Sonty's Single Entry Series: NFL Week 9
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Single entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures; and different from mass-multi-entry play in that we’re firing a single bullet. Yet, the common flaws are usually that the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces — not enough correlation or leverage; or the field will over-leverage for the size of their contests.
In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI, using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of ownership.
First, we’ll look at stacks; then, we’ll go position-by-position. This week, a ton on stacks.
STACKS
PROJECTION — Bills
The Bills have the highest implied total on the slate (28.50) and there’s a huge gap between Josh Allen and everyone else in projections. Stefon Diggs is a top-three WR on the slate and Gabe Davis does Gabe Davis things downfield a handful of times per game. These are all really good plays. They’re much better together, given the high ownership. And Davis doesn’t negatively correlate with Diggs as much as WRs normally do because Davis isn’t a target monster; he can have a huge game on four or five targets, leaving pretty of room for Diggs’ game breathe.