Starting 5: Team Stats - Tuesday, February 3rd
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Team Stats tool with a focus on FanDuel numbers. We can use this tool to see how teams rank versus different positions per 48 minutes. I’ll be sorting stats by the last three weeks of the season.
Let’s take a look and see what players the tool points out as optimal plays on this somewhat short Tuesday slate.
Point Guards: Stephen Curry (GSW)
Let’s take a look at the team stats guarding points guards for both the season long and last three weeks:
Out of the teams playing today, Portland has allowed the most FD points to opposing PGs over the course of the season and also over the last three weeks. However, the Utah PG situation is iffy, as Dante Exum is starting but Trey Burke has been playing more minutes recently. Looking further down the list, the Sacramento Kings have allowed the sixth-most FD points to PGs on the season and the eighth-most over the past three weeks. It’s a short slate and the Sacramento/Golden State game has by far the highest total of the night at 218 points. Based on that, spending up for Stephen Curry is a great way to start your lineups today.
If you’re spending up for Curry, you might want some value at the other PG slot. Based on the charts, the New York Knicks have been worse against PGs than the Sacramento Kings. They have allowed the third-most points to the position over the last three weeks and the fifth most on the season. This shouldn’t be a surprise, as Jose Calderon is a really poor defender. You’ll have to monitor the news throughout the day, but Marcus Smart drew the start in the second half of the Celtics’ last game and produced 25 FD points. If he draws the start tonight, Smart makes for a great value play at only $4,600.
Shooting Guards: Klay Thompson (GSW) & Arron Afflalo (DEN)
Philadelphia has allowed the most FD points to opposing SGs over the course of the season, which should put Arron Afflalo on your radar. They have been better over the last three weeks, but SG is a very thin position and Afflalo is fairly cheap at $5,500, so he makes for a fine second SG. As far your first SG goes… fire up Klay to go with Steph and pair up the Splash Brothers on your rosters. Sacramento has allowed the second-most FD points allowed to the position on the season and also over the last three weeks. A big chunk of that damage has actually been done by… Klay Thompson! I’m sure you’ve all seen the highlights, but Klay Thompson just lit up this Sacramento team for 52 points, including a record 37 third quarter points, just five games ago.
One other area I like to use the team stat is to sort by categories to see how teams matchup with player’s strengths. For a guy like Klay Thompson, I’m interested in “3PM” :
As you can see, the Kings are not guarding the 3-point line well at all right now and are giving up the most made 3-pointers to opposing SGs over the last three weeks. It’s a short slate and the Warriors have the highest team total of the night, so it’s a great opportunity to get both Steph and Klay into your lineups.
Small Forward: Wilson Chandler (DEN) and Robert Covington (PHI)
Looking at the season long chart, the Pistons would be the team to pick on. However, Luol Deng is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. Moving further down the list, it looks like Wilson Chandler and Robert Covington make for nice mid-range plays. They square off against each other – the 76ers have allowed the seventh-most points to opposing SFs. Meanwhile the Nuggets have allowed the eighth-most points on the season, and have been especially bad over the past three weeks. Covington and Chandler are both guys who are not afraid to get their shots up, so they make for solid targets at a tough position to fill.
If you focus in on the last three weeks, you’ll see that the Trail Blazers have allowed the second-most points to the SF position. That is somewhat surprising, as Nicolas Batum has a reputation as a solid defender. He is banged up, and even missed one game, so that could be playing a part in those stats. Gordon Hayward has played really well since Dante Exum was inserted into the starting lineup, since he picks up more usage. He’s coming off a monster 56 FD points game so his price is high, but he makes for a nice GPP play, as most of the attention will be on Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Boogie Cousins.
Power Forward: Kenneth Faried (DEN)
While the 76ers have been better against PFs recently, they are still dead last on the season. Kenneth Faried is expected to return to the lineup tonight and his price has fallen to $6,400. At that price point, he makes for a great GPP play. With a guy like Faried, I am mainly concerned about points and rebounds, so let’s take a quick look at “reb” over the past three weeks.
Despite their recent improvement, the 76ers are giving up the most rebounds to opposings PFs, which sets up perfectly for a guy with Kenneth Faried’s skill set.
A few more guys that jump out from the above charts that you should keep an eye on are Luc Richard Mbah A Moute, Jason Smith, and Louis Amundson. Luc is listed as a SF on FD, but is starting at PF for the 76ers. He has been very solid over his last four games, and the Nuggets have given up the most points to opposing PFs over the last three weeks. He should draw consideration as a cheap small forward. The Celtics have allowed the second-most points to opposing PFs on the season and the sixth-most over the last three weeks, so take a look at Smith and Amundson, who are seeing a bump in minutes with Stoudemire out of the lineup.
Center: Hassan Whiteside (MIA)
There are several ways you can go at center tonight. Jusuf Nurkic and Nerlens Noel both draw great matchups according to the team charts, however, both are more GPP plays in my eyes, as Nurkic’s minutes are volatile and Noel is very inconsistent.
Looking at the above charts, the Pistons have allowed the sixth-most points to opposing centers on the season and the most over the last three weeks. Hassan Whiteside has been on an unbelievable tear and looks like he is in a great spot to keep it going tonight. His price has risen to 7K, but it hasn’t risen quite enough. At 7K, you want around 35 FD points, and he has topped 35 FD points in each of his past four games. Hassan isn’t a huge scorer, and is dependent on rebounds and blocks for his production, so let’s also look at “blk” and “reb”:
On the season, the Pistons allow the seventh-most blocks by centers and the seventh-most rebounds to centers, so this matchup suits Whiteside’s strengths.
Also, with all the attention and ownership that Hassan Whiteside has drawn and will likely draw, don’t forget about DeMarcus Cousins tonight. He’s playing heavy minutes and the Warriors have allowed the 17th-most points to opposing centers on the season. Andrew Bogut is a solid defender, but doesn’t play heavy minutes. Also, because Bogut is a quality defender. the Warriors don’t double the post as often and Boogie is practically matchup-proof at this point. Looking at the season long chart for actual points allowed to opposing centers, the Warriors surprisingly check in second:
In his last game against the Warriors, Boogie dropped 28 points and 11 rebounds. The spread for the Warriors and Kings is under 10, and if the Kings are going to keep it close then it will be on the back of Boogie.