Starting 5: Ceiling and Consistency - Friday, January 23rd
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Ceiling and Consistency tool using FanDuel pricing.
Point Guard – Elfrid Payton (ORL)
In case you haven’t noticed, Elfrid Payton has been a very solid daily fantasy play for the past several weeks. He’s locked into the starting lineup, is playing 30 or more minutes on a nightly basis, and has started shooting the ball more. All of this has translated into consistent, high level production at a still very affordable price tag.
Given I’m much more concerned with how Payton has been performing recently as opposed to over the course of the entire season, I looked at just the past three weeks using the Ceiling and Consistency tool. I chose to sort by %4x because I feel like this view gives the best representation of just how consistent Payton has been. He and Jeff Teague are the only two players to reach 4x (4 points per $1000) 80 percent of the time. After Payton, the number falls pretty quick. Also note how his 5x and 6x values compare to the others. Not only has be been consistent, but he has relatively high potential for 6x or greater upside. It’s very clear that he’s offering incredible value at his current price tag.
Combine all of this with a matchup with the Knicks and their abysmal defensive rating, Jose Calderon’s bad defense, and the fact that Orlando has really been pushing the pace (as evidenced by the 206 O/U in a game between two bad teams), and you have yourself an a play that’s simply too good to pass up.
Shooting Guard – Eric Gordon (NO)
Jrue Holiday is looking at an extended absence, and the return of Anthony Davis sure didn’t hurt Eric Gordon last game. He had his best game of the season against the Lakers, and he’ll likely keep it going against the equally bad Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. Again, I’ve run the tool using the last three weeks because that time period is relevant, whereas the entire season is not. With Jrue Holiday out, Gordon is seeing increased opportunities on the offensive end. The increased touches are resulting in more points and assists. A look at the entire season doesn’t give an accurate representation of the situation Gordon is in now.
I chose to include two screenshots here, one sorted by 4x, and the other by 5x. I wanted to illustrate that while Gordon is offering a high level of consistency that makes him an excellent cash game play, he’s also very likely to give you the upside that you’re looking for in a GPP. In fact, of all available SGs, he’s reached 5x more often than any of them over the past 3 weeks. You can roster Gordon with confidence tomorrow, especially considering the matchup with Minnesota’s dreadful defense.
Small Forward – Andrew Wiggins (MIN)
If there’s one thing that’s readily apparent from the tool, it’s that finding a consistent option with a good chance of high upside is very difficult at the small forward position. LeBron James and Kevin Durant are always going to be very good options, but due to their price, it’s extremely difficult for them to eclipse that 5x threshold. This is fine when we can find solid value plays at other positions, and those certainly exist today, but you don’t need a tool or a writeup to tell you to use either of these guys, especially in your cash game lineups.
The play for me is Andrew Wiggins, who has been offering the level of consistency and upside that we’re looking for in both cash and GPP lineups. Keep in mind he’s probably going to see less shots once Kevin Martin returns, but given he’s going to be their franchise player, I doubt he sees any less minutes. Wiggins is one of two players to reach 4× 70 percent of the time over the past 3 weeks. I’m not counting Quincy Acy because he’s not currently in the Knicks rotation. Wiggins also offers the possibility of 5x, or even 6x upside, which is extremely valuable when constructing GPP lineups. Small forward is a position that is nearly absent of consistent players. Players who do have high upside tend to be boom or bust players that don’t reach the 4x value threshold nearly often enough to consider in our cash game lineups. Wiggins is one of the few options that offers upside while retaining a high enough floor that you can be reasonably comfortable he won’t tank your lineup.
Power Forward – J.J. Hickson (DEN)
J.J. Hickson is one of the most consistent options you’re going to find right now. Despite his excellent production, his price hasn’t really moved. He’s one of two legitimate options that has reached 4x over 75 percent of the time over the past three weeks. What’s very impressive is that he’s reached 5× 67 percent of the time, and 6× 33 percent of the time. It’s only a nine-game sample, but looking at the whole season would include several games where Timofey Mozgov was still a member of the Nuggets, and Hickson was receiving less playing time. His minutes have ramped up, and he’s going to likely see a bigger boost if Kenneth Faried, who is currently questionable with an illness, is forced to miss tonight’s game. Jusuf Nurkic is also questionable, and was unable to finish last practice. If both are out, Shaw has no choice but to play Hickson heavy minutes tonight.
Add in a matchup with an undersized Boston frontcourt that hemorrhages fantasy points to opposing power forwards and centers, and we’re looking at an excellent power forward value play that offers a high level of consistency, with a very high likelihood of significant upside.
Center – Tyson Chandler (DAL)
Sorting the Center options by 4x, Tyson Chandler looks like the only consistent option available. He’s the only player on tonight’s slate who’s reached 4x over 75% of the time, and while DeMarcus Cousins looks like a good option, I wouldn’t advocate using him on the road against Golden State in a likely blowout. Hassan Whiteside is another player that looks very good, but he’s questionable with an ankle injury, so we can’t rely on him either.
Chandler is a top cash game option today, and it appears that the real issue with him is upside. He’s reached 5x once in the past nine games, and hasn’t reached 6x at all. However, when we consider the matchup against a Bulls team that’s playing the second leg of a back-to-back, and has been giving up a lot of big games to opposing centers, we can confidently roll Chandler out in our lineups tonight.