Stat Factors: Week 10
NFL Advanced Data is more accessible than ever, and with the power of providers like Sports Info Solutions and PlayerProfiler.com, RotoGrinders is here to bring them to your doorstep. Each week, Stat Factors will compare 99 team level metrics and hundreds more advanced player level analytics to bring you key “Stat Factors” that matter for each game. We’ll then break them down and teach you how to empower your decision making for the week using these factors. The best DFS players in the world supplement their process with sports analytics, and we’re here to help you enhance your week of research.
New Orleans Saints vs. Cincinnati Bengals
New Orleans Saints Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 5 TE Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 5 QB Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 QB Pressure and Sack % Matchup
Top 10 Rush and Pass Success % Matchup
Top 10 RB and TE Target Success Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Pass Matchup
Top 10 TD, Points, Plays, and Yards Per Drive Matchup
Top 10 DVOA Matchup
Top 10 0-9 and 10-19 Yard Pass Success Matchup
The New Orleans Saints rank 4th in DVOA offense and have the 3rd-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 6th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The Cincinnati Bengals rank 23rd in DVOA defense and have the 13th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 20th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Saints have the advantage here in a big way, which is marginally diminished by their status as the road team.
The New Orleans Saints rushing attack is in a great spot this week. They rank #5 in rush success rate and have generated 19 explosive runs (ranked 27). They’ll be up against a Cincinnati Bengals run defense that is ranked #27 in rush DVOA and ranks 9th-highest in rush success rate allowed. They also rank #7 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position, and have allowed 28 explosive runs (ranked 10). Alvin Kamara doubled Ingram in share of carries (56% to 26%) and targets (14% to 6%) last week against the Rams. Perhaps in a less competitive game, Ingram may be able to get a bigger share of the work, and there is no doubt he will get his time in the sun again. The Saints are on the road and favored by five, and I’m not sure that’s enough to convince me we won’t see another big time Kamara edge in touches.
As far as touch quality, Kamara dominates. He saw 75% of carries inside 10 last week and 57% (14% to Taysom Hill) a week earlier. He has 194 routes run, 65 targets, 4 explosive passing plays, and 19% of team targets inside 10 yards. His value as a pass catcher is more than you probably really even realize (Kamara is ranked just 16th in raw rushing yards with 490), and barring any Sean Payton shenanigans, he is one of the best RB plays on the slate at $8,700 DK/$8,800 FD. Ingram is an affordable upside punt best suited for tournament used on DK at $4,500, and slightly less attractive at $6,800 but still viable thanks to his theoretical TD equity as we saw four weeks ago.
In the passing game, the New Orleans Saints are in a high-powered situation for DFS. They rank #1 in pass success rate and have generated 33 explosive passes (ranked 7). They’ll be facing a Cincinnati Bengals pass defense that ranks #16 in DVOA and ranks sixth-worst in pass success rate allowed. They also rank #3 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position and #7 in points to the WR position. Deep threats are in an amazing spot, as the defense has allowed 34 explosive passes (rank 4th) this season. Michael Thomas absolutely broke the slate last week with an 83.3% share of team air yards on just a 34.8% share of targets. The matchup with the Bengals is essentially no issue for him, as the production allowed this season from the Bengals can’t possibly deter us. The Stat Factors show us Top 10 matchup rankings for the Saints in 0-9 and 10-19 Yard Pass Success rates. Eighty-seven percent of targets to Thomas fall in that depth range. It’s wheels up yet again for this week’s top raw projection across the industry.
The Factor: Michael Thomas
The X-Factor: Alvin Kamara
Cincinnati Bengals Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 5 WR and QB Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 WR Target % and Success Matchup
Top 10 Sack % Matchup
Top 10 Points, Plays, and TD Per Drive Matchup
Top 10 Pass% Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Pass % Matchup
Bottom 10 Total Plays Matchup
The Cincinnati Bengals rank 12th in DVOA offense and have the 16th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 19th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The New Orleans Saints rank 28th in DVOA defense and have the 22nd-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 28th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Bengals would have the clear advantage here were it not for the uncertainty of A.J. Green ’s absence.
The Cincinnati Bengals rushing attack is in a bad spot this week. They rank #11 in rush success rate and have generated 23 explosive runs (ranked 17) and will face the New Orleans Saints run defense that is rank 3rd in DVOA and ranks 30th in rush success rate allowed. They rank #25 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position and have allowed 15 explosive runs (rank 31). The Saints are about as big a funnel to the pass as you can find in this league based on their performance to date, and Joe Mixon will face an uphill climb to be highly efficient as a rusher. In terms of opportunity, he might be able to counterbalance the Saints strength via high volume. His percentage of team targets has already been 13%>17%>15.6%>12.5% in the last four games and now A.J. Green won’t be around with his 33%>29%>43%>21.9% of targets in that same span. His share of rushes should still be upper 60’s% at minimum even if Gio Bernard returns. It’s a very difficult matchup, and his price tags are unforgiving at $7,700 DK / $8,000 FD. It’s certainly a volume-based play if you decide to go this route, and not based on the matchup.
It’s a theoretically superior spot for the Cincinnati Bengals passing attack. They rank #11 in pass success rate and have generated 30 explosive passes (ranked 11). They’ll be dealing with the New Orleans Saints pass defense that is rank 29th in DVOA and ranks 2nd in pass success rate allowed. They rank #1 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #1 in points to the WR position. Deep threats will be in a fine situation, as the secondary has allowed 33 explosive passes (ranked 6) thus far in 2018. It’s unfathomable to me that I feel fine about a $7,500 price tag for Tyler Boyd, and yet that’s exactly where we are right now. His 26.9% share of air yards and 31% of targets against a similarly brutal Tampa Bay defense should give us reason to believe this offense can support a big workload for him. They can line him up slot all day to face off with P.J. Williams, one of the softest CB matchups in pro football right now. His projection is debatable, as I see numbers as low as 17 across the industry but multiple sources including RotoGrinders confident we’ll see a median output closer to 20. At 18, he’s above projection value and a fine play. I think the matchup presents upside, and therefore I would call him a big time factor in this game.
I noted the explosive play potential in this game, and a general deficiency against the WR position for the Saints. John Ross is just $3,900 and should be playing a lot more in this game. His explosive potential is certainly there, but even at $3,900/$5,600 I’d limit his use to GPPs on both DK/FD. He’s a goose egg waiting to happen, but the ceiling of 20 fantasy points is reachable in two plays (and that isn’t fake news).
The Factor: Tyler Boyd
The X-Factor: John Ross
Arizona Cardinals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Arizona Cardinals Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 5 RB and QB Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 RushTD Ratio Matchup
Bottom 10 WR Target Success Matchup
Bottom 10 Third Down Success % Matchup
Bottom 10 Blown Pass Blocks Matchup
The Arizona Cardinals rank 31st in DVOA offense and have the 31st-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 2nd-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The Kansas City Chiefs rank 27th in DVOA defense and have the 23rd-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 16th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The lack of offensive line play for ARI puts KC at the advantage here.
