Starting 5 - Trending Stats Watch: Tuesday, March 10th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Trending Stats Watch. We can use this tool to determine which players are getting a recent boost in minutes and how well they are performing with that extra playing time. The boost in minutes is often tied closely to injuries, so it’s a tool that goes hand and hand with the RotoGrinders daily lineup alerts.
Today I’ll look at FanDuel pricing. I’ll look at both the “MIN” and “FPTS” tab, with the “MIN” tab being the first chart under each position.
Point Guard: Reggie Jackson, $6,900
Reggie Jackson will be one of the more popular plays of the night due to price and matchup. As you can see from the following charts, his minutes have been on the rise since his trade to Detroit, which has led to an increase in fantasy production. (Al Smizzle’s minutes = money plug).
As you can see from the above minutes chart, he had a brief hiccup against Washington, where he was benched for Spencer Dinwiddie, but Jackson has really responded well to the benching and has averaged 33 MPG over the past week. Now for “FPTS”:
Not surprisingly, Jackson has seen a corresponding rise in fantasy production, averaging 37 FD points over the past week.
When you combine his recent boost in minutes and production and his matchup with the Lakers, who are dead last in DVP against PGs, you have the top play of the night at PG. Jackson’s 6.9K price tag still hasn’t caught up to his recent production, and he is a guy who should eventually settle into the 7.5 to 8K range.
Shooting Guard: Rodney Stuckey, $5,500
First let’s look at the minutes:
And the recent production:
Rodney Stuckey has become one of the few bench players that I am comfortable rostering, as his role has become very well defined. Based on the minutes chart, he has only seen a modest boost in playing time recently. However, that number is deceiving since it is being held down by a game where he only played 19 minutes in a blowout of the Knicks. Taking that game out of the equation, he has played at least 29 minutes in each of his past four games. He’s averaging 25.77 FD points over the last week and 29.91 over the last three weeks, which is what we are looking for at this price. He’s averaged 19.5 points and 3.5 assists in two meetings with the Magic this year, and he is a nice money saving option to allow you to spend at PF (hint: Anthony Davis).
A quick note on Victor Oladipo, who is showing up heavily in both charts. The Magic were decimated by injuries last week and had only three healthy guards, which led to Oladipo and Elfrid Payton playing huge minutes. Nikola Vucevic was also out, which further boosted Oladipo’s usage. Vucevic is expected to return tonight, and it looks like at least one of the Magic backup guards will be back too. If all the Magic guards are out again, Oladipo is a fine option. However, if they return, I’ll pass, as Oladipo’s price is at a season high and his minutes and shots would likely come down from last week.
Small Forward: Kawhi Leonard, $7,600
For small forward, let’s look at recent production:
As is the case every night, LeBron James is a top option if you can afford him. However, I’m looking to spend at PF and C tonight, so it’s going to be tough to fit Lebron. You can instead save $3,100 and drop down to Kawhi Leonard as your SF anchor.
Leonard has really picked up his production recently, averaging almost 40 FD PPG over the last week, which is seven points above his season average. He has consistently been topping 30 MPG recently, and draws a terrific matchup with the Raptors, who are 24th in DVP against SFs.
Power Forward: Anthony Davis, $11,200
First, let’s look at the minutes:
The Pelicans have thrown Anthony Davis right back into the fire, as he is averaging a monstrous 40.75 MPG over his last four games. Anytime you are guaranteed that many minutes from a superstar and can lock in a high fantasy point per minute guy like Anthony Davis, you need to look to get him into your lineups.
He’s been overshadowed by Russell Westbrook’s ridiculousness, but Davis has been going bonkers as well. With that rise in minutes has come a huge increase in fantasy production as well. Davis is averaging almost 14 FD points above his season average over the past week, and he is a guy who already averaged 47 FD points a game. He also happens to play the Brooklyn Nets, whose interior defense is very weak, as they are 26th in DVP against PFs on the year.
I’m trying to spend at PF today and you’ll also notice that Greg Monroe and Derrick Favors check on high on both charts. Monroe’s seen an uptick in minutes and has averaged almost 40 FD PPG, and now gets the dream matchup with the Lakers. Favors has also seen a boost since the trade of Enes Kanter, as he is playing around 34 MPG and producing a fantasy point per minute. Favors is the riskiest of the bunch, but has high upside against the hapless Knicks. The Jazz big men are in a great spot tonight, but the worry is a blowout, as the Jazz are favored by 14.5 points.
Center: Andre Drummond, $8,400
First let’s look at minutes:
And “FPTS”:
With Nikola Vucevic set to return, Dewayne Dedmon is no longer a thing, so don’t worry about him. That leaves Andre Drummond and Rudy Gobert for me. Drummond is typically thought of as a GPP-only play, but tonight he is cash game playable for me. He’s averaging just above 37 FD points both over the past week and also over the past three weeks, which is a big enough sample for me. Drummond also draws the same prime matchup as Greg Monroe against the Lakers, who are 26th in DVP against opposing centers on the season.
Rudy Gobert is another terrific option tonight. As you can see from the minutes chart, he has seen a huge uptick in minutes due to the trade of Enes Kanter, and is averaging 35 MPG over the past week. The worry is that he may not see his recent minutes due to the awfulness of the Knicks. If you told me he’d play at least 32 minutes, I’d be all over him, since the Knicks allowed Al Jefferson to block seven shots against them. If Big Al can block seven, how many can Gobert get tonight? Due to the blowout factor, I have Drummond slightly ahead of Gobert. However, Gobert will surely make plenty of my GPP rosters because he has terrific upside if the Knicks can keep it somewhat close, and he is also a $900 discount from Drummond.