6,200 | -0.176 | 0.176 | 0.344 | 0.234 | 0.252 |
| Bronson Burgoon | $6,300 | 0.231 | 0.208 | 0.538 | 0 | 0.249 |
| Erik Compton | $6,600 | -0.071 | 0.317 | 0.21 | 0.217 | 0.248 |
| Jason Gore | $6,800 | 0.041 | 0.512 | 0.391 | -0.175 | 0.242 |
| Sean O’Hair | $7,600 | 0.12 | 0.039 | 0.428 | 0.239 | 0.235 |
| Vaughn Taylor | $6,800 | 0.601 | -0.01 | 0.371 | 0.325 | 0.229 |
| Bryce Molder | $7,000 | 0.157 | 0.444 | 0.096 | 0.143 | 0.228 |
| Roberto Castro | $6,600 | -0.176 | 0.292 | 0.138 | 0.255 | 0.228 |
| Brian Davis | $6,200 | -0.352 | 0.286 | 0.146 | 0.229 | 0.22 |
| Jamie Donaldson | $7,600 | 0.538 | 0.069 | 0.577 | 0 | 0.215 |
| David Toms | $6,700 | 0.426 | 0.02 | 0.195 | 0.38 | 0.198 |
| Martin Piller | $6,900 | -0.137 | 0 | 0.593 | 0 | 0.198 |
| Robert Streb | $6,900 | 0.597 | 0.026 | -0.015 | 0.571 | 0.194 |
| Jamie Lovemark | $8,400 | 0.287 | -0.03 | 0.304 | 0.268 | 0.181 |
| Troy Merritt | $7,100 | -0.202 | 0.167 | 0.195 | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Brett Stegmaier | $6,500 | -0.038 | 0.184 | 0.187 | 0.147 | 0.173 |
| Alex Prugh | $5,900 | -0.344 | -0.126 | 0.372 | 0.255 | 0.167 |
| Seung-Yul Noh | $7,300 | 0.091 | 0.19 | 0.24 | 0.068 | 0.166 |
| David Hearn | $7,500 | 0.285 | 0.033 | 0.262 | 0.178 | 0.158 |
| Derek Ernst | $5,700 | -1.055 | -0.01 | 0.265 | 0.212 | 0.156 |
| Charley Hoffman | $10,500 | 0.707 | 0.266 | 0.169 | 0.03 | 0.155 |
| Brendon de Jonge | $7,000 | 0.228 | -0.043 | 0.103 | 0.368 | 0.143 |
| Jerry Kelly | $7,500 | 0.51 | 0.186 | -0.243 | 0.474 | 0.139 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $7,100 | 0.005 | 0.056 | -0.119 | 0.462 | 0.133 |
| Mark Hubbard | $6,800 | -0.049 | -0.025 | 0.302 | 0.112 | 0.13 |
| Brian Stuard | $5,800 | 0.109 | 0.145 | 0.066 | 0.166 | 0.126 |
| Alex Cejka | $6,300 | 0.205 | 0.067 | 0.148 | 0.156 | 0.124 |
| Daniel Berger | $10,100 | 0.637 | 0.056 | 0.304 | 0.003 | 0.121 |
| Boo Weekley | $7,800 | -0.016 | 0.232 | -0.141 | 0.262 | 0.118 |
| John Senden | $7,200 | 0.465 | -0.083 | 0.494 | -0.086 | 0.108 |
| Tom Hoge | $6,600 | 0.117 | 0.225 | 0.292 | -0.231 | 0.096 |
| Charles Howell III | $8,700 | 0.726 | 0.005 | -0.024 | 0.298 | 0.093 |
| Justin Hicks | $5,600 | -0.229 | -0.04 | 0.066 | 0.246 | 0.091 |
| Kyle Stanley | $7,300 | -0.195 | -0.238 | 0.172 | 0.322 | 0.085 |
| Brian Harman | $7,100 | 0.341 | -0.056 | 0.009 | 0.286 | 0.08 |
| Justin Rose | $11,800 | 1.627 | -0.2 | -0.006 | 0.446 | 0.08 |
| Carl Pettersson | $6,000 | 0.053 | -0.015 | 0.006 | 0.23 | 0.074 |
| Luke List | $7,400 | 0.702 | 0.09 | 0.128 | 0 | 0.073 |
| Gary Woodland | $8,000 | 0.639 | 0.329 | -0.263 | 0.153 | 0.073 |
| James Hahn | $6,500 | -0.075 | -0.037 | 0.009 | 0.236 | 0.069 |
| Robert Allenby | $5,500 | -0.822 | 0.291 | 0.339 | -0.451 | 0.06 |
| Nick Taylor | $6,900 | -0.203 | -0.05 | 0.292 | -0.065 | 0.059 |
| Smylie Kaufman | $9,500 | 0.737 | 0.052 | 0.133 | -0.011 | 0.058 |
| Chad Collins | $6,400 | -0.121 | -0.039 | -0.109 | 0.323 | 0.058 |
| Michael Kim | $6,000 | -0.273 | -0.161 | -0.233 | 0.552 | 0.053 |
| Jeff Overton | $6,800 | 0.121 | -0.02 | -0.054 | 0.231 | 0.052 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $7,200 | 0.252 | 0.226 | -0.297 | 0.226 | 0.052 |