The Arizona Cardinals rushing attack is in a spot this week where if they can’t get it done now, they can’t get it done at all. They rank #31 in rush success rate and have generated 10 explosive runs (ranked 32). They will be up against a Kansas City Chiefs run defense that is rank 32nd in rush DVOA and ranks highest in rush success rate allowed. They also rank #1 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position, and have allowed 40 explosive runs (ranked 2). Let’s pretend it’s 2016. Let’s say I inform you that David Johnson is $6,800 facing the worst rush DVOA defense. You would dive to the computer to click his name if I told you the pricing expired in five minutes. This is where we are with the offensive line in Arizona. A proposition you wouldn’t have to think for give seconds about less than two seasons ago is now a debate. Arizona checks in with 3.69 adjusted line yards/carry per Football Outsiders, good for 29th best. That tells us with data what we know through watching the games: Arizona isn’t making space for DJ. The opportunity is decent for DJ with MS Rush/Target totals of 90%/16% Week 6, 66.7%/8% Week 7, and 76%/11% Week 8. While it’s nice to daydream that it’s still 2016, the fact is that the opportunity falls just short of where it needs to be to get excited. Johnson is a relatively stable floor back with a nice ceiling, but the distribution curve includes a ton of middling performances and few ceiling games. You can take a chance on him in GPPs for sure at $6,800 DK, but the prospects are slightly better on FD at a nice price of $6900. I’d try to get exposure to Johnson on FD as a result.
In the passing game, the Arizona Cardinals are in a dangerous situation for DFS. They rank #31 in pass success rate and have generated 19 explosive passes (ranked 31). They’ll be facing a Kansas City Chiefs pass defense that is rank 14th in DVOA and ranks 22nd in pass success rate allowed. They also rank #5 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #8 in points to the WR position. Deep threats are in a tremendous spot, as the defense has allowed 40 explosive passes (ranked 1) this season. The primary concern with the passing game is once again blocking thanks to a 38.24% pressure rate allowed (rank 3). It’s also a Bottom 10 Blown Pass Blocks Matchup, and we can see below in the True Pressure Rating Viz that Arizona is once again at risk of facing QB pressure. It’s a downgrade to Christian Kirk, who otherwise is getting a large market share of air yards in the offense at 30% and fits the description of a downfield passing threat that could expose the weakness of the Chiefs pass D. The presence of the pass rush threat makes the Kansas City D every bit as good or better of a play than either Kirk or Larry Fitzgerald. The only potential positive is that Marcus Davenport could miss the game, a hit to the Saints pass rush.
The Factor: David Johnson
The X-Factor: Kansas City DST.
Kansas City Chiefs Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 5 RB Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 RB and TE Target Success Matchup
Top 10 Pass Success % Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Rush Matchup
Bottom 5 QB and TE Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 10 RB Target % Matchup
Bottom 10 Clean Pocket Matchup
The Kansas City Chiefs rank 1st in DVOA offense and have the 2nd-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 23rd-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The Arizona Cardinals rank 8th in DVOA defense and have the 25th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the hardest schedule of opposing offenses. The Chiefs have the advantage here at Arrowhead with a very very large spread in their favor.
The Kansas City Chiefs rushing attack is in a medium strength matchup this week. They rank #20 in rush success rate and have generated 32 explosive runs (ranked 8) and will face the Arizona Cardinals run defense that is rank #12 in DVOA and rank #23 in rush success rate allowed. They rank #4 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position and have allowed 37 explosive runs (ranked 3). The Cardinals appear to have some ability to slow down the run in a neutral environment, but will be far from that. The Kansas City Chiefs have an implied team total of 33 points as compared to their total of roughly 17. The game may not play out to that extreme but I would still suggest the game flow is likely to fall in favor of a running back heavy approach featuring a solid dose of Kareem Hunt. He has commanded a very nice 69% the carries this season, in recent weeks has either been targeted with double-digit percent share or high efficiency as we saw last week. Even at peak prices ($8,500 on DK/ $9000 on FD), he has a high enough raw projection and strong public sentiment that makes me quite sure he’ll be popular. It’s hard to bet against the RB1 that plays for the NFL’s top offense at home with over a two touchdown spread.
It’s a mediocre spot for the Kansas City Chiefs passing attack. They rank #2 in pass success rate and have generated 46 explosive passes (ranked 1). They’ll be dealing with the Arizona Cardinals pass defense that is rank 8th in DVOA and ranks 8th in pass success rate allowed. They rank #32 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #27 in points to the WR position. Deep threats will be in a poor situation, as the secondary has allowed 20 explosive passes (ranked 30) thus far in 2018. Sammy Watkins appears to be on track to miss this game. This should solidify target volume in the direction of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. They have already dominated team air yards in the past few weeks, with as much of 76% of the share between them. Now they get an extra little sliver of upside from whatever they can steal from Watkins share. Kelce is priced through the nose at $7,000/$8,000, and you’ll be spending down at WR in a few spots if you want him. He’s still valuable for the raw points, but needs to be compared to other high end WRs you are considering and not TEs. Tyreek Hill is one of those WRs priced at $7300 DK / $7600 FD. In a matchup as described above where the opponent has been stingy about allowing explosive plays, he’s really the exception to the rule when it comes to fearing such metrics. He can roast anyone, and we wouldn’t let the Cardinals performance to date be the only reason not to take him. If we don’t use him, it’s mostly because we fear this game getting out of hand and the potential that someone else on this team secured the TDs.
As for Patrick Mahomes, he’s a phenomenal play until further notice in any matchup. We are witnessing something here folks, and this will be a guy we’ll be writing up in 12 years with a similar tone to the one I’m using now. Playing special talents like Mahomes in fantasy sports is always acceptable.
The Factor: Kareem Hunt
The X-Factor: Patrick Mahomes
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 10 Explosive Pass TD Matchup
Top 10 3WR + % Matchup
Bottom 5 RB Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 10 TE Target % Matchup
Bottom 10 Rush% Matchup
Bottom 10 Explosive Rush Matchup
Bottom 10 Explosive Pass Matchup
Bottom 10 Blown Run Blocks Matchup
The Detroit Lions rank 18th in DVOA offense and have the 14th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the hardest schedule of opposing defenses. The Chicago Bears rank 1st in DVOA defense and have the top-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 14th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Bears have the big advantage here at home.
The Detroit Lions rushing attack is in a terrible spot this week. They rank #22 in rush success rate and have generated 20 explosive runs (ranked 25), and will be up against a Chicago Bears run defense that is rank #2 in rush DVOA and ranks 27th in rush success rate allowed. They also rank #31 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position, and have allowed 13 explosive runs (ranked 32). The Lions don’t figure to have the matchup nor the game script to project Kerryon Johnson for outcomes anywhere near the top of his range. Using him in tournaments is a function of his price tag only, as he doesn’t own key roles within the offense. He has just 30 targets on 125 routes this season, only 6.67% of which have come inside 10 yards to goal. He owns just 38.5% of the rushing inside 10. We can’t say with confidence he’s game script proof, and therefore is nothing more than a low probability ownership play in a bad matchup.
