Starting 5 [DVP]: Monday, January 12th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Defense vs Position (DVP) tool. We can use DVP to determine which teams are weakest against individual positions, or allow the most of any particular statistic, and then target players against them.
Point Guard: Brandon Jennings
Aaron Brooks would have been an excellent plug-and-play value selection against Orlando’s shaky backcourt, but it looks like Derrick Rose will give it a go tonight. The top two remaining options play in the same game tonight, as Detroit’s Brandon Jennings takes on Toronto’s Kyle Lowry. And prior to this season, never in a million years would I have believed that it was Jennings’ squad that has been stingier against opposing point guards. Yes, it’s actually Lowry and the Raptors who present the most favorable PG DVP of the night. On the season, the Raptors allow the 4th-most FPPG to opposing PGs, just trailing the Magic, who allow the 3rd-most FPPG and also play tonight. But the Raptors also allow the MOST FPPG over the Last 3 Weeks. Enter Jennings, who’s averaging 20.8 points and 7.0 assists per game so far in January. He’s also already shown success against Lowry before, dropping 22 points, eight assists and four boards in 31 minutes when he squared off against the Raptors earlier this season. Jennings is always a risk when his shot isn’t falling, but considering the Raptors have allowed more real points to PGs than any other team over the last 3 weeks, I like his chances tonight.
Shooting Guard: Sweet Lou Williams
Shooting guard isn’t great tonight from the lens of seasonal DVP, with Detroit popping up as our first target. That’s awfully convenient tonight considering they play Toronto and their sneaky scoring SG, Lou Williams.
Williams is modestly priced across the industry, and has at least 26.25 DK points in each of his last 4 games. His MO lately has been 10-15 shots and ~7 FTAs per game, which gives him a great shot of giving you 15+ real points each night based on his current minutes. Keep in mind also that the Pistons rotation has shifted a bit lately with the Josh Smith release, and the return of Jodie Meeks from injury. They might not have their wing defense solved yet, as over the last 4 games they’ve allowed the 5th-most FPPG and 3rd-most 3PM per game.
Small Forward: Trevor Ariza
Four of the eight teams playing tonight are in the bottom-10 vs SFs, so there are a few different ways we can attack the position tonight. One of the top options is Rockets SF Trevor Ariza, who couples his top-10 matchup with a very modest price across the industry. If we examine a more recent sample, the Nets jump all the way to 4th vs SFs over the Last 3 Weeks, which includes allowing 2.0 3PM, 5th-worst in the NBA. That plays directly to Ariza’s game, as the SF has launched 21 3’s over his past 3 games. Lock him in on sites that score 3PMs.
Power Forward: Anthony Davis
Welcome to your Monday Top Play. Only one team pops up in the DVP tool vs PFs for the Season AND Last 3 Weeks AND Last Week – it’s the Celtics, and they have the misfortune of facing the Brow tonight. With only 20+ points and 10+ boards in 6 of his last 8 games, Davis finally exploded for 32 points and 12 rebounds against the Hornets last Wednesday. He should feast on this generous and wimpy Celtics frontcourt.
One extra tidbit: the Celtics are allowing the 3rd-most blocks per game to PFs on the season, and 3.0 over their last 4 games. Brow’s trademark explosive games always come with a handful of blocks, and the Celtics offer sneaky upside in that regard.
Center: Nikola Vucevic
Nicola Vucevic is our top Center play of the evening. The first reason: the matchup (this is a matchup article after all).. Despite the presence of former All-NBA defender Joakim Noah, the Bulls allow the 2nd-most FPPG to opposing centers. The Bulls also allow the 2nd-most rebounds per game to opposing centers, a weakness which should be exploited by Vuc, who already averages 11.1 rebounds per game and has at least 10 in each of his last 4 games.
The second reason: the monstrous 34-point, 16-rebound game he dropped on Portland on Saturday. What interested me most with that beasting wasn’t so much the 34 & 16, but the whopping 23 shots that Vuc took. The extra shots came as a result of Tobias Harris and Evan Fournier being out – and reports suggest the duo is again ‘unlikely’ to play tonight. That means more shots and offensive responsibility for Vuc (whose Usage Rate jumps to 26.9 w/o Harris and Fournier), against an already generous Bulls interior.