Sports Card Investing - Targeting PSA 9 Graded Cards
Last week I focused on targeting high-subgrade BGS 9.5 cards with the intent of resubmitting them to PSA in hopes they could score a 10. This week I want to focus on another pricing trend which we might be able to take advantage of. This one was brought to my attention by highly-ranked DFSer and sports card investor PigskinABlanket. I play a lot of Showdown slates during NFL season so I am well-aware of Pigskin as a name I frequently see high up in the standings of the contests I enter. The price action on PSA 9 cards tend to follow PSA 10 cards. So when a PSA 10 card has a sudden spike, it may take some time for the PSA 9 card to catch up to the pace. This gives us an opportunity to predict the price action of a lagging PSA 9 card simply by comparing it’s chart to the PSA 10 counterpart. In order to find some names to demonstrate this trend and give us this week’s targets, I’m going to use SportsCardInvestor.com’s “Price Movements by Card” list which you can access today as well by signing up for a Market Movers Subscription where if you use the promo code ROTOGRINDERS you can get 20% off your first payment on any subscription.
We will generally target Panini brands for football and basketball as they own exclusive NFL and NBA rights for sports cards. Just like DFS, be sure to manage your bankroll and don’t spend more than what your budget allows. Make sure you pay attention to the grading when looking at targets. Grading makes a huge difference in price, so price targets will be based on grading. An ungraded card is referred to as “Raw”. When targeting a Raw card, try to find one with the best centering, corners and edges (and surface if you can tell) as that is a card that might be worth sending in for grading. We’ll use SportsCardInvestor’s Market Movers data to evaluate current-market price targets based on what people have been paying most recently. Go above/below that market rate based on your convictions and confidence levels by player.
Sports Card Investing – Targeting PSA 9 Graded Cards
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Michael Porter Jr. – First up we’re going to take a look at a player frequently mentioned on our Sports Card Grinders show and a popular name in the RotoGrinders Sports Card Discord channel. Michael Porter Jr is a name I saw pop up as a riser on the Price Movements list and when I checked out a comparison of his PSA 10 vs PSA 9 Prizm Silver cards I discovered a potential opportunity to buy low. You can see his 2018 Prizm Silver card has spiked recently to $267 whereas his PSA 9 has remained steady at $87 (about 32% of the PSA 10 price). That’s about a nice discount from the 36%+ difference in pricing the cards have had in the past.
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
2018 Michael Porter Jr. Prizm Silver PSA 10
2018 Michael Porter Jr. Prizm Silver PSA 9 – Target Under $90
Pascal Siakam – Siakam is the next player whose 2016 Prizm Silver PSA 9 was significantly lagging behind a recent spike in his PSA 10. As you can see from the chart the PSA 9 is pretty flat compared to the recent move of the PSA 10 presenting an opportunity to buy it cheap before NBA returns.
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
2016 Pascal Siakam Prizm Silver PSA 10
2016 Pascal Siakam Prizm Silver PSA 9 – Target Under $150
Luka Doncic – It’s always good when you see a buying opportunity in a popular name like Luka Doncic. When comparing the PSA 9 and 10 price action of his 2018 Prizm Base cards. Judging from the chart we can see a little divergence between the two trends where the PSA 9 is lagging by about 10% compared to different points in time. If you are looking to buy a Luka card, this may be your opportunity.
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
2018 Luka Doncic Prizm Base PSA 10
2018 Luka Doncic Prizm Base PSA 9 – Target Under $200
Zion Williamson – We normally look at Zion’s Prizm Silver in these articles. This week we’re going to take a look at his Optic Holo card. The Zion cards have been on a bit of a downward trend in recent weeks which seems like a good opportunity in general with New Orleans’ season about to be extended with a potential playoff spot up for grabs as well. This will give Zion more opportunity to live up to his hype and a national stage hungry for sports. If we look at the comparison between his Optic Holo PSA 9 and 10 cards, we can see some recent divergence. While the sample size is small, if you can pick up an undervalued Zion card right before the return of NBA, it might be a good time to do so with his PSA 9.
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
2019 Zion Williamson Optic Holo PSA 10
2019 Zion Williamson Optic Holo PSA 9 – Target Under $450
As a bonus this week I wanted to point out the recent drop in Dak Prescott’s 2016 Prizm PSA 10 rookie card. I’ve been tracking this card for a while looking for a buying opportunity and I think it’s getting pretty close. Prices soared as high as $440 after the NFL Draft but recent auctions have it going in the low $300s which is where I would want to buy ahead of the NFL season. He’s set up for a big year so if you can scoop him up at a nice discount it would be something worth considering.
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com