Starting 5: Using Advanced Player Stats – Monday, January 26th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Advanced Player Stats tool, utilizing individual player metrics to determine which players are in the best position to take advantage of good matchups.
It’s not enough just to look at DvP, as we also need to determine which players are utilized by their team enough to actually benefit from these matchups, and which players simply don’t do enough to experience much of a boost.
Point Guard – Mo Williams (MIN)
If we take a look at both season and recent DvP rankings, Oklahoma City is ranked near the bottom of the league for both time periods. It’s safe to say that opposing point guards are the players most likely to find success against the Thunder. However, we want to make sure that if we’re targeting Oklahoma City with a point guard, it’s a player that is in a position to take advantage of the plus matchup and reach a score that is above their typical production.
A player like Dante Exum, for example, isn’t a player I would go out of my way to roster in this matchup. His usage rate is a paltry 14.70%, and his assist percentage is 9.52, which is horrible for a point guard. Mo Williams, however, has a very healthy usage rate of 23.20%, and a very impressive 22.65% assist rate. He’s the type of player who is in position to take advantage of a great matchup with Oklahoma City, while players like Exum can be ignored.
Shooting Guard – Tyreke Evans (NO)
I’m not going to list a good and bad player for every position. I compared Mo Williams with Dante Exum to illustrate the difference between a player that is worth targeting in a plus matchup compared to a player that likely won’t experience much of, if any, boost in that same matchup.
Tyreke Evans is the perfect example of a player you want to have a healthy dose of exposure to in any favorable matchup that he’s in. He’s even worth targeting in difficult matchups because of his healthy contributions in points, rebounds, and assists. You’re not going to find many players available at the shooting guard position that have a usage rate of 26.50%, an assist rate of 24.06%, and a rebounding rate of 12.12%. Those are ridiculous numbers and are undeniable proof that Evans is a high floor, high ceiling player in just about every matchup. Tonight he’s playing the Sixers, and while most Sixers road games get out of hand rather quickly, Evans should still see three quarters and should post a big state line in his time on the court.
Small Forward – Gordon Hayward (UTA)
Not only does Gordon Hayward draw a very favorable matchup with the Celtics, like Tyreke Evans, he’s the perfect type of player to use to target a bad defense. His numbers aren’t quite as impressive as Evans’s, but they’re still elite when you consider he’s small forward eligible. You’re not going to find too many wings that contribute as heavily as Hayward does in not only points, but rebounds and assists as well. I also included the other aspect of the Advanced Stats page, which focuses on touches. As you can see, Hayward averages 70.2 touches per game.
To put that in perspective, Hayward averages the second-most touches per game out of all of the guards that are not point guards. Eric Bledsoe is at the top of the list with 71 touches per game. Keep in mind that the Suns are a much faster paced team than the Jazz, so Hayward has the ball in his hands more on a per possession basis. The Jazz will be playing way up in pace against the Celtics, so you can reasonably expect that Hayward will be well above his 70.2 touches tonight. Combine that information with a plus matchup and very health usage, assist, and rebounding rates, and you have yourself a very safe, high floor, high ceiling player at a very thin position tonight.
Power Forward – Derrick Favors (UTA)
At this point in the season, it’s no surprise that Boston is bleeding fantasy points to opposing big men. While Serge Ibaka is going to be a popular pick given his matchup with the Timberwolves, I much prefer Derrick Favors. His usage rate of 23% is much higher than Ibaka’s 19.80%. He also rebounds at a better rate, 18.65% to 15.17%.
Both players are in very favorable matchups, but I’m willing to spend a few hundred more of my salary cap to roster Favors, who I consider to be a much more reliable option tonight given the fact that he’s more involved in his team’s offensive game plan. Keep in mind, I’m not saying Ibaka is a bad play today. He’s certainly a top option tonight. I’m simply using advanced stats to illustrate why I prefer Favors if I had to choose only one power forward.
Center – Marc Gasol (MEM)
You’re not going to see a prettier listing of stats for a center than what you get with Marc Gasol. While he’s not going to wow you by dropping 30+ points on opposing teams on a nightly basis, he contributes so much in every category, that it doesn’t really matter. While his usage and rebounding rates are impressive, it’s his assist and block rates that really make him stand out. His assist rate of 16.49% is the highest of any center in the league. Joakim Noah is second at 12.70%. His block rate of 38.98% is good for third in the league behind only DeAndre Jordan and Gorgui Dieng.
What’s also important to note is Gasol’s touches per game of 71.3 That’s good for first among all centers with DeMarcus Cousins in second at 66.9. Given the plus matchup with an Orlando team that has been playing at a very fast pace lately, Gasol should be in line for a significant production boost over his season averages.