In the passing game, the Detroit Lions are in a poor situation for DFS. They rank #14 in pass success rate and have generated 25 explosive passes (ranked 23). They’ll be facing a Chicago Bears pass defense that is rank #4 in DVOA and ranks #27 in pass success rate allowed. They also rank #24 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #17 in points to the WR position. Deep threats are in a poor spot, as the defense has allowed 23 explosive passes (ranked 28) this season. Matthew Stafford hasn’t flashed big upside in the new system this season and the WR corps has only done it in spurts. This game is likely to skew the play calling towards the pass, so perhaps there is hope for a productive fantasy day based on volume. Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay dominated the higher leverage targets in the absence of Golden Tate, but Theo Riddick sucked up some of the share in a game in which Stafford was under constant pressure. The Bears have both a high-pressure rate forced and sack rate this season, and will get getting the services of Khalil Mack back against a team that just allowed double digit sacks in a game. We should be expecting another game in which Stafford won’t have that much time to look deep downfield, and a reliance on targets in the short and intermediate area. Both Jones and Golladay are GPP plays based on price and theoretically leveraged target opportunities, but neither one can be called high probability plays. Theo Riddick might be the best option based on the analysis above, and he’ll also be available at the lowest ownership. His ceiling is limited in like 9 of every 10 games, but he has come through for us in the past with similar matchup layouts.
The Factor: Bears DST
The X-Factor: Theo Riddick
Chicago Bears Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 10 Yards Before Contact Matchup
Top 10 Rush Success % Matchup
Top 10 RB Target Success Matchup
Top 10 RB Target % Matchup
Top 10 RB Bounce Rate Matchup
Top 10 Points Per Drive Matchup
Top 10 Pass Behind Line Success Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Rush TD Matchup
Top 10 DVOA Matchup
Top 10 20+ Yard Pass % Matchup
Top 10 2 RB+ % Matchup
Bottom 5 WR Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 5 QB Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
The Chicago Bears rank 10th in DVOA offense and have the 25th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 5th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The Detroit Lions rank 29th in DVOA defense and have the 29th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 22nd-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Bears have the advantage here.
The Chicago Bears rushing attack is in an excellent spot this week. They rank #10 in rush success rate and have generated 28 explosive runs (ranked 11). They will face the Detroit Lions run defense that is rank 28 in DVOA and ranks 8th in rush success rate allowed. They rank #10 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position and have allowed 23 explosive runs (ranked 22). Somehow a player with 2 TDs was a minor disappointment in the stone-cold nut spot last week, and we can just cross Jordan Howard off the list for now. It’s not that a 100-yard game can’t happen, it’s just that it won’t (RIP this take). The matchup sets up better for Tarik Cohen anyway based on the Stat Factors above. The matchup is strong in terms of yards before contact, RB target success and volume, passes behind the line, and explosive runs. Cohen is already twice as effective in terms of yards before contact, and commands nearly 20% of the Bears overall target share on the season (including 26% inside the 10 yard line). It’s Cohen over Howard all day on DraftKings while you can even avoid my laughter if you want to play him at $6,400 on FanDuel.
It’s a low-end spot for the Chicago Bears passing attack. They rank #16 in pass success rate and have generated 26 explosive passes (ranked 22). They’ll be dealing with the Detroit Lions pass defense that is rank #30 in DVOA and ranks #4 in pass success rate allowed. They rank #28 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #29 in points to the WR position. Deep threats will be in a below average situation, as the secondary has allowed 25 explosive passes (ranked 23) thus far in 2018. We get Allen Robinson returning to dilute the opportunity shares of Taylor Gabriel, Anthony Miller, and Trey Burton to the point where none of them project as positive median values per the current Rotogrinders projections. Burton at $3,900 is the best option thanks to position scarcity, but outside the vacuum of the TE position he’s not that exciting via a 15% overall team share of targets. He’s most attractive as a threat inside the 10, where he has 6 targets to date. Only one of those has actually been in the end zone, but the play designs they use make it essentially a lock for him to score if he receives a pass in that area of the field.
I’m not expecting a shootout, and therefore I won’t be going out of my way to get Mitchell Trubisky despite no true red flags. A competent fantasy performance is incoming, but I’d wager another QB finds himself on the winning GPP roster this week.
The Factor: Tarik Cohen
The X-Factor: Trey Burton
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 10 RB Target % Matchup
Top 10 Pass Behind Line Success Matchup
Top 10 Blown Run Blocks Matchup
Top 10 0-9 Yard Pass % Matchup
Bottom 10 RB Bounce Rate Matchup
Bottom 10 20+ Yard Pass % Matchup
The Jacksonville Jaguars rank 28th in DVOA offense and have the 29th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 10th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The Indianapolis Colts rank 22 in DVOA defense and have the 17th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Colts have the on-paper advantage here, but the return of Leonard Fournette will 100% change the dynamic of the Jaguars attack as advertised in the rankings above. It’s more of a neutral to plus matchup for Jacksonville if you make some fair assumptions about his role and impact.
The Jacksonville Jaguars rushing attack is in a nice spot this week. They rank #21 in rush success rate and have generated 18 explosive runs (ranked 30) against a Indianapolis Colts run defense that is rank #13 in rush DVOA and ranks 12th in rush success rate allowed. They also rank #18 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position, and have allowed 26 explosive runs (ranked 16). The fact that the Colts aren’t rising to the tippy top against a cupcake schedule that includes Lynch/McCoy/Crowell/A hapless NE rushing game/Miller/A gaggle of Eagles Jabronis/The ghost of Peterson/and (finally a big name) Mixon should be an immediate green flag for a returning Leonard Fournette. In a must win situation with weeks of proof that the passing attack just can’t handle the heat on it’s own, I’ll be stunned if a combo of Fournette and Hyde doesn’t dominate this game plan. I’ll also be stunned if they fail to find success. The issue here is that we currently project just a 60% share of carries and 12% of targets for Fournette. That’s a nice volume, but a bit short of some of the workloads we see at the top of the mountain. Therefore, he’s just a deep GPP play with low “buzz” and projected ownership but relatively high ceiling.
In the passing game, the Jacksonville Jaguars are in a “better than you think” situation for DFS. They rank #15 in pass success rate and have generated 28 explosive passes (ranked 19). They’ll be facing an Indianapolis Colts pass defense that is rank #25 in DVOA and ranks #1 in pass success rate allowed. They also rank #20 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #26 in points to the WR position. Deep threats are in a below average spot, as the defense has allowed 23 explosive passes (ranked 28) this season. The target share in this offense is spread way too thin to focus on any single pass catcher, so we turn our attention the QB if we think there is reason to roster this passing attack. Let’s be clear: “we” don’t. Maybe “you” do, but I’m not going this route. Bortles is just $4,900 on DK and should throw a pair of TDs or more in this matchup. If you want to make a wild guess on who scores based on the MS targets shown below, be my guest. I for sure think it can work out of you get the right combo, but I also think there are predictable situations available this week with as much or more upside. You don’t have to live this way.
