Starting 5: DvP - Monday, January 19th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Defense vs Position tool. DvP is one of the most important tools available when considering players to target on a particular night.
As we near the halfway point of the season, we have plenty of data to support the rankings. However, it’s always important to remember that you can’t blindly use a player just because the team he’s facing is weak against his position. Use the other tools available at RotoGrinders, such as the advanced stats, to make sure you’re rostering a player that makes meaningful contributions to his team, and is thus in a good position to actually take advantage of the strong matchup.
Point Guard: Brandon Knight vs Toronto Raptors (8:00 PM EST)
Last 3 Weeks PG DvP
If you’re worried about blowout risks for some of the stud PGs tonight (John Wall vs the 76ers, for example), there are a few other strong matchups we can target instead. One such matchup is Brandon Knight vs the Raptors, in a game where Toronto is only favored by 1.
We’ve attacked the Raptors before in this space, as they’ve been giving up some massive games to opposing PGs of late – examining the Last 3 Weeks tab of the DVP tool shows us that the Raptors have allowed the 3rd-most FPPG to PGs over that stretch. That bodes well for an aggressive, attacking PG like Brandon Knight, who has at least 20-5-5 in his last two games.
Shooting Guard: Brad Beal vs Philadelphia 76ers (2:00 PM EST)
Season SG DvP
Last 3 Weeks SG DvP
I prefer Beal’s matchup to teammate John Wall’s this afternoon. On the season the 76ers are allowing the most FPPG to opposing SGs, as well as the 5th-most over the Last 3 Weeks; they’ve been consistently generous to SGs.
I also think the 76ers complete inability to defend 3-point shooters – they’ve allowed the 2nd-most 3PM to SGs on the season and the most 3PM to SGs over the Last 3 Weeks – makes Beal even more enticing tonight. Beal is a deadly shooter, and will even spot up on the perimeter when John Wall is running the fast break. Those opportunities should be prevalent against the 76ers, and when Beal gets going he can easily hit multiple triples in a game. He’s a strong mid-range option at SG tonight.
If you’re especially worried about the blowout with Beal, or simply wish to save a little extra salary, you could also target a guy like Gerald Henderson vs the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Small Forward: Matt Barnes vs Boston Celtics (3:30 PM EST)
Season SF DvP
Last 3 Weeks SF DvP
Barnes is the cringe-worthy-SF-pick-of-the-day. Look, SF is pretty gross from a DVP standpoint tonight. When that’s the case, we can usually target complementary players who should see increased production thanks to a strong matchup.
Tonight’s example is Barnes, who has actually been sneakily effective of late, included a 26-point, 10-rebound outburst vs the Kings on Saturday. We aren’t expecting Barnes to take 15 shots again here, but he should see plenty of run (30+ minutes each of last 6 games) against a Celtics squad that has been Bottom-10 against the SF position both on the Season and over the Last 3 Weeks.
Power Forward: Jared Sullinger @ LA Clippers (3:30 PM EST)
Season PF DvP
Sullinger makes the cut at PF today based on the Clippers’ recent struggles against the PF position. If we examine the Last 3 Weeks tab at PF, we see the Clippers are allowing the 4th-most FPPG to the position. And importantly for Sullinger, they’re also allowing the most real points per game – and nearly 2.5 more real points than the 2nd-worst team.
Blake Griffin simply isn’t a great defender, and for all his accolades, DeAndre Jordan isn’t nearly the rim protector you would assume he is either. This all benefits Sullinger, who has 20 or more real points in 2 of his last 3 games, and at least 17 shots in both of those games. He should be able to rack up shots and points banging against Blake Griffin inside.
Center: Alex Len vs LA Lakers (10:00 PM EST)
Season C DvP
Last 3 Weeks C DvP
Len draws another elite matchup this week against a Lakers squad that is Bottom-3 against the Center position on the season. If we unpack why LA has been so favorable to opposing centers, we find that they have been allowing the most rebounds per game to the position, and nearly a half rebound per game more than the 2nd-worst team.
The Lakers rebounding struggles favor Len’s skillset, as the lumbering big man has double-digit boards in each of his last 4 games. Thanks in large part to his immense rebounding, Len has averaged more than a fantasy point per minute over his last 6 games. With a price tag that remains modest throughout the industry, and an elite matchup on deck, Len is a strong value that allows you to pay up for studs at other positions.