Stat Factors: Week 14
NFL Advanced Data is more accessible than ever, and with the power of providers like Sports Info Solutions and PlayerProfiler.com, RotoGrinders is here to bring them to your doorstep. Each week, Stat Factors will compare 99 team level metrics and hundreds more advanced player level analytics to bring you key “Stat Factors” that matter for each game. We’ll then break them down and teach you how to empower your decision making for the week using these factors. The best DFS players in the world supplement their process with sports analytics, and we’re here to help you enhance your week of research.
Week 14
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Oakland Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 10 DVOA Matchup
Top 5 TE Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 TD and Points Per Drive Matchup
Top 10 Third Down Success % Matchup
Top 10 Clean Pocket, QB Pressure, and Sack % Matchup
Top 10 Blown Blocks (Run and Pass) Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Pass Matchup
Top 10 WR Target % Matchup
Top 10 TE Target Success Matchup
Top 10 Pass Behind Line % Matchup
Top 10 Gap Block Success Matchup
Bottom 10 RB Target % Matchup
Bottom 10 0-9 Yard Pass % Matchup
Pittsburgh carries a status as 10 point favorites into Oakland, where they will be at the theoretical advantage against a weak Raiders defense.
The absence of James Connor should open up the opportunity odds in a big way for Jaylen Samuels and to a lesser extent Stevan Ridley. The score of the game will have the greatest impact on touches in my opinion, as Ridley will be more likely to take you where you want to go in GPPs if the game gets out of hand quickly. On the road, that isn’t as likely. That leaves Samuels with fair expectations of 40 percent of the rushing and perhaps 5-6 targets. At close to the minimum salary on FanDuel and just $3,700 on the more favorable PPR scoring of DraftKings, Samuels looks like a fine play based on opportunity alone. The Raiders also have the 31st ranked rush DVOA defense and the 11th most fantasy points to running backs throughout the season. The matchup is even better than the opportunity, and the only two obstacles in your way of rostering him are game theory and opportunity cost.
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