Starting 5 - Ceiling and Consistency: Friday, March 6th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Ceiling and Consistency tool. I’ll be using FanDuel pricing as a basis for today’s analysis, focusing on players that make for terrific cash game options due to both their consistency, and probability of exceeding their value threshold.
Point Guard: Mo Williams, Charlotte Hornets, $7400
Mo has been fantastic since his move to Charlotte, posting solid fantasy numbers every night regardless of matchup. He’s playing nearly 38 minutes per night, and he’s been one of the most consistent players in the NBA over the past several games. I changed the Ceiling and Consistency view to the past week because I’m only concerned with what he’s been doing recently. HIs performances with Minnesota simply don’t matter to me at this point because it’s an apples and oranges comparison.
As you can see, in four games over the past week, he’s met 5x value 100% of the time, and that’s based on his increased salary. He also reached 6x once, which is elite fantasy production that some players almost never achieve. As an added bonus, Steve Clifford has already said that Williams will remain in the starting lineup when Kemba Walker returns, so you can be confident that Williams is going to continue to be a focal point of Charlotte’s offense.
Note also that George Hill appears on this list, and I consider him a terrific play against Aaron Brooks and the Bulls. I think starting your cash game lineups with these two players is a great way to start the lineup building process.
Shooting Guard: Rodney Stuckey, Indiana Pacers, $5300
It’s perfectly acceptable to play bench guys when they’re giving you the consistent and high upside production that Stuckey is offering. Shooting guard is a position full of inconsistent players that very capable of sending your lineup straight down the toilet. The upper echelon of players, excluding James Harden, are guys that are overpriced (Eric Bledsoe), and not worth rostering in cash games because of the concessions you’ll have to make at stronger positions, and the likelihood that you’ll overpay for production that you could have gotten for a cheaper price.
Stuckey, however, is perfect. He’s very affordable, and based on the last three weeks, he’s exactly the type of player you want in your cash game lineups, especially at a tough position like shooting guard. He’s giving you 4x value 83% of the time. What’s really exciting is the fact that he’s met or exceeded 6x value 50% of the time. He’s a focal point of the offense when he’s on the court, and given he’s settled in to a consistent 30 or so minutes, I have no problem with targeting him liberally in both cash games and GPPs tonight.
Small Forward: Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs, $7300
Leonard’s slump is officially over, and cash game players should be locking him into their lineups every single night until his price is back up to where it should be. Looking at the past week, Leonard reached 5x value two out of three games, missing the mark by one fantasy point in the other (only played 29 minutes). Not included in this view is a game against Portland where he scored 36.1 fantasy points, which would have put him 0.4 short of that 5x value mark as well. Needless to say, he’s back and producing elite numbers for those who roster him.
Leonard draws a great matchup against a Denver team that is playing much better since Brian Shaw was fired, but still offers little to no resistance on the defense end of the floor. Pencil Leonard in for at least another 30 fantasy points, with upside around 40. At a thin small forward position, he should be locked into every one of your cash game lineups without question.
Power Forward: Nikola Mirotic, Chicago Bulls, $4500
Mirotic’s ownership percentage is going be through the roof, but even considering fading him in cash games is a big mistake. Looking at the past week, the only game Mirotic didn’t reach 6x value was a game he only played 19 minutes in because Jimmy Butler hadn’t been hurt yet. He still managed 19.3 fantasy points in the game, good for about one fantasy point per minute. In his past three, he’s well over that mark. In fact, if there were a column for 7x value, and you could look at only the past three games, Mirotic would have 100% there as well.
There is simply no reason to avoid Mirotic tonight, and I will have him in 100% of my cash game lineups, and likely 100% of my GPP lineups as well.
Center: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz, $7500
Gobert’s price is on the rise, so target him before he becomes fairly valued. He’s still too cheap at $7500 in my opinion, especially given he draws a fantastic matchup with the Sixers, a team that can’t rebound and gives up more fantasy points to the center position than any team in the league. They also give up more blocked shots than any team in the league, and Gobert happens to excel at blocking shots.
Over the past week, spanning four contests, Gobert has reached at least 4x value 100% of the time, and 5x value 50% of the time. He also missed a 6x value night against Memphis by 0.2. Given how good of a matchup he has against the Sixers, it’s reasonable to expect him to reach, or even exceed his upper range of production. The Jazz will be playing well up in pace, meaning Gobert should see plenty of extra rebounding and shot-blocking opportunities. He’s a safe of a play as you’re going to find at the center position tonight, and I’ll have locked into my cash game and many GPP lineups tonight.