Starting 5 - Player Stats: Thursday, April 2nd
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
This time of year can get pretty ugly in DFS NBA, so you really need to be on top of what teams are doing with their rotations. I like to target teams that are still fighting for playoff positioning. Players on these teams will usually be playing as many minutes as they can handle. So I like to use the Player Stats tool to see what the minutes situation looks like over the last three weeks.
Point Guard: Goran Dragic
The Heat are in a three-team battle for the 7th & 8th seeds in the East. The Cavs are heavy favorites tonight, but I expect the Heat starters to still give a good fight and play late into the fourth quarter. Dragic is averaging 36 minutes per game over the last three weeks, but that could get up into the 40 range if the Heat can keep it close tonight. I’ll take those minutes any day for a point guard priced at only $6,400.
Shooting Guard: James Harden
Harden was one of the many players that went nuts last night. He is the highest priced player tonight and he should be the highest owned player as well for good reason. You could take a stand and fade him, but I have a hard time believing that a winning lineup won’t have him on it tonight.
Small Forward: Trevor Ariza
Ariza has been on a tear recently and has been locked into heavy minutes. Over the last five games, Ariza has averages of 40 min, 17 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals while shooting 40% from three. He is also attempting a ridiculous amount of threes during that span, almost nine per game.
Ariza is almost a lock for 5x value tonight with a high probability to exceed that. The return of Jones and Howard might scare some people off of Ariza as well, so he could provide fairly low ownership for a player locked into heavy minutes and solid production.
Power Forward: Marcus Morris
I would be shocked if Brandon Knight played tonight, which means Marcus Morris is again locked into major minutes. The Suns aren’t mathematically eliminated from the playoffs just yet, so look for the starters to get their full allotment of minutes tonight. The matchup with the elite defense of the Warriors isn’t ideal, but it will be tough to avoid all of the Suns on a three-game slate. Marcus is still cheap enough at $5,800 that he could still produce a profitable stat line.
Center: Hassan Whiteside
Tyson Chandler is at the top of the minutes chart for centers tonight, but his upside is capped with all of the offensive weapons on the Mavs. So Hassan Whiteside will be my center of choice tonight. He has a much higher upside due to his shot blocking ability and he should be lowered owned due to his hand injury that didn’t seem to bother him too much last game. The Heat will need him to play 30 plus minutes tonight to keep it close, and he could easily be the top scoring center by double-digit points if that happens.
Hopefully this information helps you with your roster construction tonight and leads you to a nice score. As always feel free to leave a comment or reach out to me on Twitter, @Socky21.