Starting 5 - Trending Stats Watch: Tuesday, March 31st
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Trending Stats Watch. We can use this tool to determine which players are getting a recent boost in minutes and how well they are performing with that extra playing time.
Today, we’ll take a look at FanDuel pricing:
Editor’s Note: The Hawks will have their regular starting five out there for tonight’s game.
Point Guard: Reggie Jackson, $8,600
First let’s look at the recent minutes:
George Hill has seen his minutes cap removed and is now playing big minutes, averaging 37 MPG over the last week. Reggie Jackson also checks on high on the list, averaging almost 34 MPG over the last week. Lastly, Shelvin Mack has seen a minutes bump, and is a potential great punt play if the Hawks rest Jeff Teague tonight.
Now, let’s see what they’ve done with those minutes:
Jackson checks in at the top of list as he is averaging 50 FD PPG over the last week. His recent tear has coincided directly with the injury to Greg Monroe – he is picking up a ton of extra usage with Monroe out. There are rumors that the Hawks will rest their starters tonight, and it makes sense as this is the backend of a B2B for Atlanta and they have nothing to play for. That would be a big matchup boost to Jackson, as Jeff Teague’s backup, Dennis Schroder, was also injured last night. George Hill has also been productive, but I prefer Jackson, as long as Atlanta rests their starters.
If Atlanta does rest their starters, that brings us to Shelvin Mack. He played 25 and 26 minutes the last two games Jeff Teague has rested, and that came with Dennis Schroder in the lineup. With Schroder also out, Mack would be in line for 30+ minutes, and he becomes a very solid minimum priced punt option if Teague sits.
I haven’t hit on the two priciest PGs of the night in Chris Paul and Stephen Curry, and they are also in the projected highest scoring game of the night. This game means more to the Clippers, as the Warriors have already locked up playoff seeding, and CP3 is a great on-ball defender (Curry has only averaged 18 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists in three matchups with the Clips this season). For that reason, I give the edge to Chris Paul and he will likely be the other expensive PG option besides Reggie Jackson that I look to tonight.
Shooting Guard: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, $5,300
First let’s look at the minutes:
KCP has seen a huge boost in minutes recently, as he is averaging over 37 MPG in the last week, and that type of minute security is very attractive on a short and ugly slate.
And the recent production:
Despite a poor last game, KCP has been productive with those minutes, averaging over 26 FD PPG in the last week, which pays off his salary. You’ll notice that I’ve written up three Pistons (KCP, Jackson, and Drummond), and that is because they have all seen a big boost due to Monroe’s injury. However, they do draw a tough matchup in the Hawks, and if the Hawks don’t rest their starters, I won’t be plugging all of those Pistons into my lineups. If the Hawks do rest their starters, a mini-Pistons stack with those three top options is a fine way to go.
Speaking of Atlanta resting their starters, you’ll notice Kent Bazemore and John Jenkins checking in on the above chart. Both were productive when Atlanta sat their starters on Saturday (Jenkins had 25.7 FD points and Baze had 29), and they would be in line to easily pay off their salaries once again. Dennis Schroder is also out, so one of Baze or Jenkins will likely be asked to play some backup PG if Atlanta does end up resting the starters.
Klay Thompson isn’t checking in high on the list, as the Warriors have been limiting their starters’ minutes, and he has topped 30 minutes only once in his past four games. He’s obviously an attractive target – he’s a great player and is playing in the highest scoring game of the night, but just try to get a feel that Kerr is willing to give his starters some solid minutes tonight. Assuming the minutes are there, he’s clearly in play, but he doesn’t fit this column since it’s focused on recent minutes and fantasy production. You could also consider J.J. Redick, but I feel like he is overpriced on FD.
Small Forward: Kawhi Leonard, $8,200
The SF position is brutal tonight and it looks like Draymond Green is banged up and could sit tonight. DeMarre Carroll is a potential rest risk, which further limits the options. Looking at the recent “FPTS”, we aren’t left with a whole lot:
For that reason, I’d recommend locking in production with Kawhi Leonard in one of your SF spots. He’s averaged almost 37 FD points over the past three weeks, and most of the other SFs will struggled to get you 25. The Spurs haven’t rested anyone in a while and that is always a possibility, but when that happens, they usually rest Ginobili, Parker or Duncan, and it only gives a bigger boost to Kawhi. As for your second SF spot, there are a number of ways you could go and injuries could shape which direction you take. As of right now, it looks like Matt Barnes, who is averaging 25 FD points over his last week, and C.J. Miles, who is listed as a SG in our database, are solid options.
Power Forward: Blake Griffin, $8,800
PF is right there with SF and is pretty rough tonight. Blake Griffin isn’t going to show up on any of the following charts, because the Clippers have eased him back in and they had two blowouts against the Knicks and 76ers.
Griffin is the top option and a great anchor at power forward, especially with his price being depressed and Draymond Green looking doubtful. That being said, let’s use the charts to find some value so that you can fit him in.
First, the minutes:
Udonis Haslem and Mike Muscala jump out as premium possible value plays, but that will depend on the Heat injury situation and whether the Hawks rest their starters. Haslem is averaging 28 minutes over the past week and has topped 35+ minutes in two of his past three games. However, the return of either Chris Andersen or Hassan Whiteside tonight would put a damper on those minutes, and make him a risky play with his price being on the rise.
Looking at fantasy production:
Haslem again checks in at the top of the list and is a fine option, assuming the rest of the Heat frontcourt is out. If Atlanta rests their starters once again, Muscala would be my preference over Haslem, as he is cheaper and draws the much better matchup against the Pistons, who are 29th in DVP against PFs. Elton Brand would also be in play in that scenario as a GPP pivot from Muscala.
Center: Andre Drummond, $9,400
For centers, let’s again look at recent fantasy production:
Brook Lopez has been on a tear recently, but his price is really on the rise and he draws a tough matchup with the Pacers. Andre Drummond’s price is also on the rise, and foul trouble is always a worry with him. However, he has shown monstrous upside without Greg Monroe in the lineup, as he has topped 50 FD points in three of his last four games. Greg Monroe is expected to miss another game, and although the matchup looks tough on paper, the Hawks could rest their starters tonight.
If the Hawks do in fact rest both Al Horford and Paul Millsap, Drummond should make quick work of Elton Brand, Mike Muscala, and Pero Antic. When the Hawks rested their starters last Saturday, Al Jefferson was limited by injuries and only played 17 minutes. However, his backup, Bismack Biyombo, came in and put up 9 points, 11 rebounds and 3 blocks against the Atlanta backup bigs. Drummond is an entirely different beast from Biyombo and is in a great spot, assuming Atlanta rests their starters. If Atlanta does play their starters, you could always pivot to DeAndre Jordan, who has been playing well recently, averaging 39 FD PPG, and he is playing in the highest total game of the night.