The Factor: Leonard Fournette
The X-Factor: Blake Bortles
Indianapolis Colts Skewed Matchups of Note
Bottom 5 WR Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 5 QB Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 10 Yards Per Drive Matchup
Bottom 10 Explosive Pass Matchup
The Indianapolis Colts rank 14th in DVOA offense and have the 10th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 24th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The Jacksonville Jaguars rank 6th in DVOA defense and have the 10th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 10th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Jaguars have the advantage here.
The Indianapolis Colts rushing attack is in a fade-worthy spot this week. They rank #28 in rush success rate and have generated 23 explosive runs (ranked 17). They will face the Jacksonville Jaguars run defense that is rank #9 in DVOA and ranks #32 in rush success rate allowed. They rank #26 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position and have allowed 27 explosive runs (ranked 12). Gap block running and overall rushing success has been a big positive for the Colts this season, but Marlon Mack finds himself in a tough spot against a defense that most people don’t even try to run on via gap blocks and few are successful when they do. We’ve got a negative projection value for Mack posted currently, and that’s about how I feel about it as well. I’m simply not interested in going this direction despite their status are short home favorites. I think Jacksonville show up for this game on defense, or at the bare minimum in run defense.
It’s a sub-optimal spot for the Indianapolis Colts passing attack. They rank #12 in pass success rate and have generated 21 explosive passes (ranked 28). They’ll be dealing with the Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense that is rank #7 in DVOA and ranks #32 in pass success rate allowed. They rank #30 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #32 in points to the WR position. Deep threats will be in the worst situation possible, as the secondary has allowed 19 explosive passes (ranked 32) thus far in 2018. We want to avoid Jalen Ramsey, who will shadow T.Y. Hilton. We don’t give a rats ass about any other IND receiver, and therefore Jack Doyle suddenly pops back into our lives priced at $4,300 on DK and $5,600 on FD. Eric Ebron is also in the mix for GPP, but we know from experience Doyle is Andrew Luck ’s guy. We’ve got him projected for just 17% of the targets right now, and I’m heading into RG slack shortly to advise I’d take the over on that projected volume at closer to 20% with upside. That’s been the workload average this season in games he has played, and the matchup could push even more in his direction. He’s one of the top TE plays on the slate based on opportunity.
The Factor: Jack Doyle
The X-Factor: Jaguars DST
Washington Redskins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Washington Redskins Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 5 QB, WR, and TE, Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 TE Target % Matchup
Top 10 Sack % Matchup
Top 10 RushTD Ratio Matchup
Top 10 Plays Per Drive Matchup
Bottom 10 RB Bounce Rate Matchup
The Washington Redskins rank 20th in DVOA offense and have the 26th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 14th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank 32nd in DVOA defense and have the 31st-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 18th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Redskins have the advantage here, even on the road.
The Washington Redskins rushing attack is in a bad spot this week with the poor condition of their line. They rank #20 in rush success rate and have generated 30 explosive runs (ranked 10). They’ll uncork this attack against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense that is rank #22 in rush DVOA and ranks #6 in rush success rate allowed. They also rank #9 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position, and have allowed 26 explosive runs (ranked 16). Adrian Peterson has been afforded very little help in yards block before contact, and we’re seeing him get the job done very much based on his own skill. His 44 evaded tackles is rank #8 in the NFL. He’ll need to be evading tackles, as the Redskins will be missing multiple offensive lineman in this game. The game script figures to be pass happy, but Tampa Bay has been forgiving in terms of rush TD ratio once teams enter the danger zone. I’d rather focus on the passing game here.
In the passing game, the Washington Redskins would be in a strong situation for DFS if they had a healthy line. They rank #21 in pass success rate and have generated 25 explosive passes (ranked 23). They’ll be facing a Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense that is rank #31 in DVOA and ranks #3 in pass success rate allowed. They also rank #2 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #2 in points to the WR position. Deep threats are in a smash spot if Smith could get time to throw, as the defense has allowed 36 explosive passes (ranked 2) this season. Of course, Alex Smith is back from his one year vacation being Dan Marino and has once again returned to his usual Alex Smith archetype. He is below league median in deep ball attempts and his team features a plethora of sub-par deep threats like Josh Doctson and Vernon Davis. This is not where I think we want to be trying our luck with the Redskins passing game. Maurice Harris is coming off a strong game and is priced at just $3,900. Both he and Jordan Reed will line up in a slot position most often for this team, and that is where Tampa Bay has been extremely vulnerable this season. Based on the matchup factors and what we know about how this Tampa defense gives up production, it looks like both Reed and Harris are strong plays this week at low prices and running short target depths. It’s worth noting that Reed has been limited in practice with a back, and that puts the slight lean towards Harris here.
The Factor: Maurice Harris
The X-Factor: Jordan Reed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 10 TD Per Drive Matchup
Top 10 Pass% Matchup
Top 10 20+ Yard Pass Success Matchup
Bottom 10 RB Target Success Matchup
Bottom 10 Explosive Rush Matchup
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank 15th in DVOA offense and have the 6th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 8th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The Washington Redskins rank 25th in DVOA defense and have the 15th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 4th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. Tampa Bay has the advantage here.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rushing attack is in a bad spot this week, mostly because they are bad at rushing. They rank #29 in rush success rate and have generated 20 explosive runs (ranked 25). They will face the Washington Redskins run defense that is rank #29 in DVOA and ranks #4th in rush success rate allowed. They rank #24 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position and have allowed 19 explosive runs (ranked 28). It’s time to stop pretending like we’re ever going to play any of these guys. We aren’t going to, and I’ll just reference Peyton Barber ’s #66 production premium rank per PlayerProfiler.com as proof that Barber is simply bad by comparison to other backs in the league right now.
It’s an okay-but-not-great spot for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers passing attack. They rank #8 in pass success rate and have generated 38 explosive passes (ranked 3). They’ll be dealing with the Washington Redskins pass defense that is rank #19 in DVOA and ranks #29 in pass success rate allowed. They rank #10 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #15 in points to the WR position. Deep threats will be in an average situation, as the secondary has allowed 30 explosive passes (rank 16) thus far in 2018. Mike Evans is priced down to $7,000 on DK and $7,500 on Fanduel. He has a nice target profile, receives a fair number of targets, runs a ton of routes, and executes across multiple target depths. The individual matchup isn’t anything to brag about, but if you are a Fitzpatrick lover (as many are)… he’s the guy for me this week. I’m never going to be interested in Adam Humphries, and I’ll leave that to others to spin the roulette wheel on when he’ll score 2 TDs again. Hint: It’s never. Fitzpatrick is probably a better play than any of the receivers by themselves, thanks to the nature of the offense and the quality of his play (for fantasy) this season. He’s $7,600 on Fanduel, which is an attractive rate across all formats.
