Starting 5: DVP - Tuesday, January 27th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Defense vs Position tool. DVP is one of the most important tools available when considering players to target on a particular night.
As we near the halfway point of the season, we have plenty of data to support the rankings. However, it’s always important to remember that you can’t blindly use a player just because the team he’s facing is weak against his position. Use the other tools available at RotoGrinders, such as the advanced stats, to make sure you’re rostering a player that makes meaningful contributions to his team, and is thus in a good position to actually take advantage of the strong matchup.
Today, we’ll focus on DraftKings pricing and statistics.
Point Guard: John Wall (WAS)
Editor’s Note: John Wall (Achilles) is considered questionable for tonight’s game.
To no one’s surprise, John Wall checks in at the very top of the list, as the Lakers’ “defense” has been shredded all year long by opposing PGs. Wall should have his way with rookie Jordan Clarkson as well as either Jeremy Lin or Ronnie Price off the bench. Wall took advantage of this matchup earlier in the year, as he accounted for 17 points, 4 rebounds and 16 assists en route to 48 DK points despite only shooting 6-of-18 from the field.
Also, Vegas expects this game to stay within striking distance, with the Wizards are only favored by eight, so Wall should get four quarters of playing time. The one worry with the Wizards tonight is that it is their third game in four nights, so tired legs could be an issue. However, I’d be more leery of the older players like Nene and Paul Pierce in this situation, as opposed to a young fella like John Wall.
Shooting Guard: DeMar DeRozan (TOR)
DeMar DeRozan checks in high on the list since the Pacers have really struggled to contain opposing shooting guards this year. CJ Miles, who might not play, and Rodney Stuckey aren’t players to fear defensively, and DeRozan is sitting at a very low price point. DeRozan had been in a terrible shooting slump, as he was 6-of-34, but he finally broke out of it last game by going 8-of-14 from the field. He produced 43 DK points. Due to his shooting slump, his price is still low at $6,500, so this is a great buy-low opportunity in a nice matchup.
One value play to fill out your rosters looks to be Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Cleveland has not defended SGs well all year, and the recently acquired J.R. Smith won’t change that. KCP will step into a much bigger role with Brandon Jennings out for the year. In the first game without Jennings, he played a monstrous 42 minutes and attempted 17 shots. His peripherals leave a lot to be desired, but due to his minutes volume, he was able to grab a few rebounds, assists and steals to produce 26 DK points, which pays off his $4,100 salary. Jennings also missed three games earlier this year and Kentavious played at least 35 minutes in two of those three games. KCP also slides over to the SF to play alongside Jodie Meeks, and as you’ll see in the SF DVP, Cleveland has not defended SFs well either.
Small Forward: LeBron James (CLE)
Cleveland is last in DVP against SFs, however, Kyle Singler doesn’t play heavy minutes or get much usage, so he’s not on my fantasy radar. However, this DVP rank does lend more credence to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as a value play at shooting guard, as he also gets minutes at small forward for Detroit. Luol Deng checks in high on the list, however, he’s currently listed as doubtful and the Milwaukee and Miami game will be played at an incredibly slow place, complete with a really low Vegas total of 183.
The guy I have my eye on is LeBron James, as the Pistons are 23rd in DVP against SFs. Only one fantasy point separates Cleveland, who is last in DVP, and Detroit, who is 23rd, so there actually isn’t much difference, and this is a great matchup for LeBron against Singler. He has put the Cavs on his back – they are now rolling with six straight wins. LBJ has topped 50 DK points in six of his last seven games, and he is a great building block in tonight’s slate of games.
Power Forward: Zach Randolph (MEM)
Based on the season DVP, Kevin Love would be the top target. However, he is expensive and I prefer to use him when Kyrie and/or LeBron are out. There’s not much else that pops out at PF, so let’s look at DVP over the last three weeks instead.
Dallas has fallen to 29th in DVP against PFs, and Zach Randolph is red hot. Tyson Chandler is banged up and Dirk Nowitzki was never a great defender even in his younger years. Dallas lacks depth on the interior due to the Rajon Rondo trade and it looks like both Chandler and Dirk could use the All-Star break to get some rest.
This looks like a nice spot for Randolph to keep on rolling. He’s the cheapest top-end PF and has been consistently scoring at least 40 DK points over his last eight games. In two matchups with Dallas this year, he has averaged 39 DK points.
Center: Marcin Gortat (WAS)
Marcin Gortat draws the weak interior Lakers’ defense that is 26th in DVP against centers, and he is the cheapest he has been all year. His minutes and production have been sporadic, but this presents a possible buy-low opportunity in a prime matchup. I do have some concern that the Wizards could use their bench a little more tonight due to the fact that it is their third game in four nights. However, the risk is somewhat built into Gortat’s price, as he is only 5.5K. In the earlier matchup with the Lakers, he had 21 points and 11 rebounds for a total of 41 DK points.
Another option outside of Gortat is Timofey Mozgov. He can be very hit or miss, either putting up 15 DK points or 40 DK points. However, he draws a very nice matchup with the Pistons, who have coughed up some really big games to opposing centers and are 24th in DVP against the position. His minutes should be more secure tonight, since the Cavs will need his size to try to contain Andre Drummond. He is a nice GPP option, as he has 37 or more DK points in two of his last four games, which more than pays off his $5,100 salary.