Starting 5 - Trending Stats Watch: Tuesday, March 24th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Trending Stats Watch. We can use this tool to determine which players are getting a recent boost in minutes and how well they are performing with that extra playing time. Today, we’ll take a look at FanDuel pricing:
Point Guard: Russell Westbrook, $13,300 & Jeremy Lin, $5,500
Let’s start by looking at recent fantasy production from the PG position:
Let’s start with the low hanging fruit and get Russell Westbrook out of the way. There’s not a tool that won’t have him high on the list, and the Trending Stats Watch is no different. He’s AVERAGING an incredible 60 FD points over the past week, and now gets the top PG matchup in terms of DVP, as the Lakers are dead last against PGs. This looks like another monster triple double waiting to happen, and the only question is whether you can construct a lineup around him that you are comfortable with.
On the other side of the ball, Jeremy Lin is a very intriguing high upside option at a cheap price. Following his big 29 point game against the 76ers, he is going to get the start tonight alongside Jordan Clarkson. This game has a high total of 209 points, and with Enes Kanter and Dion Waiters inserted into the started lineup, the Thunder are not a great defensive team. The Thunder have also struggled against opposing PGs, ranking 25th in DVP against the position. The worry here would be Jeremy Lin getting in foul trouble against Russell Westbrook. However, he will be starting alongside Jordan Clarkson, which will give Byron Scott the option of putting Clarkson on Westbrook. That seems like a no brainer to me, and as long as Byron Scott has any brains whatsoever, you should see Clarkson defend Westbrook, as opposed to Lin.
Shooting Guard: Giannis Antetokounmpo, $7,400
The SG position is pretty weak tonight, and although this isn’t a great matchup, the Alphabet has been great recently. He’s playing huge minutes, averaging 37 MPG over the last three weeks and 40 MPG over the past week (boost in minutes due to three-OT game):
He’s taken advantage of his minutes increase, as he is averaging almost 40 FD points over the past four games, which is almost 13 above his season average:
This is a big matchup tonight since the Bucks and Heat are 6th and 7th respectively in the East, and you don’t want to be in the 7th spot and face Cleveland, so Giannis should continue to see huge minutes. However, it will be tough to roster him if you are going the Westbrook route, so Westbrooks’ teammates present some solid value alternatives if you are trying to squeeze Westy in. Anthony Morrow and Dion Waiters both check in on both the minutes and fantasy points section of the Trending Stats Watch. Waiters has stepped into the starting lineup and is averaging 35 MPG and getting up double figure shot attempts. However, he’s been volatile, as he’s not contributing in other categories and struggles to play without the ball in his hands, which is a problem when you are a on team with Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Morrow has also carved out a solid role recently, because teams are collapsing on Russ, which creates open shots for a great shooter like Morrow. He’s scored at least 20 FD points in four straight games, and although neither Waiters or Morrow will likely have a huge game, they should be in the 20-25 FD point range.
Small Forward: Omri Casspi, $3,900 & Rudy Gay, $8,600
I’ll probably mix in some Kawhi Leonard as well, but rostering both of the Sac-town SFs tonight looks like a great avenue to take. The Kings have gone to a smaller starting lineup in the last two games, and have started Omri Casspi at SF with Rudy Gay shifting to PF. As a result, Casspi has seen a big minutes boost:
He is averaging 27 MPG over the past week and 32.5 MPG in his two starts, which is a huge increase over the 18 MPG he averages on the season. As we’ve come to expect, those increased minutes have translated to increased fantasy production:
Casspi is averaging almost 20 FD points over the past week, which is the 5x salary you need at his cheap price. The move to a smaller lineup has also benefitted Rudy Gay, as it really opens up the floor to give him more room to operate and can leave him with mismatches offensively. He’s taken advantage, as he is averaging 42 FD points over the past week – although I should note that two of those games came with Boogie Cousins out of the lineup. The matchup doesn’t get much better against the 76ers, who are 26th in DVP against PFs on the season.
Power Forward: Ersan Ilyasova, $5,600
Ilyasova is viewed around the industry as an incredibly volatile asset, and when you combine his volatile reputation with Jason Kidd’s reputation for irregular rotations, you get a guy with low ownership levels. Those things were true about Jason Kidd and Ilyasova during the first part of the year, but things have changed since the All-Star break:
As you can see, Ilyasova is averaging 35 minutes per game over the last week (that number is slightly inflated due to a three-OT game) and 30 MPG over the last three weeks. Not surprisingly, as his minutes have stabilized, so has his fantasy production:
Ilyasova is averaging 25 FD points over the past three weeks and 30 over the past week. The matchup with Miami isn’t the best, but the Heat are playing faster with Goran Dragic and have dipped to 18th in DVP against PFs over the past three weeks. The PF position is very thin today, as the top guys are all dealing with injuries, so Ilyasova makes for a very solid lower cost option at a tough position to fill tonight.
Center: Enes Kanter, $6,900
For center, let’s again look at recent production:
Given his price and matchup, I’m expecting Kanter to be the highest owned center of the night (followed by Boogie Cousins for GPPs), and for good reason. He’s seen a huge uptick in production since his trade to the Thunder, as he is averaging 32 FD points over the past three weeks, whereas he is only averaging 25 FD points on the season. With Serge Ibaka injured, Kanter has picked it up even more and is averaging 39.20 FD points over his last two games, and due to the Thunder’s injuries, he is locked in as the second option offensively. He draws a terrific matchup with the Lakers, who are 26th in DVP against centers on the season, and is still sitting at sub 7K salary.
Also, Nerlens Noel shows up the center section for our site because, well, he plays center. However, the sites still list him at PF. The top of the PF pool is littered with injuries and GTDs, which leaves Noel as a top option. As you can see from the chart, he’s really picked up his play since the All-Star break and is averaging 35 FD points over the past three weeks. If he can avoid foul trouble against Boogie, he should be in a for a big night against the weak Sacramento defense, and he just put 40 FD points on the Kings recently in only 28 minutes played.