Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds, Prediction & Pick
Steelers vs. Raiders Odds
| Steelers Odds | +3 |
| Raiders Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 43.5 |
| Date | Sun, Sep. 24 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
Sunday’s 13-game NFL slate will conclude with a matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. Kickoff is set for 8:20 ET on NBC.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Raiders as 3-point favorites on the spread in this matchup. The total for this contest is set at over/under 43.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Pittsburgh Steelers
What to expect from Kenny Pickett
Kenny Pickett has been underwhelming to start his NFL career to say the least. However, he has averaged 227 passing yards per game through the first two weeks of 2023 and has an incredibly favorable matchup in Week 3. Last season, Pickett had a passer rating 19.1 points higher from a clean pocket than he did under pressure, and his yards per attempt were 1.3 yards higher in such situations. Tonight, he will get to face an extremely weak Las Vegas defense, which could yield one of his best games as a professional to date.
Can Pittsburgh’s defense help them get a road victory?
In Week 2, the Steelers had the 9th-best pressure rate of any defense in the NFL. They sacked Deshaun Watson six times and forced four turnovers in a narrow 26-22 victory. Though turnovers are often derided as a luck metric, it should go without saying that a team consistently gives themselves a better opportunity to “get lucky” when they are putting the opposing quarterback under pressure and forcing plays to finish outside of their intended structure.
The primary concern for this group tonight is potential fatigue. On Monday, this unit played 81 snaps in a physical football game against the Cleveland Browns. Playing on a short week, it will be worth monitoring the stamina of players like TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith as this game gets into the second half.
Las Vegas Raiders
How good is Jimmy Garoppolo?
This season, Jimmy Garoppolo has a 76.7% completion percentage and has averaged 7.9 yards per attempt from a clean pocket. However, he has only a 42.9% completion rate and has only averaged 6.6 yards per attempt when under pressure. His splits from a clean pocket compared to his numbers under pressure had an even starker split last year when he was with the San Francisco 49ers.
Simply, Garoppolo is a signal caller who will take care of the football and perform adequately when there is structure around him and he is not asked to be a hero. If he is flushed from the pocket and needs to extend a play, things get dicier. Facing a talented Pittsburgh pass rush in Week 3, it is more likely that we see the less desirable version of Garoppolo than the guy who looks like a franchise cornerstone.
Lack of defensive pressure for Raiders’ defense
In Week 1, the Las Vegas defense ranked 25th out of 32 teams in pressure rate. In Week 2, the Raiders’ defense ranked 26th out of 32 teams in pressure rate. Defensive end Chandler Jones was officially placed on the non-football illness list, which will keep him out for a minimum of four more contests. His absence has been a major factor for this unit, which has generated only two quarterback hits and 16 hurries through two weeks of action. Other than Maxx Crosby, there is nobody on this side of the ball who is consistently able to get into the opponent’s backfield.
Las Vegas has also allowed 4.9 yards per carry so far this fall, which ranks 27th. Opposing quarterbacks have completed a league-high 81.7% of their pass attempts against the Raiders’ secondary unit while throwing for five touchdowns without an interception. Simply, there are not many ways that the Raiders are making life difficult for opposing offenses right now, and that is unlikely to change on Sunday Night Football, even in what may seem to be a favorable matchup on the surface.
Steelers vs. Raiders – Picks & Predictions
Both of these offenses have major question marks at quarterback. However, Pittsburgh’s defense is playing on a short week after being on the field for 81 plays against Cleveland. Las Vegas has not shown any ability to get after the quarterback on a consistent basis to begin 2023. Both of these defenses have also been vulnerable on the ground, which means that these offenses should be in good position to convert short-yardage situations in this game. Do not bet the house, but we could be in store for a rare high-scoring Sunday Night Football game.
PICK: Over 43.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)