Starting 5: DvP - Monday, February 2nd
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Defense vs Position tool. DvP is one of the most important tools available when considering players to target on a particular night.
As we near the halfway point of the season, we have plenty of data to support the rankings. However, it’s always important to remember that you can’t blindly use a player just because the team he’s facing is weak against his position. Use the other tools available at RotoGrinders, such as the advanced stats, to make sure you’re rostering a player that makes meaningful contributions to his team, and is thus in a good position to actually take advantage of the strong matchup.
Editor’s Note: Brandon Knight (quad) has been ruled out for tonight.
Point Guard: Brandon Knight @ Toronto Raptors (7:30 PM EST)
Last 3 Weeks PG DvP
The Raptors are one of the sneakier teams to target with opposing PGs, as their modest bottom-12 seasonal DVP vs PGs is sometimes overlooked in favor of stronger matchups. But the Raptors seasonal numbers vs PGs don’t tell the whole story here.
When we instead examine the Last 3 Weeks in the DVP Tool, we see the Raptors jump to allowing the 2nd-most FPPG to PGs over that span. This is a trend we’ve been attacking for several weeks already, as Raptors PG Kyle Lowry and Co have repeatedly allowed performances well beyond their seasonal averages. Knight himself is an example of the Raptors PG generosity: he racked up 20-5-5 and a whopping 4 steals against the Raptors back on January 19. Knight’s price has begun to dip a bit following a lull in his scoring of late, but he’s already shown he’s capable of providing 40+ FPTs in this matchup.
Shooting Guard: Monta Ellis vs Minnesota Timberwolves (8:30 PM EST)
Season SG DvP
Last 3 Weeks SG DvP
Ellis checks in as one of the top plays of the night considering both his matchup and the effect of the recent injury to teammate Rajon Rondo, who has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. Rondo’s injury should push more offensive responsibilities onto Ellis, who cranked out 25 points and 13 assists without Rondo on Saturday.
Ellis is no stranger to having the ball in his hands and running the offense, and should have little trouble dissecting a Timberwolves squad that is bottom-10 in DVP to both SGs and PGs (assuming Ellis will also run some point) this season. Minnesota expects to get Ricky Rubio back at PG tonight, but both he and starting SG Kevin Martin are coming off recent injuries, and Martin is a frequent target in DFS thanks to his lackluster defense.
Small Forward: Kevin Durant vs Orlando Magic (8:00 PM EST)
Editor’s Note: Kevin Durant (toe) has been ruled out for tonight.
Season SF DvP
Last 3 Weeks SF DvP
Anybody who played NBA DFS last season knows that the flowchart for deciding whether or not to play Kevin Durant on any given night only has one step:
Is Kevin Durant playing today?
If Yes: Roster Kevin Durant
However, the combination of Durant’s recent injury, as well as having two sub-35 fantasy point outings in his last 3 games, might scare some off him tonight. Don’t be that guy. The Magic are a perfect bounceback matchup for KD, as they’ve allowed the 4th-most FPPG to opposing SFs on the season and the MOST over the Last 3 Weeks.
That NBA-worst mark over the Last 3 Weeks was helped by a prior performance from Durant himself, who stuffed the stat sheet with 21-11-8 on an uber-efficient 7-for-10 shooting against the Magic back on January 18th. That was good for 50.75 DK points in just 28 minutes. Expect more run and more shots from KD tonight.
Power Forward: Blake Griffin @ Brooklyn Nets (7:30 PM EST)
Season PF DvP
Last 3 Weeks PF DvP
Blake is coming off a 31-point, 13-rebound performance on Saturday and now draws one of this slate’s most generous matchups to PFs.
The Nets are allowing the 5th-most FPPG to opposing PFs over the Last 3 Weeks, which includes allowing the MOST real points per game to the position over that span. Griffin put up 24 real points on 11 for 14 shooting against this team in just 25 minutes back on January 22, and should again be an offensive force against them tonight.
Center: Timofey Mozgov vs Philadelphia 76ers (7:00 PM EST)
Season C DvP
Last 3 Weeks C DvP
The picks can’t all be sexy, folks. Tina Fey Mozgov rounds out our Starting 5 today thanks to a matchup with everyone’s favorite punching bag, the Philadelphia 76ers. Philly has been the most generous team to opposing Centers over the course of the season, and the 2nd-most favorable when we examine the Last 3 Weeks. Digging into the DVP further we see that the 76ers allow both the 2nd-most rebounds and 3rd-most blocks to opposing Centers, both of which play into Mozgov’s skillset.
Discarding his previous two games where he was limited due to foul trouble, Moz has 10+ rebounds in 4 of his last 6 games and at least 1 block in each. Against the wimpy Sixers, Moz should easily produce another double-double, and always has multi-block upside as the Cavs’ lone true rim protector.