Starting 5: DvP - Monday, February 23rd
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Defense vs Position tool. DvP is one of the most important tools available when considering players to target on a particular night.
Coming into the second half of the season, we have plenty of data to support the rankings. However, it’s always important to remember that you can’t blindly use a player just because the team he’s facing is weak against his position. Use the other tools available at RotoGrinders, such as the advanced stats, to make sure you’re rostering a player that makes meaningful contributions to his team, and is thus in a good position to actually take advantage of the strong matchup.
Point Guard: Deron Williams @ Denver Nuggets (9 PM EST)
Last 3 Weeks PG DvP
The Floor General for tonight’s Starting 5 is Nets PG Deron Williams. A forgotten man for most of the season, Williams found himself starting against the Lakers last Friday thanks to Jarrett Jack’s injury, and did not disappoint with 44.5 DK points. Although the outburst came against the helpless Lakers defense, it also included an impressive 15 assists.
Only two teams have allowed more assists to opposing PGs over the Last 3 Weeks, and Williams’ opponent tonight is one of them. The Nuggets not only allow the most assists per game to opposing PGs over that span – they allow the most FPPG over that span as well (most recently getting blasted for 21-8-17 by Russell Westbrook last night). With Jarrett Jack already ruled out of tonight’s game, expect Williams to again run the point and feast.
Shooting Guard: Avery Bradley vs Phoenix Suns (9 PM EST)
Last 3 Weeks SG DvP
There are several strong DVP matchups at SG tonight, but Avery Bradley has some situational factors working for him which make him an even more attractive play than the DVP suggests. Despite all the roster flux in Boston right now with trades and injuries, Bradley seems to have been one of the team’s biggest beneficiaries. With the injury to Jared Sullinger, Bradley has become the team’s primary scorer, averaging more than 20 shots per game since the ASB and scoring 20+ points in each of those games.
Even as Isaiah Thomas gets up to speed, expect Bradley to shoulder significant offensive responsibility for the Celtics. Bradley’s new workload should play well in tonight’s matchup with a Suns team that ranks second in pace, and has allowed the 3rd-most FPPG to opposing SGs over the Last 3 Weeks.
Small Forward: Value Play Roulette
Season SF DvP
Let’s face it: SF is usually pretty ugly if you aren’t paying up for one of the hyper-elite players. The alternative, then, is to search for value and mid-range options. Taking a look at the DVP Tool through a seasonal lens, a few options pop up tonight:
HOU SF Trevor Ariza (vs Minnesota Timberwolves): Ariza draws tonight’s most favorable matchup based on seasonal DVP, but the move of Andrew Wiggins to SF could mean that ranking dips going forward. Regardless, this game checks in as one of the highest totals of the night, and you’ll want to have exposure to it in some form.
MIA SF Luol Deng (vs Philadelphia 76ers): Targeting a helpless Sixers squad is a viable strategy at almost any position, and SF is no different. They’re allowing the 5th-most FPPG to opposing SFs this season. We have yet to see just how Deng’s role will change considering the loss of Chris Bosh & arrival of Goran Dragic, but he’s sure to see heavy minutes and is capable of contributing fantasy points in multiple categories.
Power Forward: Zach Randolph @ LA Clippers (10:30 PM EST)
Last 3 Weeks PF DvP
ZBO faces the Blake Griffin-less Clippers tonight, which should be a boost to what has been an already favorable matchup for opposing PFs. The Clippers allow the 5th-most FPPG to opposing FPs over the Last 3 Weeks, and will have no answer for ZBOs low-post stylings. He should be fed early and often to exploit Blake’s absence on the interior.
Center: Alex Len vs Boston Celtics (9:00 PM EST)
Season C DvP
Last 3 Weeks C DvP
Alex Len rounds out the Starting 5 today thanks to a tasty matchup with the depleted and generally wimpy frontcourt of the Boston Celtics. The Celtics have been a target of ours with opposing bigs all season (7th-most FPPG allowed to Cs on the season / 5th-most FPPG allowed to Cs over the Last 3 Weeks), and with the news that Jared Sullinger is out for the season, the C’s are awfully thin on the interior. They essentially are down to just Brandon Bass and Tyler Zeller – neither of whom are stalwarts inside – who are also coming off an OT loss last night in which they played a combined 76 minutes.
Alex Len should benefit from their fatigue on both the offensive and defensive end. Len has seen a surge in minutes following the trade of Miles Plumlee (34 & 35 minutes in 2 games since ASB), and has parlayed the extra playing time into extra production — amassing double-digit rebounds in each of his last two games, as well as a whopping 7 blocks between them. With a very modest price across the industry, Len is a strong value this evening.