Sonty's Single Entry Series: NFL Week 8
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Single entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures; and different from mass-multi-entry play in that we’re firing a single bullet. Yet, the common flaws are usually that the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces — not enough correlation or leverage; or the field will over-leverage for the size of their contests.
In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI, using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of ownership.
First, we’ll look at stacks; then, we’ll go position-by-position.
STACKS
CHALK — Dolphins
The Dolphins’ 27.50 implied total is the highest on the slate and they could be ~25% owned in SE. This is partially because of the Dolphins, but also largely because of the Lions. DET is 31st in defense DVOA, this game is in a dome, and it isn’t one or two big games skewing the results, as DET is printing receipts every week at home. Tua Tagovailoa is a top-three projected QB and Tyreek Hill is a top-three projected WR. Jaylen Waddle projects well enough for the price tags and Amon-Ra St. Brown is a great bringback that makes the complete correlation fairly simple.