Starting 5: Trending Stats Watch - Tuesday, February 10th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Trending Stats Watch. We can use this tool to determine which players are getting a recent boost in minutes and how well they are performing with that extra playing time. The boost in minutes is often tied closely to injuries, so it’s a tool that goes hand and hand with the RotoGrinders daily lineup alerts.
Today I’ll look at DraftKings pricing and will take a Beermakersfan’s “Happy Hour” approach by giving you some solid plays at under $5,800, which will leave you plenty of extra money to spend up at your remaining positions for the top plays of your choice.
Point Guard: Jordan Clarkson (LAL), $5,100
First, let’s look at the minutes over the past week:
Now let’s look at what they’ve done with those minutes:
Ty Lawson will be very popular tonight, so finding a cheaper PG to pair with him with be a popular strategy. Jordan Clarkson is seeing a sizable boost in minutes, as he has taken over the starting PG role, while Ramon Sessions and Brian Roberts are seeing an uptick due to injuries to Darren Collison and Kemba Walker.
All three are in play, but based on “FPTS”, as well as his matchup, Clarkson is my favorite of those three tonight. He’s averaging 26.50 DK points over the past week, which is 5x his salary, and 12 points above his season average. He has a terrific matchup with the fast-paced Denver Nuggets, who are 23rd in DVP against PGs over the last three weeks. Lastly, if you’re looking for a GPP pivot from Ty Lawson, then based on the above charts, DJ Augustin looks like a nice option too.
Shooting Guard: Gerald Henderson (CHA), $5,100
For shooting guards, let’s take a look at who has seen a recent boost in fantasy points per game:
With Kemba Walker out of the lineup, Gerald Henderson is getting more usage and has been incredibly productive. At 5.1K, he is just too cheap – he is averaging 37 DK points over the past week, which is just above 7x value. His numbers are up in all the main categories since Kemba’s injury: minutes, rebounds, assists and points.
Henderson should keep it going tonight against the Pistons, who are 22nd in DVP against SGs over the last three weeks.
Small Forward: Trevor Ariza (HOU), $5,700
For SF let’s continue to look at the “FPTS” tab:
James Harden is obviously the primary beneficiary with Dwight Howard out of the lineup, and he is one of the top overall options tonight. However, Ariza has also benefitted from Howard’s absence. He has picked up his game and is averaging 37 DK points (6x salary) over the past week, which is almost 10 DK points above his season average. His minutes are up and he’s shooting the ball well from 3-point land right now. Ariza can be a streaky shooter, so get him into your lineups while he’s hot.
This Phoenix/Houston game has the highest Vegal total of the night at a very nice 215 points, and the Suns have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing SFs on the season
Power Forward: Markieff Morris (PHO) or Donatas Motiejunas (HOU), $5,800
For power forward let’s examine the “MIN” tab.
If you’re not spending up, power forward is a little trickier. There are some nice high upside options in the mid-tier like Donatas Motiejunas, Markieff Morris, Josh Smith (SF on DK), and Kenneth Faried, but they can all be volatile. Some of the Laker big men check in high on this list, but the minutes are too unpredictable for my liking – my favorite of the Laker bigs would be Ed Davis though.
However, Morris’ and Motiejunas’ minutes are more secure, as they are seeing a 10% bump in minutes due to injuries in the Phoenix and Houston frontcourts. Both should play a minimum of 30 minutes tonight. They have each been slumping a little bit, so their prices are very affordable. With Dwight Howard out, Motiejunas is playing power forward and center. This game should be very high scoring and the Suns are 18th against PFs and 19th against centers in DVP over the last three weeks. In two matchups with the Suns, Motiejunas is averaging 30 DK points in 28 minutes. Morris is in the same high scoring game, and the Rockets are 28th in DVP against PF over the last three weeks. Morris is taking a ton of shots, as he has at least 15 FGA in each of his last seven games. However, he is also missing a ton of shots, and is coming off of a 3-for-20 game, which is almost unthinkable for a player that is 6’10”. He’s a 46.8% shooter on the season, so his shooting percentage should normalize, and the weak Houston defense against PFs presents a nice opportunity for him to break out of his slump.
Center: Jusuf Nurkic (DEN), $4,500
Jusuf Nurkic and Robert Sacre both look like attractive cheap options tonight and the Lakers and Nuggets both struggle to defend big men. I personally prefer the upside of Nurkic, and am not very comfortable with the frontcourt rotation in LA. Nurkic’s minutes have gone up each of the past three games, which has resulted in him averaging almost 30 DK points per game over the last week. He’s a guy who averages over a fantasy point per minute, so the issue with him, as well as Kenneth Faried, is minutes.
Unlike the guys I have listed above at the other positions, Nurkic’s minutes are not secure, since Brian Shaw’s rotations can be very unpredictable. However, he should easily achieve value if he gets the minutes he has over the past two games. He’s faced the Lakers one time this year and put up 36.5 DK points in 27 minutes.