Starting 5: DvP - Friday, January 30th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the DvP tool.
DvP is always going to be the first place I go when I start researching which players I want in my lineups on a particular evening. It’s certainly not the only tool I use, and you shouldn’t simply plug players in because the numbers say they have a great matchup. You have to take all things into consideration, but DvP is a great place to start to narrow the player pool down to players you’ll want to take a closer look at, while also giving you enough information to safely ignore borderline players that will likely have difficult matchups.
Let’s take a closer look at five players I think are very safe options tonight based on DvP and other factors, using FanDuel pricing.
Point Guard – Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers, $9500
The Kings have been bad against opposing point guards all season, and this is setting up perfectly for Irving to have another big game tonight. LeBron James is doubtful, and when he sits out, it’s the Kyrie Irving show in Cleveland. He’s an incredible offensive talent, and the Kings have no answer for him. We saw what happened last game when Irving faced a team that can’t handle opposing point guards, and while I’m not expecting him to score 55 real points again, he’s certainly worth his $9,500 FanDuel price tag.
So is Irving too good of a play? Is he worthy of a fade? Against a team with an elite point guard defender, like the Rockets or Bucks, Irving could reasonably be expected to have a good, but not great game. In that scenario, the chance of him paying off his high price tag is lowered, and makes cheaper plays like Mario Chalmers or Jarrett Jack a bit more appealing. But against the Kings, we’ve used DvP to justify what we already assumed – Kyrie Irving is one of the top overall plays today.
Shooting Guard – DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors, $6800
DeRozan looks much more comfortable now that he has a few games under his belt after returning from an extended absence. For me, he’s underpriced at $6800 and I’m going to continue targeting him in favorable matchups as long as he remains at this depressed price. Looking at the above season-long DvP chart for shooting guards, we can see that DeRozan draws a favorable matchup against the Brooklyn Nets tonight. The Nets have been the seventh-worst team against opposing shooting guards this season, and if you flip to the last three weeks, they’re slightly worse.
DeRozan is a lock to play 30+ minutes tonight, and I believe has a floor of around 30 with upside over 40. The combination of price, floor and ceiling, and a very favorable DvP matchup make DeRozan my top price-depending shooting guard option, and one of the primary players you should be targeting in both cash games and GPPs tonight.
Small Forward – Rudy Gay, Sacramento Kings, $7800
Interestingly, the Cavs have been awful against opposing small forwards all season. If you use the tool to check out the last three weeks, they’re second-worst over that time frame as well. With the expectation that LeBron James is going to sit out again tonight, the Cavs defense is only get to worse. Gay is already an extremely attractive option when you consider the DvP and the Cavs losing one of their better defenders. If DeMarcus Cousins is forced to sit out, he’s going to be a must-play option at a thin small forward position.
His usage rate would skyrocket with Cousins out of the lineup, and when you combine an expected boost in production due to opportunity with nearly the best DvP matchup you can ask for, you’re looking at an elite play at an extremely affordable price tag. Also consider the opportunity cost of fading Rudy Gay tonight. Without him, you’re forced to choose two of the remaining small forwards, and that’s a daunting task in and of itself.
Power Forward – Thaddeus Young, Minnesota Timberwolves, $6800
Young is listed as a power forward on FanDuel, but the return of Nikola Pekovic to the starting lineup has caused him to shift over to small forward. He’ll likely see minutes at power forward as well when he’s on the court with just Pekovic or Dieng, so I included both small forward and power forward DvP charts. Small forward is on top, power forward is below that.
As you can see, regardless of where he plays, Young is in a very good position to produce. The Sixers are seventh-worst against opposing small forwards this season, while also being bottom of the barrel against opposing power forwards. A quick look at Young’s game log shows that his production is on the rise, and there are two reasons for that. The Timberwolves are doing a better job of running the offense through him, and he’s also played 40 or more minutes in his past three games. There are few better situations in daily fantasy NBA than rostering a very affordable player that should see 40 or more minutes and a ton of shot attempts against the Sixers.
Center – Gorgui Dieng, Minnesota Timberwolves, $7100
In what should be no surprise to anyone, the Sixers are also league-worst against opposing centers. That tends to happen when you’re sporting the worst rebounding rate in the NBA. Dieng has been starting at power forward lately for the Timberwolves, but should see time at center as well. it doesn’t really matter, though. The Sixers are league-worst against both positions, and Dieng should have field day on the glass, while also blocking a few shots. At $7100, he’s a very safe play with high upside tonight. His minutes haven’t been affected by either the return of Nikola Pekovic or Kevin Martin, and given you couldn’t ask for a better DvP matchup, he’s hands down yy top center play of the evening.