Sonty's Single Entry Series: NFL Week 12

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Single entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures; and different from mass-multi-entry play in that we’re firing a single bullet. Yet, the common flaws are usually that the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces — not enough correlation or leverage; or the field will over-leverage for the size of their contests.

In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI, using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of ownership.

First, we’ll look at stacks; then, we’ll go position-by-position.

STACKS

DK CHALK — Dolphins

As 14-point favorites, we have a decision: Play it conventionally with Jeff Wilson in a blowout, play it aggressively to gobble up the passing attack creating the blowout, or staying out of the way. All three approaches have their dangers. Casually playing Wilson could miss out on three or four passing TDs from Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, aggressively going after the passing game could miss out on Wilson-heavy volume steering the ship, and fading this game is fading the highest implied total on the slate.

About the Author

AlexSonty
Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player and also serves as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, pivoting from high-stakes cash games to mid-stakes MLB and NFL tournaments in recent years. He is a Chicago Tribune, SB Nation, and FanGraphs alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University. Follow Sonty on Twitter – @AlexSonty