The Factor: Ryan Fitzpatrick
The X-Factor: Mike Evans
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Buffalo Bills Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 5 WR Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 Total Plays Matchup
Bottom 10 Yards, Points, TDs, and Plays Per Drive Matchup
Bottom 10 WR and TE Target Success Matchup
Bottom 10 Third Down Success % Matchup
Bottom 10 Rush and Pass Success % Matchup
Bottom 10 RB Bounce Rate Matchup
Bottom 10 Early Down Success % Matchup
Bottom 10 DVOA Matchup
Bottom 10 Clean Pocket Matchup
The Buffalo Bills rank 32nd in DVOA offense and have the 32nd-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 26th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The New York Jets rank 7th in DVOA defense and have the 5th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 9th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Jets have the advantage here.
The Buffalo Bills rushing attack is in a below average spot this week. They rank #28 in rush success rate and have generated 22 explosive runs (ranked 19). They will be up against a New York Jets run defense that is rank #11 in rush DVOA and ranks #24 in rush success rate allowed. They also rank #14 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position, and have allowed 27 explosive runs (ranked 12). Per the stat factors above, the Bills struggle on early downs and third down. They struggle with rushing and passing success. They have bottom 10 matchups in (only) yards, points, TDs, and plays per drive. Their DVOA matchup is at extreme disadvantage. They can’t protect their QB. They are implied to score 15 points at best. They are dead last with a negative double-digit game script rating per PlayerProfiler.com, and are projected to be trailing again. Why in God’s name would you play a Bills RB?
In the passing game, the Buffalo Bills are in a terrible situation for DFS. They rank #32 in pass success rate and have generated 20 explosive passes (ranked 29). They’ll be facing a New York Jets pass defense that is rank #6 in DVOA and ranks #23 in pass success rate allowed. They also rank #13 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #3 in points to the WR position. Deep threats are in a below average spot, as the defense has allowed 28 explosive passes (ranked 20) this season. The Bills are likely to start Nathan Peterman … a QB with no weapons, little experience, and no pass protection. He doesn’t even have a chance, and is an interception machine. The Bills rank third in sack rate allowed thanks to top rankings in blown pass blocks and QB pressure allowed. Best thing I can say about him is that he’s $4,000, and at that price you can accidentally have a day good enough to win a GPP.
The Factor: Jets DST
The X-Factor: Naked Nathan Peterman (NOT naked Zay Jones. That’s a whole other conversation)
New York Jets Skewed Matchups of Note
Bottom 10 Zone Block Success Matchup
Bottom 10 Yards and Plays Per Drive Matchup
Bottom 10 DVOA Matchup
Bottom 10 20+ Yard Pass Success Matchup
The New York Jets rank 30th in DVOA offense and have the 30th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 31st-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The Buffalo Bills rank 2nd in DVOA defense and have the 9th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 5th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Bills are actually at the advantage here on defense.
The New York Jets rushing attack is in a pretty ugly spot this week. They rank #22 in rush success rate and have generated 24 explosive runs (ranked 15) and will face the Buffalo Bills run defense that is rank #10 in DVOA and ranks #22 in rush success rate allowed. They rank #6 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position and have allowed 31 explosive runs (ranked 5). Elijah McGuire jumped right into a nice role in his first week back, and this seems like a spot where he might be utilized again. Crowell dominated the rushing work, but McGuire was the clear passing back in the offense. If the Bills continue to be stingy on early downs and force situations where McGuire’s services are needed, I can see the five targets he saw last week being the same or even a few clicks higher. It’s an ugly low total game, but if you must take somebody on DraftKings it is for sure the PPR back priced at $3,400. It’s a thin play at best.
It’s not a great spot for the New York Jets passing attack. They rank #28 in pass success rate and have generated 28 explosive passes (ranked 19). They’ll be dealing with the Buffalo Bills pass defense that is ranked #3 in DVOA and ranks #14 in pass success rate allowed. They rank #27 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #25 in points to the WR position. Deep threats will be in a low-tier situation, as the secondary has allowed 24 explosive passes (ranked 25) thus far in 2018. Josh McCown was terrible against this defense last year. A lot has changed for the Bills, but I’m not going to be falling out of my chair to get exposure. The possibility of a GPP winning squad is here though, with the most expensive combo of McCown and two of his WRs costing a whopping $12,000 (24% of the salary cap for 33% of the roster). If the Bills lack of offense keeps McCown in possession, and they find any success at all, it doesn’t take a wild imagination to envision a 300 yard game. McCown did have three such games in 2017. I’d rank the Bills defense ahead of the Jets in terms of probability, but the Jets passing game does have the higher upside.
The Factor: Bills DST
The X-Factor: Josh McCown + Robby Anderson + your choice of Quincy Enunwa or Chris Herndon
New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans
New England Patriots Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 10 QB Pressure Matchup
Top 10 Pass Behind Line % Matchup
Top 10 Early Down Success % Matchup
Top 10 Blown Run Blocks Matchup
Top 10 0-9 Yard Pass Success Matchup
Bottom 5 QB, RB, and TE Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 10 TE Target % Matchup
The New England Patriots rank 7th in DVOA offense and have the 7th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 27th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The Tennessee Titans rank 20th in DVOA defense and have the 12th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 7th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Patriots have the advantage here in a big way against Vrabel and the Titans.
The New England Patriots rushing attack is in a weak spot on the ground this week, but that’s not how they are built right now anyway. They rank #12 in rush success rate and have generated 34 explosive runs (ranked 7). They will face-off against a Tennessee Titans run defense that is rank #16 in rush DVOA and ranks #15 in rush success rate allowed. They also rank #30 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position, and have allowed 25 explosive runs (ranked 18). James White is one of the clearest examples of how the type of opportunity you receive can heavily influence your production as much as the volume. He was in control of a ton of targets (great for PPR scoring), and a huge percentage of targets inside the 10 yard line. He also controls a 34.5% of rushes inside 10 and hasn’t held that role for the entire season. The issue is that the price has risen dramatically, Sony Michel could return, and it’s hard to feel great paying $7300 DK/$7800 FD for a player we once got for much less in the same role. If Michel is out, the reality is that the price is pretty fair for a top-10 raw projected back for Week 10. If he’s in, we can’t really consider it seriously.
In the passing game, the New England Patriots are in a smash situation for DFS. They rank #3 in pass success rate and have generated 29 explosive passes (ranked 15). They’ll be facing a Tennessee Titans pass defense that is rank #24 in DVOA and ranks #17 in pass success rate allowed. They also rank #29 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #14 in points to the WR position. Deep threats are in a down spot by the numbers, as the defense has allowed 24 explosive passes (ranked 25) this season. Of course, nine of those explosive plays came with 15+ air yards in the direction of Malcolm Butler. On those passes, he gave up 309 yards and 5 TDs. We have Josh Gordon pegged as the most likely coverage assignment versus Butler with a head coach who willingly benched that player in the Super Bowl. I am literally tearing up thinking about the life-changing money I’m going to win with Josh Gordon on my roster this week. Hopefully, the Titans are foolish enough to let Butler cover Gordon one on one at some point, because you have to like that matchup if they can get it. I like Tom Brady too, as I don’t expect many rushing touchdowns from this team moving forward and I do expect them to score at least three or four this week.
