Starting 5: Ceiling and Consistency (GPP Edition) - Friday, February 6th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Ceiling and Consistency tool. I’m going to focus on GPP plays on FanDuel, using the tool to identify players that are in a good position to produce 5-6x value, or even higher tonight. These plays won’t necessarily be safe for cash game use, and the tool will also indicate that by displaying low percentages for 3-4x value, but if you’re looking to take down a big score tonight, these players should be on your radar.
Point Guard: DJ Augustin, Detroit Pistons, $7,200
Looking at the last three weeks for Augustin, we don’t get quite an accurate representation of what’s going on. He’s scored the following totals as a starter: 49.8, 36.3, 10.2, 47.4, 51.3, 20.4. So, he’s reached 5x four of six times, 6x three of six times, but failed to reach 3x twice, with one of those being against the pitiful Sixers. He’s still DJ Augustin, and I find it very hard to believe he’s going to keep putting up ridiculous fantasy totals on a regular basis, but for now, the upside is just too high to ignore. Working in his favor is a plus matchup against a fast-paced Nuggets team that is playing awful basketball right now. I think Augustin is much more likely to boom than bust tonight, and I would make him a core play in GPP lineups tonight.
Shooting Guard: Evan Fournier, Orlando Magic, $3,800
I like this pick a lot more if Fournier is starting. It remains to be seen what the interim coach in Orlando will do, but considering he probably wants a crack at getting the gig full-time, it’s likely he’ll be trying to win against the woeful Lakers. The starting lineup that makes sense is Payton, Oladipo, Fournier, Harris, and Vucevic, but who knows if that will actually happen. Regardless, Fournier has eclipsed 6× 40% of the time in the last three weeks, and certainly deserves consideration for your GPP lineups. He’s great salary relief at shooting guard, which is a position I often don’t like paying up for. The big money is made at the point guard and center positions, and I’d much rather pay up there.
Editor’s Note: Evan Fournier is not starting for the Magic tonight. Channing Frye takes his place in the starting lineup.
Small Forward: Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz, $8,100
If you take a look at the tool and sort by 6x in descending order, you’ll see a bunch of guys that either aren’t playing, or are just no fun to roster. Guys like PJ Tucker and Kyle Singler and score a lot relative to their cheap price tags, but those big games just don’t happen enough to bother with. In the past three weeks, Hayward has hit 6x once in 10 games, which is very impressive for an $8,100 player. He’s also only reached 4x six times in ten games, which helps illustrate the inconsistency that comes with being high-priced player on a bad, slow-paced team. The Jazz will be playing way up in pace against Phoenix, and if Utah can stay close, a 45-50 point night is certainly in play for Hayward. Avoid him in cash games, but his ability to be the top scoring small forward will put him in several of my GPP lineups tonight.
Power Forward: Jared Sullinger, Boston Celtics, $6,600
Sullinger’s numbers are a bit misleading as he’s played less minutes due to being late to shootaround twice. For $6,600, he has significant upside in a great matchup against the Sixers. Philly can’t rebound or defend opposing frontcourts, putting Sullinger in a perfect position to realize the upside that the tool is showing he has. He does come with some risk, as a relative low percentage of 4x performances and his recent inability to get where he needs to be on time do raise some red flags for cash game use. He’s a GPP only play for me, but I will have plenty of exposure to him in my lineups tonight.
Center: Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers, $6,100
Let’s be honest. Nobody wants to roster Roy Hibbert. He’s a shell of his former self, he disappears quite often, and his minutes have been down. Despite all of that, he’s still managed to reach 5× 30% of the time in the last three weeks, while also hitting 6x or higher 20% of the time. Now consider the fact that both Lavoy Allen and Ian Mahinmi have already been ruled out, and you can eliminate the minutes as being a factor in keeping his production down. Cleveland is only a 6-point favorite, though we saw what happened last night when they were 5-point favorites over the Clippers, so take the Vegas line with a grain of salt. If the Pacers can keep this game close, you can expect Hibbert to play a ton of minutes, with the possibility of posting a very big line. The Cavs have been much better defensively lately, and is a big reason why they continue to win games, but they’re still near the bottom of the league against opposing centers. If the Pacers are going to keep this one close, it’s going to require a strong effort from Hibbert, a player that is more than capable of posting an elite stat line for a cheap price tag.