| Andres Romero | $6,900 | -0.045 | -0.187 | 0.173 | 0.169 | 0.051 |
| Jason Day | $12,500 | 1.865 | -0.467 | 0.468 | 0.148 | 0.05 |
| Scott Langley | $6,600 | 0.103 | -0.039 | 0.177 | -0.006 | 0.044 |
| Will Wilcox | $7,100 | 0.546 | -0.041 | 0.252 | -0.081 | 0.044 |
| Spencer Levin | $6,700 | 0.122 | -0.179 | -0.041 | 0.351 | 0.043 |
| Dawie van der Walt | $5,700 | -0.41 | -0.49 | 0.579 | 0 | 0.03 |
| Harold Varner III | $7,300 | -0.07 | -0.136 | -0.034 | 0.248 | 0.026 |
| Jason Bohn | $6,700 | 0.618 | -0.19 | -0.546 | 0.774 | 0.013 |
| Ken Duke | $6,200 | -0.383 | -0.066 | -0.048 | 0.141 | 0.009 |
| Andrew Loupe | $6,400 | -0.085 | 0.019 | 0.09 | -0.091 | 0.006 |
| Sam Saunders | $6,000 | -0.468 | -0.195 | 0.186 | 0.024 | 0.005 |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,700 | 0.538 | -0.348 | -0.31 | 0.664 | 0.002 |
| Kelly Kraft | $6,400 | -0.261 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henrik Norlander | $6,100 | -0.121 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Landry | $5,900 | -0.755 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byeong-Hun An | $8,300 | 0.027 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhein Gibson | $5,700 | -1.275 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Yelverton | $5,500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin Taylor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zach Wright | $5,600 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Ruffels | $5,800 | -0.466 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wyatt | $6,700 | -0.496 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Abraham Ancer | $5,800 | -1.701 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darron Stiles | $5,700 | -1.914 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lucas Lee | $5,700 | -1.916 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris DiMarco | $5,500 | -2.388 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Affrunti | $5,600 | -2.737 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julien Brun | $5,800 | -3.757 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.H. Lee | $5,900 | -1.373 | -0.475 | -0.74 | 1.203 | -0.004 |
| Hudson Swafford | $6,700 | 0.062 | -0.167 | -0.115 | 0.25 | -0.011 |
| Steve Stricker | $7,900 | 0.736 | -0.318 | 0.398 | -0.122 | -0.014 |
| Michael Putnam | $5,600 | -0.073 | -0.306 | -0.109 | 0.356 | -0.02 |
| Ben Crane | $6,300 | -0.203 | 0.145 | -0.161 | -0.062 | -0.026 |
| Luke Guthrie | $6,200 | 0.034 | -0.216 | 0.052 | 0.057 | -0.035 |
| Ricky Barnes | $7,800 | 0.008 | 0.189 | 0.135 | -0.445 | -0.041 |
| Keegan Bradley | $7,700 | 0.799 | -0.087 | 0.073 | -0.111 | -0.042 |
| Sung Kang | $6,100 | 0.317 | -0.233 | 0.085 | 0 | -0.05 |
| Chesson Hadley | $6,100 | -0.31 | 0.101 | 0.049 | -0.314 | -0.054 |
| Adam Hadwin | $6,600 | 0.223 | -0.187 | 0.011 | -0.033 | -0.07 |
| Freddie Jacobson | $7,600 | 0.438 | 0.035 | -0.162 | -0.109 | -0.079 |
| Tom Gillis | $6,200 | -0.496 | -0.406 | 0.273 | -0.128 | -0.087 |
| Chad Campbell | $7,200 | 0.357 | -0.15 | -0.101 | -0.021 | -0.091 |
| Patton Kizzire | $8,200 | 0.737 | -0.155 | 0.105 | -0.228 | -0.092 |
| Anirban Lahiri | $7,700 | -0.043 | -0.255 | 0 | -0.02 | -0.092 |
