Starting 5: DvP - Monday, February 9th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
One of my favorite RotoGrinders analytics to use is the Defense vs Position tool. For the purposes of this article, we will utilize the FanDuel scoring setting.
In particular, I like toggle the filter between the full season and the last three weeks. Generally the last three weeks filter will capture the last 9 to 12 games that a team has played. This is normally a large enough sample size to help identify current developing trends, such as a change in style of play (Orlando Magic), trades (Boston) and injuries (Charlotte).
Point Guard: Mo Williams/Ricky Rubio (MIN) vs. Atlanta
Despite being solid defensively across the board this season, the Hawks have been vulnerable to opposing point guards, allowing the 10th-most points on the season and the most points over the last three weeks.
This tidbit of information will remind me to monitor the news tonight for both Ricky Rubio and Mo Williams, as whomever is starting actually has a nice matchup and will likely have relatively low ownership levels in tournaments. Sometimes what appears to be “out-of-the-box” thinking on the surface really does have a deeper analytically-developed trigger.
Shooting Guard: Monta Ellis (DAL) vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Over the last couple seasons, the Clippers have had their troubles against opposing swingmen, and that still holds true this year. Over the last three weeks, they have slipped into the bottom five teams for fantasy points allowed to shooting guards.
With Rajon Rondo out, we have all been expecting Monta Ellis to see a major bump in his production. In his last two games, he has had 41.8 FanDuel points (vs POR) and 35.4 FanDuel points (at SAC). It seems very reasonable to project him somewhere between those two figures tonight against the Clippers.
Small Forward: Chandler Parsons (DAL) vs. Los Angeles Clippers
As mentioned above, this is another position that the Clippers have had trouble defending, having allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards over the last three weeks.
With Blake Griffin out, there will be even less help defense in the paint which bodes well for Chandler Parsons. Like his teammate Monta Ellis, he is coming off an excellent outing against Portland (42.8 fantasy points), and he is averaging just under 33 FanDuel points over his last four games.
At this price point and potential, I like Parsons for both tournaments and cash games.
Power Forward: Kris Humphries and Kevin Seraphin (WAS) vs. Orlando
Yes, we all know to target bigs against the Magic, but this recommendation is going to go a little deeper, with two of the Wizards’ key reserve players. Whenever possible, Washington tries to keep Nene Hilario to under 25 minutes per game, replacing him with the former Mr Kim Kardashian, and Marcin Gortat usually cedes his spot in the fourth quarter to Kevin Seraphin.
If the Wizards can get out to a comfortable lead, they will have no problem giving extra minutes to Humphries and Seraphin, while they keep their staring big men refreshed for Wednesday’s important game in Toronto. At their current prices, both are fine discount options to be used in tournaments tonight.
Center: Brook Lopez (BKN) at Milwaukee
With all of their recent injuries and suspensions, the Bucks have slipped into the bottom third of the league against centers over the last three weeks. Brook Lopez has been in a groove, putting up 30+ fantasy points in five of his last six games.
Even with Mason Plumlee and Kevin Garnett in the mix, he will have plenty of opportunity for a big game tonight against the depleted Bucks.