The Factor: Josh Gordon
The X-Factor: Tom Brady
Tennessee Titans Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 5 TE Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 RB Target Success Matchup
Top 10 Pass Behind Line Success Matchup
Top 10 Blown Blocks Matchup
Bottom 10 Points Per Drive Matchup
Bottom 10 Blitz Pressure Matchup
Bottom 10 20+ Yard Pass Success Matchup
The Tennessee Titans rank 26th in DVOA offense and have the 21st-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 22nd-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The New England Patriots rank 13th in DVOA defense and have the 2nd-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 3rd-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Patriots may have the advantage here, but the fantasy options remain on the table for the Titans.
The Tennessee Titans rushing attack is in a tough spot this week. They rank #1 in rush success rate and have generated 21 explosive runs (ranked 22). They will face the New England Patriots run defense that is rank #8 in DVOA and ranks #10 in rush success rate allowed. They rank #15 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position and have allowed 29 explosive runs (ranked 6). The actual rushing ability of Dion Lewis isn’t the reason we’ll be looking at him as a chalk option this week. Sure, he finally saw over 50% of the carries last week and 15% of the targets. It’s that target number that we like against a top-10 RB target success matchup. I figure this offense to be heavily concentrated moving forward to it’s best players, and right now Dion Lewis is one of them. At just $4,600 on DK and $5,800 on FD, he’s underpriced for his opportunity in a game in which the passing work should be ample once the Titans fall behind.
It’s a come from behind spot for the Tennessee Titans passing attack. They rank #24 in pass success rate and have generated 14 explosive passes (ranked 32). They’ll be dealing with the New England Patriots pass defense that is rank #18 in DVOA and ranks #19 in pass success rate allowed. They rank #6 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #13 in points to the WR position. Deep threats will be in an above average situation, as the secondary has allowed 31 explosive passes (ranked 12) thus far in 2018. There are two very interesting plays here for the Titans. The first is Corey Davis. He has three games in his last six in which he has taken a commanding share of team air yards. He continues to pop in Josh Hermsmeyer’s “Air Yards Buy Low” model as discussed often on “Aggression to the Mean” here at RG. With huge opportunity in the offense, a game script that will demand the pass, and a price tag of just $4,500 DK/$5,800 FD… this is good chalk to me in every sense of the word. Marcus Mariota is also under-priced at $4,700 and is the second play for me here in the passing game. I don’t want to over analyze this witeh stats. He’s looking healthy and ready to prove he’s a lot better than his early season outputs would suggest.
The Factor: Dion Lewis and Corey Davis
The X-Factor: Marcus Mariota
Atlanta Falcons vs. Cleveland Browns
Atlanta Falcons Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 5 RB and WR Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 RB Target Success Matchup
Top 10 Pass Success % Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Pass Matchup
Top 10 0-9 Yard Pass Success Matchup
Bottom 10 RB Target % Matchup
The Atlanta Falcons rank 6th in DVOA offense and have the 8th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 17th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The Cleveland Browns rank 11th in DVOA defense and have the 28th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 29th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Falcons have the slight advantage here but it should be fairly even.
The Atlanta Falcons rushing attack is in a nice little spot here this week. They rank #25 in rush success rate and have generated 22 explosive runs (ranked 19) against a Cleveland Browns run defense that is rank #30 in rush DVOA and ranks #6 in rush success rate allowed. They also rank #2 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position, and have allowed 49 explosive runs (ranked 1). Tevin Coleman had a big game last week when there were zero indications that should be the case, so I figure he’s going to crap the bed in what looks like and excellent matchup. The one adjustment in his opportunity last week that is worth noting is the passing game work. If we are suddenly going to start seeing that, where his skills can be leveraged in the open field, I would feel much better about him as a fantasy back. Ito Smith has been slowly clawing away at it’s getting damn near a 50/50 split in rushing. The only way we can like Coleman in that scenario is if he takes command of a passing role. Last week, he did that. This week, the Browns have been stingy about allowing targets to the RB, and thus I’m lukewarm on the idea of running it back in an otherwise soft matchup for pure runners.
In the passing game, the Atlanta Falcons are in a difficult situation for DFS on paper. They rank #6 in pass success rate and have generated 34 explosive passes (ranked 6). They’ll be facing a Cleveland Browns pass defense that is rank #2 in DVOA and ranks #7 in pass success rate allowed. They also rank #9 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #5 in points to the WR position. Deep threats are in a nice spot, as the defense has allowed 32 explosive passes (ranked 9) this season. So basically, the Browns give up fantasy points without actually triggering poor DVOA metrics in the pass game. I’ll have to figure out how that works later, but for now all I care about is the idea that teams are producing fantasy numbers at times. Twenty-three WRs have more routes versus zone coverage than Julio Jones, but only one has more yards versus zone. Only two teams have more pass attempts than CLE in Zone (defined as Cover 2, Cover 3, Cover 4, Cover 6, Tampa 2, and Prevent). If the Browns want to avoid going to man to man with Denzel Ward on Julio (assuming Ward plays), I imagine the world of pain they will enter would cause them to rethink that strategy by halftime. Either way, Julio continues to be in play even at $8,300 DK/$8,700 FD for GPPs. His opportunity gives him huge upside regardless of matchups and coverage schemes.
The Factor: Julio Jones
The X-Factor: Tevin Coleman
Cleveland Browns Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 5 QB, RB, and WR Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Rush Matchup
Top 10 Clean Pocket Matchup
Top 10 Blown Pass Blocks Matchup
Top 10 10-19 Yard Pass% Matchup
Bottom 10 Yards Before Contact Matchup
Bottom 10 Explosive Pass % Matchup
The Cleveland Browns rank 29th in DVOA offense and have the 27th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 15th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The Atlanta Falcons rank 30th in DVOA defense and have the 27th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 15th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Browns get the edge at home.
The Cleveland Browns rushing attack is in a smash spot this week. They rank #2 in rush success rate and have generated 36 explosive runs (ranked 6). They will face the Atlanta Falcons run defense that is rank #31 in DVOA and ranks #3 in rush success rate allowed. They rank #5 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position and have allowed 28 explosive runs (ranked 10). Nick Chubb at $5,500 would be a better discussion if the think the Browns are not trailing in this game. Vegas thinks they will be to some degree, and that’s why we have to get excited about the 9 targets we saw from Duke Johnson last week under new management. The Falcons still allow the second highest rate of targets to the RB position in the league at 25.8%, and Johnson is priced at just $4,700 on DK. Assuming target volume that approaches anything close to 7, he would be interesting for tournaments.
