Seige's Slate Strategy: Monday, March 27th
Welcome to another Monday edition of Seige’s Slate Strategy. Before I begin, I first want to congratulate RotoGrinders contributor (along with Seige’s Tournament Tactics podcast contributor), Wining247, on taking down second place in the WFBC in dramatic fashion, jumping three spots on the Jae Crowder FTs and James Johnson rebound.
We’ve done a fades article the last couple weeks and there’s been some good feedback, so let’s roll it out one more week.
FADE: Entire Slate
I’m dead serious when I start with this. This is one of the worst slates of the year. As Andy Means pointed out on Twitter (@ameansy), there are six games total, five of them with a bottom-five team in pace. The other is Detroit (10th slowest) vs New York (12th slowest).
When you pile on the fact that there are a ton of injury news question marks in the 10:30 games between Memphis, Sacramento and the Pelicans, the slate simply becomes less desirable. With the Masters and MLB starting up next week, this is a good time to earn yourself some good husband/wife/girlfriend/boyfriend points and take them out to a surprise dinner. Or even get ready for MLB with a (shameless plug) private lesson.
FADE: Russell Westbrook – $12,500 – Oklahoma City Thunder
If you ignore my first FADE play of the day, make sure you follow this one. Russell Westbrook just played an emotional game against the Rockets that was a battle for four quarters and now he goes to a slow team in Dallas on the back end of the back-to-back. With no obvious value on the slate, going balanced seems to be the play, as this is a major pace-down spot for Westbrook. Simply put, I don’t think he will get into the mid-70s today, which makes him an auto-fade.
FADE: Jrue Holiday – $6,700 – New Orleans Pelicans
It’s so easy to say, “of course we will fade Holiday against the Utah Jazz!” but given the very reduced price tag on him, I think we’ll see throughout the day people talk about reasons to play him. You’ll hear that he’s better with Boogie out (true, by the way) and that the Pelicans’ points have to come from somewhere (also true), but this is a major pace-down spot and in the last meeting this game ended 88-83. If you want to invest in this game, invest in the big men.
FADE: Rodney Hood – $3,900 – Utah Jazz
With Gordon Hayward likely out, Rodney Hood will be as chalky as they come in terms of plays, but I really don’t like the matchup for him against Solomon Hill. Hood hasn’t played more than 23 minutes since coming back from yet another injury, and you have to wonder if they are going to roll him out for 30-32 just because Hayward is out. Hood, of course, can smash value in only 23-25 minutes at this absurdly cheap price tag, but do you want to take a guy with a capped ceiling who is chalk? I would much rather find the extra $200 for Joe Ingles or Joe Johnson who we know can play into the 30s for minutes.
With that, good luck everyone. As always, post your thoughts/questions/praise in the comments section below!