Sports Card Investing Targets - Finding Value In Graded Cards

The NBA and MLB seasons have resumed and I’ve got a few potentially undervalued cards to target. This week I’m going to compare NBA and MLB players across brands and grades and use the new Market Movers ratio data to see if we can find some value in Zion Williamson rookie cards. You can sign up for your own Market Movers Subscription to access the data on your own and by using the promo code GRINDERS you will get 20% off your first payment on any subscription. You will want to sign up for Market Movers specifically in order to access the great tools and data, and if you sign up for the annual Market Movers subscription, you will save you 20% on the entire year instead of just the first month. I’ll be adding additional targets at the end of the article from previous articles so you can see if you can still find the cards within the target range.

We will generally target Panini brands for football and basketball as they own exclusive NFL and NBA rights for sports cards. Just like DFS, be sure to manage your bankroll and don’t spend more than what your budget allows. Make sure you pay attention to the grading when looking at targets. Grading makes a huge difference in price, so price targets will be based on grading. An ungraded card is referred to as “Raw”. When targeting a Raw card, try to find one with the best centering, corners and edges (and surface if you can tell) as that is a card that might be worth sending in for grading. We’ll use SportsCardInvestor’s Market Movers data to evaluate current-market price targets based on what people have been paying most recently. Go above/below that market rate based on your convictions and confidence levels by player.

Sports Card Investing Targets – Finding Value In Comparing Cards

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Juan Soto – First up we’ll take a look at this week’s MLB player, Juan Soto. As you can see from the chart, Soto’s 2018 Topps Chrome Update PSA 9 and 10 cards are diverging a bit which is what we like to see when we’re hunting for value in those PSA 9 cards. If we look back to July 12th, the PSA 9 ($59) held about 44% of the PSA 10 price ($135.26). Currently selling for $54, the PSA 9 only holds about 32% of the PSA 10 value ($168.32) leaving us with about 37% upside if the PSA 9 can make a run to catch back up to that recent price difference.

Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com

Sports Card Description Target Price
2018 Juan Soto Topps Chrome Update Base PSA 9 Target Under $55
2018 Juan Soto Topps Chrome Update Base PSA 10 Target Under $160

Anthony Davis – The Lakers are the favorites to win it all this season and Anthony Davis is positioned perfectly for a bump from increased attention on his rookie cards. Taking a look at his 2012 Hoops rookie cards, we can see some value in his BGS 9.5 cards if we compare them to their PSA 10 counterparts. If we look back on July 12th the BGS 9.5 ($189) was worth 53% of the value of a PSA 10 ($355). Since then the prices on the PSA 10 have shot through the roof currently selling for $1,162 whereas the BGS 9.5 is going for 32% of the value at $375. That leaves room for 66% upside on the BGS 9.5 if it is able to move back closer to 53% of the PSA 10 value from a few weeks ago.

Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com

Sports Card Description Target Price
2012 Anthony Davis Hoops BGS 9.5 Target Under $375
2012 Anthony Davis Hoops PSA 10 Target Under $1000

LeBron James – Next up we’ll take a look at LeBron James’ 2019 Prizm cards. These are the first Prizms with LeBron in his Lakers uniform and they are experiencing a price spike as the Lakers have continued their mission to win a championship. If we compare historic prices between the PSA 9 and PSA 10 versions of the card we can see that back on July 3rd the PSA 9s ($50) held about 27% of the value of their PSA 10 ($185) counterparts. Currently at $192.41, the PSA 9 holds 24% of the PSA 10 ($802.33) upside leaving around 13% upside on those PSA 9s to catch up to the earlier discrepancy and potentially a lot more than that if the Lakers fulfill their championship dreams this season.

Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com

Sports Card Description Target Price
2019 Lebron James Prizm PSA 9 Target Under $195
2019 Lebron James Prizm PSA 10 Target Under $750

Donovan Mitchell – Donovan Mitchell’s 2017 Prizm Base PSA 10 cards have had a recent surge as the Jazz march towards the playoffs. Utah has already clinched a spot in the playoffs which means Donovan has plenty of room for catalysts to propel his cards even higher. His 2017 Optic Base PSA 10 counterparts have been lagging behind presenting us with an opportunity to buy low in anticipation of an upward move similar to the PSA 10s. As recently as July 10th, the Optic ($130) held 64% of the value of a Prizm ($202.50). Currently the Optic sells for $155 which is only 40% of the value of the most recent Prizm price ($389.99). That gives us about 60% upside on the 2017 Optic PSA 10 if we use that recent precedent for price differential.

Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com

Sports Card Description Target Price
2017 Donovan Mitchell Optic Base PSA 10 Target Under $155
2017 Donovan Mitchell Prizm Base PSA 10 Target Under $340

Zion Williamson – Finally, we’ll take a look at Zion Williamson’s rookie cards by using the new Market Movers “Ratio” feature where we can compare price ratios between similar cards to see if we can find value at current levels. If we look at the chart below running ratio comparisons between graded 2019 Optic and Prizm cards we can see for the most part they are pretty consistent. The Optic Holo PSA 10, for example, is valued at 7.01X the price of the base card vs the Prizm Silver PSA 10 being 6.36X more valuable than the Prizm base version. But I do recognize a pretty significant difference when we compare the 5.08 ratio between Optic Holo PSA 9 and 10 cards vs just 3.75X for the Prizm Silver PSA 9 and 10 cards. This leads me to believe that the Prizm Silver PSA 10 might be undervalued compared to the Optic Holo PSA 10. “Undervalued” seems like a strange thing to say when looking at a $4,875 Zion rookie card, but it is also possible that the Holo PSA 9 cards could be undervalued at just $446 which seems more likely.

Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com

Sports Card Description Target Price
2019 Zion Williamson Prizm Silver PSA 10 Target Under $4,900
2019 Zion Williamson Optic Holo PSA 9 Target Under $450

As always you can sign up for your own Market Movers Subscription to access the data on your own and by using the promo code GRINDERS you will get 20% off your first payment on any subscription.

As our weekly bonus in our articles, here is a list of cards from recent articles that you can check out to see if you can still buy at the target prices. Just click right on the links next to the cards to get to the eBay searches. Here are the additional targets we’ve recently featured in our articles:

Sports Card Description Target Price
2017 Kenny Golladay Prizm Silver PSA 10 Target Under $100
2017 Kenny Golladay Prizm Silver PSA 9 Target Under $20
2014 Odell Beckham Jr Contenders Auto #277 PSA 10 Target Under $170
2014 Odell Beckham Jr Contenders Auto #277 Raw! Target Under $70
2018 DJ Chark Contenders Optic Purple Auto Raw Target Under $30
2018 Darrius Slayton National Treasures RPA Raw Target Under $20
2019 Diontae Johnson Contenders Optic Raw Target Under $20
2013 Giannis Antetokounmpo Prizm PSA 10
2003 LeBron James Topps Chrome PSA 10
2018 Luka Doncic Prizm PSA 10
2017 Lonzo Ball Donruss Optic Basketball Base PSA 10 Target Under $75
2017 Lonzo Ball Donruss Optic Basketball Base PSA 9 Target Under $30
2017 Lonzo Ball Donruss Optic Basketball Base Raw Target Under $5
2019 RJ Barrett Donruss Optic Basketball HOLO PSA 10 Target Under $300
2019 RJ Barrett Donruss Optic Basketball HOLO PSA 9 Target Under $125
2019 RJ Barrett Donruss Optic Basketball HOLO Raw Target Under $50
2016 Dak Prescott Prizm Silver PSA 10 Target Under $380
2016 Dak Prescott Prizm Silver PSA 9 Target Under $115
2016 Dak Prescott Prizm Silver BGS 9.5 Target Under $200
2016 Dak Prescott Optic Holo PSA 10 Target Under $290
2016 Dak Prescott Optic Holo PSA 9 Target Under $110
2016 Dak Prescott Optic Holo BGS 9.5 Target Under $125
2017 Deshaun Watson Prizm Silver PSA 10 Target Under $450
2017 Deshaun Watson Prizm Silver PSA 9 Target Under $125
2017 Deshaun Watson Prizm Silver BGS 9.5 Target Under $250
2017 Deshaun Watson Optic Holo PSA 10 Target Under $350
2017 Deshaun Watson Optic Holo PSA 9 Target Under $140
2017 Deshaun Watson Optic Holo BGS 9.5 Target Under $175
2019 Rui Hachimura Prizm Basketball Base PSA 10 Target Under $100
2019 Rui Hachimura Prizm Basketball Base PSA 9 Target Under $30
2019 Rui Hachimura Prizm Basketball Base BGS 9.5 Target Under $60
2019 Kevin Porter Jr. Prizm Basketball Base PSA 10 Target Under $80
2019 Kevin Porter Jr. Prizm Basketball Base PSA 9 Target Under $20
2019 Kevin Porter Jr. Prizm Basketball Base BGS 9.5 Target Under $40
2018 Trae Young Optic Basketball Base PSA 10 Target Under $180
2018 Trae Young Optic Basketball Base PSA 9 Target Under $60
2018 Trae Young Optic Basketball Base BGS 9.5 Target Under $110
2018 Gleyber Torres Topps Heritage PSA 9 Target Under $15
2018 Shohei Ohtani Topps Chrome Update PSA 9 Target Under $45
2015 Devin Booker Prizm Base PSA 9 Target Under $130
2016 Brandon Ingram Prizm Base PSA 9 Target Under $120
2018 Shai Gilgeous Alexander Base PSA 9 Target Under $75
Zion Williamson 2019 Optic Basketball Base PSA 10 Target $250
Zion Williamson 2019 Optic Basketball Base PSA 9 Target $100
Zion Williamson 2019 Optic Basketball Base BGS 9.5 Target $150
Ja Morant 2019 Optic Basketball Base PSA 10 Target $225
Ja Morant 2019 Optic Basketball Base PSA 9 Target $70
Ja Morant 2019 Optic Basketball Base BGS 9.5 Target $100

About the Author

  • Simon Edwards (Pumacom)

  • Simon is a long-time sports card collector who spent the majority of his cash as a kid investing in cards to sell at card shows. In 2009-2010 he owned an affiliate collectables website along with sports-card legend, Don West, where they did box breaks and sold cards. Simon recently got back into sports card investing after the market reset itself and investability returned to the market.

Comments

  • bliss75

    Wow. The $$$ is getting up there for Cards. I have some sports cards I have had stored away for over 20 years, should get them out and check. Bo jackson rookie in football and baseball, deon Sanders baseball, First dream team cards with Bird, jordan, etc. E Smith football rookie, several M Jordan cards. Pretty much about 300 random cards from 1984’ to about 98’.

  • Beatmycan

    What makes the LeBron card so valuable if it isn’t a rookie card.??

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