It’s a pretty good spot for the Cleveland Browns passing attack. They rank #30 in pass success rate and have generated 30 explosive passes (ranked 11). They’ll be dealing with the Atlanta Falcons pass defense that is rank #28 in DVOA and ranks #5 in pass success rate allowed. They rank #4 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #4 in points to the WR position. Deep threats will be in a below average situation, as the secondary has allowed 26 explosive passes (ranked 21) thus far in 2018. Jarvis Landry should have a nice game here. The Falcons defense doesn’t lend itself well to big plays in the passing game, opting instead for production to fall in the 0-19 yard range. Landry leads the league in routes run thanks to some overtime games, and 85% of them are less than 20 yards downfield. He’s an easy fit on FD at a bargain $6,400, and still quite affordable on DK at $6,200. He’s a positive + RGVal on both sites.
The Factor: Jarvis Landry
The X-Factor: Duke Johnson
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 10 Yards, Points, and TD Per Drive Matchup
Top 10 Sack % Matchup
Top 10 Rush% Matchup
Top 10 Pass Success % Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Rush Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Pass Matchup
Top 10 DVOA Matchup
Top 10 Blown Run Blocks Matchup
Top 10 20+ Yard Pass % Matchup
Bottom 10 Total Plays Matchup
Bottom 10 TE Target % Matchup
The Los Angeles Chargers rank 3rd in DVOA offense and have the 4th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 13th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The Oakland Raiders rank 31st in DVOA defense and have the 30th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 31st-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Chargers have the advantage here.
The Los Angeles Chargers rushing attack is in an elite spot this week. They rank #18 in rush success rate and have generated 41 explosive runs (ranked 1). They are up against an Oakland Raiders run defense that is rank #25 in rush DVOA and ranks #20 in rush success rate allowed. They also rank #12 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position, and have allowed 29 explosive runs (ranked 6). This is an explosive rushing offense against defense that allows explosive rushing. Melvin Gordon continues to receive bell cow usage that includes a MASSIVE 42% share of team targets inside the 10 yard line. His price tag is finally catching all the way up, and he might be a tad overlooked based on sexier alternatives. I think he’s a fantastic GPP play regardless of ownership, and that statement only gets stronger the lower we can project his popularity. He comes at a high cost, so you’ll need another huge game if you go here.
In the passing game, the Los Angeles Chargers are in an amazing situation for DFS. They rank #4 in pass success rate and have generated 35 explosive passes (ranked 5). They’ll be facing an Oakland Raiders pass defense that is rank #32 in DVOA and ranks #9 in pass success rate allowed. They also rank #12 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #19 in points to the WR position. Deep threats are in a phenomenal spot, as the defense has allowed 35 explosive passes (ranked 3) this season. Both downfield passing threats in the offense are extremely low priced for the matchup, and that makes the whole stack attractive in tournaments. Mike Williams at $3800 DraftKings is way too cheap for that kind of target depth against this defense. Pairing with a low owned Philip Rivers would make a lot more sense if we think the game can stay close with the Raiders at home. I haven’t made up my mind there, but the 10 point spread ensures the passing game is much better suited for the GPP format.
The Factor: Melvin Gordon
The X-Factor: Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams
Oakland Raiders Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 10 WR Target Success Matchup
Top 10 RB and TE Target % Matchup
Top 10 Early Down Success % Matchup
Top 10 Clean Pocket Matchup
Bottom 10 Yards Before Contact Matchup
Bottom 10 WR Target % Matchup
Bottom 10 10-19 Yard Pass% Matchup
The Oakland Raiders rank 22nd in DVOA offense and have the 24th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 20th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The Los Angeles Chargers rank 15th in DVOA defense and have the 16th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 23rd-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Chargers have the advantage here.
The Oakland Raiders rushing attack is in a pretty good spot this week. They rank #18 in rush success rate and have generated 21 explosive runs (ranked 22) and will face the Los Angeles Chargers run defense that is rank #20 in DVOA and ranks #2 in rush success rate allowed. They rank #19 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position and have allowed 25 explosive runs (ranked 18). If the Raiders do have any kind of chance to stay in this game, I bet it would come through a grinder-like attack via the run game. Doug Martin figures to have a better matchup this week than what he has seen since assuming lead duty, though we can’t really rely on a back that gets 3% of targets seriously in DFS. Our best bet is to fade this situation, but hope they succeed anyway so we can sprinkle in some Chargers.
It’s a middle of the road spot for the Oakland Raiders passing attack. They rank #10 in pass success rate and have generated 30 explosive passes (ranked 11). They’ll be dealing with the Los Angeles Chargers pass defense that is rank #13 in DVOA and ranks #15 in pass success rate allowed. They rank #18 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #23 in points to the WR position. Deep threats will be in a sneaky situation, as the secondary has allowed 33 explosive passes (ranked 6) thus far in 2018. I wouldn’t trust the opportunity for any of these WRs, and barely trust it for TE Jared Cook. He’s proven to be a big time part of this attack, and this is a top 10 TE target percentage matchup by the numbers. Cook is expensive on Draftkings, but on Fanduel at $5,500 I would consider him a part of the mix for GPPs.
The Factor: Jared Cook
The X-Factor: Chargers DST
Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers
Miami Dolphins Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 10 Yards Before Contact Matchup
Top 10 WR Target % Matchup
Top 10 20+ Yard Pass % Matchup
Bottom 5 TE Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 10 QB Pressure Matchup
Bottom 10 Plays Per Drive Matchup
Bottom 10 Explosive Rush % Matchup
Bottom 10 Blown Run Blocks Matchup
The Miami Dolphins rank 17th in DVOA offense and have the 28th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 28th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The Green Bay Packers rank 24th in DVOA defense and have the 18th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 11th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The matchup is hard to gauge, but I’ll lean Green Bay playing at home and favored.
The Miami Dolphins rushing attack is in a beatable spot this week. They rank #16 in rush success rate and have generated 19 explosive runs (ranked 27). They’ll be up against a Green Bay Packers run defense that is rank #26 in rush DVOA and ranks #11 in rush success rate allowed. They also rank #20 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position, and have allowed 24 explosive runs (ranked 20). Kenyan Drake is getting hurt by his inability to pass protect, causing Frank Gore to steal snaps. Drake is well above average in “Production Premium” per PlayerProfiler.com, ranking 22nd in the metric and displaying clearly that his lack of playing time is not related to his on-field efficiency at all. For this reason, he’s just a dart throw GPP type of guy that you can’t bank on for opportunity. If he ever gets it, he should have a real chance to explode… I don’t think we see that this week.
In the passing game, the Miami Dolphins are in a neutral situation for DFS. They rank #22 in pass success rate and have generated 22 explosive passes (ranked 27). They’ll be facing a Green Bay Packers pass defense that is rank #21 in DVOA and ranks #26 in pass success rate allowed. They also rank #23 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #12 in points to the WR position. Deep threats are in a neutral spot, as the defense has allowed 30 explosive passes (ranked 16) this season. We need a lot better than a neutral spot to go crazy with Dolphins pass catchers. I’m not going to say the name of the guy who rhymes with Gigante Larker and sucks a lot, but by the numbers said uber-jabroni is an Air-Yards buy low guy who could for sure have a big game. That one is for you, and not one I’ll be invested in… but it’s on the table nonetheless.
