Starting 5: Trending Stats Watch - Saturday, February 28th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Trending Stats Watch Tool, and take a look at some players who are playing more minutes in the past week than they usually do. Players who see a large uptick in minutes in a short timeframe are generally underpriced, and become great value plays if you expect the uptick in minutes to continue.
POINT GUARD – Reggie Jackson (DET)
Jackson is seeing a large boost in minutes due to his trade from the Thunder to the Pistons (7.45 min per game in the past week more than his season average), which has taken him from a backup to a starter. Point guards have been productive all season in Detroit, from Brandon Jennings, to D.J. Augustin, and now to Jackson, who has had some nice games since joining the Pistons.
He did let us down last night in a double overtime loss to the Knicks (I didn’t think it was possible to lose to the Knicks), but he should bounce back tonight against the Wizards, who are also on a back to back and just gave up a big performance to Ricky Rubio last night.
SHOOTING GUARD – Markel Brown (BKN)
Brown is playing a staggering 25.97 minutes per game more than his season average over the past week, and looks to be a part of the Nets rotation moving forward. He is an athletic youngster that provides plenty of energy, as well as some big upside with his ability to rack up blocks and steals. He has played 35, 30, and 45 minutes in his past three games, and I don’t see him playing less than 25-30 minutes a game moving forward, since he is playing well and looks to be part of the Nets future.
Also, don’t forget about Henry Walker, who isn’t showing up here yet because he hasn’t been in the league long enough – he is playing 30+ minutes a night for the Heat right now.
SMALL FORWARD – Richard Jefferson (DAL)
Jefferson is playing 14.28 minutes per game more than his season average over the past week, which is due to an injury to Chandler Parsons. He has been put into the starting lineup for the Mavs, and has played 31, 27, and 33 minutes in his past three games.
Jefferson doesn’t light the fantasy world on fire too often, but did have a 31 FPT outburst not too long ago. I’d expect him to play 25-32 minutes a night until Parsons returns, as the Mavs trust him in the starting lineup right now.
POWER FORWARD – Andrea Bargnani (NYK)
Bargnani must have found the fountain of youth recently, as he has been a much needed spark for the Knicks offense. He is playing 9.42 minutes per game more than his season average over the past week, and was just put into the starting lineup last night and exploded for 50+ FPTS in a double OT game.
I’d expect Bargnani to remain the starter tonight, and he has a revenge game against the Raptors on tap. The price is cheap, and it is hard to ignore him after three straight viable performances for a Knicks team starving for offense.
CENTER – Alex Len (PHO)
I could have put Whiteside or Gobert in here, but I’ll focus on Len, who is the cheapest of the three by far. The Suns sent Miles Plumlee to the Bucks at the trade deadline, which opened up 30+ minutes a night for Len as the center of the future for the Suns. He is playing 9.55 minutes per game more than his season average over the past week, and is likely to continue seeing big minutes.
Tonight Len gets a home matchup against the aging big men of the Spurs, who are on a back to back. This should limit the minutes of some of the Spurs starters and provide a nice matchup for Len, who should grab double digit rebounds, score 10-15 points, and block a few shots as well tonight.