Starting 5: Market Watch - Wednesday, January 21st
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the NBA Market Watch tool. We can use this tool as a starting point to see where player prices are trending across the various major sites. It’s an easy way to identify some players who might be under-priced or over-priced.
Since we are looking for players to target in this piece, let’s check out some potentially under-priced players who have seen their prices drop over the last week.
Point Guard – Brandon Jennings (-$713.33 Average Price Differential from last week)
One of the nice things about the market watch tool is that you can sort by “average” price differential, which averages out the changes amongst all the major sites into one overall column. The only downside of this is that it puts more weight on the sites that have more fluctuations in pricing and/or use a higher total salary cap (DraftDay, for example). However, it still gives a nice overall picture of the landscape.
You can see that Brandon Jennings has seen his price correct as he has come down from his impressive run of a few weeks ago. With the price now more player-friendly on every site, this could be the matchup Jennings needs to kick-start another hot streak. Orlando is not a good defensive team, so Jennings makes a nice GPP play on Wednesday.
Shooting Guard – DeMar DeRozan (-$673.30 Average Price Differential from last week)
Continuing the theme of looking at average price differential, I was surprised to see that DeMar DeRozan’s salary is still dropping. This is likely because some algorithms are thrown off by his string of zeroes, and he was initially somewhat limited in terms of minutes when he returned. He also struggled from the field in the last game, as he was 0-for-9 from the floor.
The price on DeRozan is now simply too generous on most of the major sites, and he should be in for a nice game against a Memphis team that struggles to defend opposing shooting guards.
Small Forward – Andrew Wiggins (-$750.00 DraftDay Price Differential from last week)
Should you not wish to sort by average price differential, you can sort by each individual site as well. There are some price differences that stand out on a few of the sites, and Wiggins’ discount on DraftDay is definitely at the top of that list. Although the return of Kevin Martin is a bit of a concern for Wiggins, there shouldn’t be much to fear. Flip Saunders has praised Wiggins to no end over the last few weeks, and it’s clear that the talented rookie will remain a big part of the offense. Tonight Minnesota will play Dallas in what should be a high-scoring game.
Take advantage of any site that allows you to now get Wiggins at a discount. This kid is going to be a joy to watch in the NBA for years to come, and something tells me that we will get some nice Wiggins vs. James and Wiggins vs. Durant matchups in the next two or three seasons.
Power Forward – Paul Millsap (-$200.00 DraftKings Price Differential from last week)
If you are looking for major price variations on DraftKings on Wednesday, you won’t find very many. The prices remain relatively stable over there, and this was shown on Monday when Derrick Rose was still $7,000 despite a string of 50+ point games.
One of the only changes that is worth noting is the $200 dip for Paul Millsap. He is a steady source of production and that should continue into the second half of the season. This isn’t the best matchup against the Pacers, but the price decrease is one of the only ones you will find on DraftKings.
Center – Nikola Vucevic (-$600.00 FanDuel Price Differential from last week)
FanDuel has some decent discounts this week, as there are quite a few players who are down $400-$700 in price. Most of the Orlando players are on that discount list, and Vucevic makes a great target at center here. He has put up some big games against Andre Drummond and the Pistons in the past, and the price has come down enough to put Vucevic in the conversation. He’s still a high-priced option, but at least he is more affordable now.
Vucevic will continue to be a big part of Orlando’s offense with Tobias Harris not 100%, so take advantage of the recent discounts on his price while you can.