The Factor: None
The X-Factor: None
Green Bay Packers Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 5 RB Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 Yards Per Drive Matchup
Top 10 Yards Before Contact Matchup
Top 10 RB Bounce Rate Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Pass Matchup
The Green Bay Packers rank 9th in DVOA offense and have the 5th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 30th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The Miami Dolphins rank 19th in DVOA defense and have the 24th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 6th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Packers have the advantage here.
The Green Bay Packers rushing attack is in a decent spot this week. They rank #8 in rush success rate and have generated 27 explosive runs (ranked 12) and will face the Miami Dolphins run defense that is rank #17 in DVOA and ranks #26 in rush success rate allowed. They rank #3 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position and have allowed 32 explosive runs (ranked 4). It’s a nice spot for Aaron Jones if he could stay on the field. He played 62% and 58% of snaps in the past two games, and that is a lot closer to where we want to be with him. The next big step in his ascension would be a bigger role in the receiving game. If we can start to get that, we’re looking at DFS viable back even at like 55% of carries. Last week he saw 10% of targets, so we are at least headed in the right direction. This is a pretty good matchup for him a pure runner, and at $5,000 on DK he’s a pivot play in GPPs to some much chalkier options in the price range.
It’s a decent spot for the Green Bay Packers passing attack. They rank #25 in pass success rate and have generated 33 explosive passes (ranked 7). They’ll be dealing with the Miami Dolphins pass defense that is rank #23 in DVOA and ranks #16 in pass success rate allowed. They rank #21 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #18 in points to the WR position. Deep threats will be in a nice situation, as the secondary has allowed 33 explosive passes (ranked 6) thus far in 2018. With the elimination of Geronimo Allison from the rotation, the winner of the tall-rookie WR lottery conducted by the Packers this offseason is Marquez Valdes-Scantling. All he’s done since the start of preseason is ball out beyond their expectations and earn the starting number two job just past the halfway mark with the help of WR attrition (including Aaron Rodger’s injured BFF Jake Kumerow, a name I’d be stunned if we didn’t hear about someday down the line). MVS is $5,000 on DK and projected for around 7 targets. With 31% of those targets coming deep downfield and an aDOT over 12, MVS can easily get to value if he converts four of the targets into receptions.
The Factor: Marquez Valdes-Scantling
The X-Factor: Aaron Jones
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
Seattle Seahawks Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 10 TE Target % Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Pass % Matchup
Top 10 20+ Yard Pass Success Matchup
Top 10 10-19 Yard Pass Success Matchup
Bottom 10 WR Target % Matchup
Bottom 10 RB Target Success Matchup
Bottom 10 QB Pressure Matchup
Bottom 10 Pass Success % Matchup
The Seattle Seahawks rank 16th in DVOA offense and have the 20th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 12th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The Los Angeles Rams rank 16th in DVOA defense and have the 3rd-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 13th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Rams have the small advantage here but it’s fairly neutral.
The Seattle Seahawks rushing attack is in a pretty nice spot this week. They rank #15 in rush success rate and have generated 27 explosive runs (ranked 12) against a Los Angeles Rams run defense that is rank #24 in rush DVOA and ranks #5 in rush success rate allowed. They also rank #16 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position, and have allowed 27 explosive runs (ranked 12). Chris Carson won’t likely be in play, and the game script could be poor for Mike Davis depending on how things shake out on Sunday. Last time Carson missed, Davis was given over 62% of the carries. He also had over 16% of targets and 31 Draftkings points against Arizona. If the Seahawks can stay in this game – which I don’t feel is an unreasonable proposition – Mike Davis is probably the best play that nobody will play assuming Carson is out.
In the passing game, the Seattle Seahawks are in a dangerous situation for DFS. They rank #26 in pass success rate and have generated 24 explosive passes (ranked 25). They’ll be facing a Los Angeles Rams pass defense that is rank 12th in DVOA and ranks 25th in pass success rate allowed. They also rank #17 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #11 in points to the WR position. Deep threats are in a sneaky spot though, as the defense has allowed 34 explosive passes (ranked 4) this season. So the issue here is that you’d like Russell Wilson to have time to find Tyler Lockett and David Moore deep downfield. The Rams will have other ideas of course, as they are the top QB pressure rate team in the NFL and that a surprise to nobody given their players. I expect the Seahawks to be selective when taking shots, and probably successful given how good Russ has been through the years downfield. For this reason, I think you can stack this game in several ways, with one being a Gurley + Rams sack fest and the other being use of the Rams passing game returned back with a deep threat like Lockett or Moore. In either case, we need to be aware of the boom/bust potential of the Rams D. If they don’t get home, expect the deep ball in Marcus Peters direction.
The Factor: Mike Davis
The X-Factor: Tyler Lockett / David Moore / Rams D as discussed
Los Angeles Rams Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 10 WR Target Success Matchup
Top 10 WR Target % Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Rush Matchup
Top 10 Blown Run Blocks Matchup
Top 10 Blown Blocks Matchup
Bottom 5 QB and TE Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 10 TE Target Success Matchup
Bottom 10 20+ Yard Pass Success Matchup
The Los Angeles Rams rank 2nd in DVOA offense and have the 1st-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 25th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The Seattle Seahawks rank 5th in DVOA defense and have the 20th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 19th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Rams have the advantage here as big home favorites.
The Los Angeles Rams rushing attack is in a WHO CARES spot this week. They rank #26 in rush success rate and have generated 37 explosive runs (ranked 5) and will face the Seattle Seahawks run defense that is rank #15 in DVOA and ranks #19 in rush success rate allowed. They rank #22 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position and have allowed 29 explosive runs (ranked 6). I say who cares because you are playing Todd Gurley no matter how I describe the matchup. In this case, we have no major reason to fade him so let’s all hold hands and continue to watch this magical season with #30 on our side. The high value opportunity continues to outclass the league by a mile.
It’s a lower end spot for the Los Angeles Rams passing attack by the numbers. They rank #5 in pass success rate and have generated 46 explosive passes (rank 1). They’ll be dealing with the Seattle Seahawks pass defense that is rank #5 in DVOA and ranks #12 in pass success rate allowed. They rank #31 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #22 in points to the WR position. Deep threats will be in an unfavorable situation, as the secondary has allowed 25 explosive passes (ranked 23) thus far in 2018. The Rams will likely be unable to march up and down the field with the same level of ease this week via the air, but there is still a good chance somebody produces here. The WR vs. CB matchup chart favors Cooper Kupp here, and that makes sense in the slot against Coleman and a team that is relatively stingy when it comes to the big play. Kupp is a GPP play who is the same price on both sites, which means he’s a better price on FanDuel but also tends to play better on the full PPR scoring of DraftKings. I’d only be using this in a game stack the way it looks right now, and banking on a high scoring divisional affair. That makes Goff the best passing game play here, with just a $6,100 price on DK and 4 TD upside.
The Factor: Todd Gurley
The X-Factor: Jared Goff
Comments
Great info, thanks Chris!