Starting 5: Trending Stats Watch - Tuesday, January 13th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Trending Stats Watch tool. We can use this tool to determine which players are getting a recent boost in minutes and how well they are performing with that extra playing time. The boost in minutes is often tied closely to injuries, so it’s a tool that goes hand and hand with the RotoGrinders daily lineup alerts. While everyone is scrambling with late breaking injuries, wondering which player benefits the most, this tool helps you figure who to plug into your lineups. My two favorite tabs are “MIN” and “FPTS”, and that is what we’ll examine today.
Point Guard: Kyrie Irving, Mo Williams, Trey Burke
First we’ll take a look at who has been getting more playing time over the past week.
For today’s slate, the player receiving the top recent minutes boost is Patty Mills, followed closely by Mo Williams. Isaiah Thomas, Ronnie Price and CJ Watson are also on the radar. Mills’ recent minutes boost is due to the injuries at SG for the Spurs, as Manu Ginobili and Marco Belinelli each missed games recently, and that’s combined with the Spurs limiting Tony Parker. However, Manu is expected back today and Popovich’s rotations can be unpredictable. Mo’s minutes boost is due to him simply outplaying Zach LaVine. He’s the safer choice of the two. Now, let’s see who has done the most with those minutes and look at “FPTS” over the past week.
We again see Mo Williams and Patty Mills near the top of the list, with Mo on top. Mo looks like a solid value play today, and for those of you who like the baseball “BvP” tool, Mo went for 24 points and 10 assists in an earlier meeting with the Pacers. Also, we now have identified Kyrie Irving and Jeff Teague as higher priced options who have been very productive over the past week. Kyrie’s boost has come with LeBron out of the lineup, so if LeBron, who is a GTD decision tonight, is ruled out, Kyrie becomes a fantastic option. If LeBron plays, you can pivot to a scorching hot Jeff Teague in a prime matchup with the 76ers. They are similarly priced, so you shouldn’t have to rework your lineups. Finally, let’s look at “FPTS” over a longer 3-week timespan.
Trey Burke checks in at the top and is averaging 30 fantasy points per game over the last three weeks, which is 6.25 fantasy points above his season average. That boost in production coincides with the injury to Alec Burks, who is out for the year, so Burke’s increased usage looks to be cemented for the year. If he continues to average 30 fantasy points per game, he will eventually be priced around 7K, so there is still value to be had here since he is still sitting a very affordable 6K.
Shooting Guard: Klay Thompson
Let’s start again by looking at who has been getting more playing time over the past week.
There’s not a lot to like at SG. Wayne Ellington has seen a big boost and is averaging 30 MPG over the past week while Kobe is rested (he’s a game-time decision for tonight). If Kobe sits, Ellington looks to be locked into at least 30 minutes and is a viable punt at only 4.1K. However, if Kobe plays, cross him off your list. The problem is that this is the last game of the night, so Kobe’s status may not be known by the time lineups lock on FanDuel. Now, on to the recent fantasy point production.
Klay Thompson has been on fire, averaging 43 fantasy points in his last two games, and he draws a terrific matchup with Joe Ingles and the Utah Jazz, who have allowed the seventh most FD points to SGs over the last 10 days. If you’re looking to spend a little at SG, Klay is the guy to go get.
Small Forward: Andrew Wiggins
Andrew Wiggins is listed as a SG in the database, and is indeed playing SG, but he’s still listed as a SF on the sites. If you scroll back up to the above SG tables, you’ll see that Wiggins is averaging 37 MPG and almost 32 FD points over that span. The Wolves are unleashing the top pick in the draft, and are really banged up right now. They could get Kevin Martin back tonight, but are now without Shabazz Muhammad. Wiggins should continue to see heavy volume and minutes regardless, so he has nice high floor for your cash games at a tough position to fill. Wiggins is the guy at SF.
Looking at minutes, Austin Daye is at the top of the list, but that is a one-game sample size that came with both Marco Belinelli and Manu Ginobili out. Manu is expected to return, which will take Daye off the radar. Chase Budinger and Anthony Bennett are the only interesting players, as Minnesota is really beat up right now. If Kevin Martin doesn’t return tonight, Budinger should draw the start and he’s minimum priced. Meanwhile, Bennett has played at least 20 minutes in each of the past three games. Now let’s take take a quick look at recent fantasy production
You won’t see Budinger on this chart, as he hasn’t been very productive and is primarily just a spot up shooter. However, Anthony Bennett does appear here and is the better choice of the two. He’s only 3.8K and has hit 6X value on FD in two of his last three games. Also, Gorgui Dieng is questionable for this game, so Bennett could grab even more minutes tonight if Dieng doesn’t play. Bennett is a PF and is in consideration as a punt PF, depending of course on who plays for Minnesota tonight.
Power Forward: David West
Below you’ll find the minutes column.
There’s not a whole lot to take from the PF spot today. Marreese Speights is showing up heavily here, but digging a little deeper that is due to blowouts, as the Warriors have won each of their last five games by a minimum of 15 points. The Warriors could certainly crush Utah tonight, but this game is on the road and the Warriors are only favored by 7. Also, Andrew Bogut is expected to return to the starting lineup tonight. Down at the bottom, you’ll see David West has finally started to work himself up to around 32 MPG. And, based on the “FPTS” tab, he has been productive.
West checks in at the top of the list, averaging 34 FD points over his last three games. He draws a great matchup with Minnesota, who is very weak on the inside and could be without their starting center. West makes for a very solid cash game play at sub 7K. You’ll also notice Kevin Love, as he has averaged almost 40 FD points over the past three games. Like Kyrie, his bump has come without LeBron on the floor. If LeBron plays, I wouldn’t play Love because of his $10K price. However, if LeBron remains out, Love is certainly in play as a high end option against an up-tempo Phoenix team that has coughed up some big games to opposing big men.
Center: Hassan Whiteside and DeMarcus Cousins
Here’s the minutes column for centers:
There area few interesting names here. Rudy Gobert checks in at the top of the list, but Enes Kanter has returned to the lineup, so his playing time isn’t as secure. The matchup with the Warriors tonight is tough too. Right below him, you’ll find Hassan Whiteside, who will probably be the most popular value play of the night, sitting at 5.2K. He averaged 23 MPG last week, but played 29 minutes in his last game. He won’t start the first half, but will apparently start the second half against the weak interior of the Lakers. I’d expect a minimum of 25 minutes, barring foul trouble. The other interesting name is DeMarcus Cousins, whose minutes are up near the 40s now. He played 38, 39, and 35 minutes last week, and the 35 was only due to a blowout. If he stays out of foul trouble, Cousins should keep posting enormous fantasy days. If we look at “FPTS”, we’ll see Hassan and Boogie have taken full advantage of their minutes bump.
Hassan went bonkers with 50.2 FD points against the Clippers, and he scored 26 FD points in the other matchup. Now, he draws a prime matchup with the Lakers. He’ll be the highest owned value play of the day, so if you want to play the contrarian card, he would be the guy to fade. If you want to fade him, I’d pay all the way up to Boogie, who AVERAGED 57.23 FD points last week. Tyson Chandler is a good defender, but the Mavericks have struggled with opposing centers recently — they have allowed the third most FanDuel points to opposing centers over the past three weeks.