| Rod Pampling | $5,700 | -0.267 | 0 | -0.275 | 0 | -0.092 |
| Vijay Singh | $6,100 | 0.048 | -0.255 | -0.008 | -0.032 | -0.098 |
| Billy Horschel | $10,300 | 0.624 | 0.037 | -0.212 | -0.146 | -0.107 |
| Greg Owen | $6,500 | -0.355 | 0.077 | -0.516 | 0.117 | -0.107 |
| Scott Stallings | $6,400 | -0.407 | -0.211 | -0.358 | 0.227 | -0.114 |
| Danny Lee | $8,500 | 0.463 | -0.317 | -0.035 | -0.007 | -0.12 |
| George McNeill | $7,000 | 0.464 | 0.168 | 0.028 | -0.565 | -0.123 |
| Marc Leishman | $9,100 | 0.778 | -0.033 | -0.351 | -0.011 | -0.132 |
| Wes Roach | $6,200 | -0.358 | 0.091 | -0.385 | -0.109 | -0.135 |
| Geoff Ogilvy | $6,300 | -0.375 | -0.119 | -0.156 | -0.14 | -0.138 |
| Retief Goosen | $6,500 | 0.086 | 0.02 | -0.142 | -0.324 | -0.149 |
| Thomas Aiken | $6,800 | -0.171 | 0.037 | -0.335 | -0.154 | -0.151 |
| Chris Kirk | $9,800 | 0.543 | 0.191 | 0.215 | -0.876 | -0.157 |
| Michael Thompson | $6,800 | -0.018 | 0.171 | -0.354 | -0.292 | -0.159 |
| Kyle Reifers | $7,300 | 0.147 | -0.366 | -0.261 | 0.144 | -0.161 |
| Scott Pinckney | $6,400 | -0.142 | 0.15 | -0.234 | -0.405 | -0.163 |
| Miguel Angel Carballo | $5,800 | -0.868 | -0.499 | 0 | 0 | -0.166 |
| Brice Garnett | $6,100 | -0.183 | -0.127 | -0.614 | 0.218 | -0.175 |
| Chez Reavie | $7,400 | 0.286 | -0.095 | -0.442 | -0.027 | -0.188 |
| Jonas Blixt | $7,400 | -0.023 | -0.276 | 0.072 | -0.379 | -0.194 |
| Rickie Fowler | $11,100 | 1.19 | -0.161 | 0.046 | -0.476 | -0.197 |
| Andres Gonzales | $5,800 | -0.565 | -0.407 | -0.173 | -0.02 | -0.2 |
| Jon Curran | $7,100 | 0.074 | -0.283 | -0.133 | -0.187 | -0.201 |
| Hunter Mahan | $7,000 | 0.329 | -0.533 | -0.155 | 0.063 | -0.208 |
| Robert Garrigus | $6,100 | -0.242 | -0.412 | -0.193 | -0.023 | -0.21 |
| D.J. Trahan | $5,900 | -0.947 | -0.326 | -0.668 | 0.359 | -0.211 |
| Cameron Percy | $6,000 | -0.062 | 0.137 | -0.46 | -0.315 | -0.213 |
| Aaron Baddeley | $7,800 | 0.279 | -0.269 | -0.243 | -0.195 | -0.236 |
| K.J. Choi | $7,500 | 0.278 | 0.119 | -0.436 | -0.396 | -0.237 |
| J.J. Henry | $5,700 | -0.318 | -0.464 | -0.22 | -0.061 | -0.248 |
| Tyrone Van Aswegen | $6,400 | -0.235 | -0.441 | -0.49 | 0.104 | -0.276 |
| Brendon Todd | $6,200 | 0.474 | -0.378 | -0.43 | -0.055 | -0.288 |
| Chris Stroud | $6,500 | 0.228 | -0.642 | -0.313 | 0.063 | -0.298 |
| Richard Lee | $5,900 | -0.478 | -0.23 | -0.749 | 0 | -0.326 |
| Billy Hurley III | $5,900 | 0.04 | -0.275 | -0.429 | -0.283 | -0.329 |
| Tim Wilkinson | $6,000 | -0.211 | -0.208 | -0.262 | -0.563 | -0.344 |
| Trevor Immelman | $5,600 | -0.727 | -0.134 | -0.31 | -0.59 | -0.345 |
| Carlos Ortiz | $6,100 | -0.143 | -0.256 | -0.5 | -0.393 | -0.383 |
| Brian Gay | $5,900 | -0.661 | -0.569 | -0.587 | 0 | -0.386 |
| Hiroshi Iwata | $6,500 | -0.078 | -0.392 | 0.511 | -1.284 | -0.388 |
| Cameron Beckman | $5,800 | -1.238 | -0.105 | -1.175 | -0.007 | -0.429 |
| Steve Marino | $6,300 | -0.252 | -0.357 | -0.274 | -0.713 | -0.448 |
| Dicky Pride | $5,600 | -0.912 | -0.76 | -0.001 | -0.605 | -0.455 |
| Tim Herron | $5,500 | -0.762 | -0.549 | -0.474 | -0.691 | -0.571 |
| Angel Cabrera | $6,000 | -0.281 | -0.28 | -0.465 | -1.002 | -0.582 |
| Mike Weir | $5,600 | -1.954 | -0.189 | -0.699 | -0.927 | -0.605 |