Starting Five: DvP, Wednesday, February 4th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Defense vs Position tool. DvP is one of the most important tools available when considering players to target on a particular night, and it’s also one of the simplest to break down and understand. If you are new to daily fantasy NBA, analyzing defense vs. position is a great place to start.
As we near the halfway point of the season, we have plenty of data to support the rankings. However, it’s always important to remember that you can’t blindly use a player just because the team he’s facing is weak against his position. Use the other tools available at RotoGrinders, such as the Vegas Odds and advanced player stats to make sure you’re selecting a player that can take further advantage of the nice defensive matchup.
POINT GUARD – Brandon Knight OR Jerryd Bayless vs. Lakers ($7,600 / $4,400 on FanDuel)
Lakers – 46.92 FanDuel PPG allowed to PG for the season
We don’t yet know the status of Brandon Knight for tonight’s contest against the Lakers, but whoever gets the majority of the minutes for the Bucks at point guard has a great matchup. The Lakers unsurprisingly rank at the bottom of the NBA in fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards this season, and their rotating cast of thousands at the position hasn’t helped their defense. Jordan Clarkson has been playing well, but he’s prone to turnovers and isn’t the most polished defensive option. Monitor the news wires today and plug in Knight or Bayless depending on Knight’s injury situation.
SHOOTING GUARD – Jimmy Butler vs. Rockets ($8,500 on FanDuel)
Rockets – 48.51 FanDuel PPG allowed to SG over the last three weeks
The early season talk of “James Harden for Defensive Player of the Year” was ridiculous and completely overblown. We’ve seen a major correction in the last three weeks. Check out the DvP chart (filtered for the last three weeks). Houston is allowing not only the most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards over the last three weeks, but they are six points worse than any other team in the league. That includes the hapless defense of the Orlando Magic. Feel free to roll with Jimmy Butler tonight, as you know he will get the minutes trying to contain Harden on the other end, and he should accumulate plenty of fantasy points to pay off his salary this evening.
SMALL FORWARD – Kawhi Leonard vs. Magic ($8,100 on FanDuel)
Magic – 41.97 FanDuel PPG allowed to SF over the last three weeks
Speaking of the hapless defense of the Magic, it would be remiss if I didn’t mention someone going up against them tonight. Enter Kawhi Leonard. He’s become the one consistent option in the San Antonio offense, and his rebounding rate has been surprisingly good this season. He’s been talked about as a breakout player for the last two years, and it’s finally coming to fruition. At a thin small forward spot, expect Leonard to be a very popular play tonight against Orlando. The Magic are the worst team in the league at defending opposing small forwards over the last three weeks, and I wouldn’t expect that to change in this matchup.
POWER FORWARD – Jared Sullinger vs. Nuggets ($6,200 on FanDuel)
Nuggets – 44.66 FanDuel PPG allowed to PF for the season
Targeting opposing big men against the Nuggets has been a successful strategy for the better part of the last two seasons. With Timofey Mozgov now in Cleveland, their interior defense has taken yet another hit. Rookie Jusuf Nurkic has improved their defense somewhat, but he seems to be marred by foul trouble and Brian Shaw limiting his minutes. Denver ranks dead last in the league against opposing power forwards over the last three weeks, and they are third from the bottom for the season. In other words, targeting power forwards against them is still a good idea. Jared Sullinger returned to the starting lineup for Boston on Tuesday and had a solid game against New York. Expect more of the same here.
Editor’s Note: Sullinger has been benched for showing up late to shootaround for a second time. Tyler Zeller will start. Sullinger is a riskier play with this news.
CENTER – Hassan Whiteside vs. Timberwolves ($7,400 on FanDuel)
Timberwolves – 48.28 FanDuel PPG allowed to C for the season
Whiteside-Mania is sweeping the nation. He was over 50% owned in some tournaments last night, and he was upwards of 65-70% owned in some large field cash games. His per-minute fantasy production over the last month has been outrageously good, and fantasy players are taking notice. He draws a nice matchup against the Timberwolves tonight, as they allow 48 FanDuel points per game to opposing centers for the season. It’s not that Nikola Pekovic and Gorgui Dieng are awful defenders, but the limitations of the rest of the team are a problem. Missed shots allow opposing centers to load up on rebounds. Minnesota’s poor guard defense allows teams to attack the basket and dish to centers for easy shots. Blocks are fairly easy to come by. This all sets up well for Whiteside, assuming he gets the run and stays out of foul trouble. He is his own worst enemy in his subpar games.