NFL DFS Smash Percentage and Range of Outcomes Tool: DraftKings

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About This Tool

— The NFL DFS Smash tool helps you visualize the expected success rate of players based on their range of outcome.

— The data is calculated from our play-by-play simulation trials.

— Using range of outcomes to make DFS decisions is a proven method to increase your chances of success in NFL DFS tournaments.

— Understanding how often a player reaches tournament winning value compared to their field ownership % is method long used by top players to help set their exposures in top heavy payout structures.

— This chart is intended to help you understand a players probability of high upside.

Smash %: The percentage of the time a player exceeds tournament winning value, based on their salary and position. Winning a tournament takes varying level of success relative to your field of opponents, and the standard of “tournament winning value” is set based on past tournament winning scores. The needs of this exact slate may vary from this pre-determined threshold.

Value %: The percentage of the time a player exceeds their viable value threshold, based on their salary and position. Viable value is a standard of minimum acceptability if expecting a lineup to reach ITM status, though the needs of this exact slate may vary from this threshold.

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About the Author

  • Chris Gimino (ChrisGimino)

  • Chris Gimino is a top mind in the DFS industry and one of the primary contributors at RotoGrinders including one of the most accurate ownership projection systems in the industry. A multiple time live-finalist, Chris delivers actionable tools and advice for RotoGrinders Premium subscribers that helps them make informed decisions for their lineup builds.

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