Sunday Night Football Picks: Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds & Predictions
Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds
| Chiefs Odds | -3 |
| Raiders Odds | +3 |
| Over/Under | 52.5 |
| Date | Sunday, Nov 14 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Tonight, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Las Vegas Raiders will battle on Sunday Night Football at Allegiant Stadium. Kansas City enters play in this one having won two games in a row following an embarrassing 27-3 loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 7. Las Vegas remains tied for the AFC West division lead through eight games. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair between these two teams, pricing Kansas City as a field goal favorite on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks before Sunday Night Football kicks off.
Kansas City Chiefs -3
Since the beginning of the season, we have continued to emphasize the poor play of Patrick Mahomes to warn bettors that this is not the same version of the Chiefs that has been to back-to-back Super Bowls. Last week, Mahomes threw for a pedestrian 166 yards on 37 attempts in a win over a Green Bay Packers team that was decimated by injuries and COVID-issues. On the season, Mahomes ranks only 15th in QBR amongst qualified signal callers and has 10 interceptions, which ranks 31st in the league. The most concerning aspect of Mahomes’ struggles are that they are mostly self-inflicted. The Chiefs have one of the best offensive lines in football, if not the best offensive line in football. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are two of the most elite pass-catchers that a quarterback could hope to have on his team. On Sunday Night Football, the biggest question mark for Kansas City’s offensive attack continues to be the play of their 503 million dollar man.
Defensively, the Chiefs are one of the worst teams in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks have torched Kansas City for 16 touchdowns and a 99.5 passer rating this fall. Only the Los Angeles Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, and the Minnesota Vikings are allowing more yards-per-carry on the ground. Tyrann Mathieu is still a big name, but he is little more than a mediocre safety at this point in his career. Chris Jones has been good, but not great on the defensive line. The cornerback and linebacker units are completely devoid of talent. Bettors should not expect much from this defense tonight against a strong Las Vegas offense.
Las Vegas Raiders +3
It is difficult to find an organization that has dealt with more turmoil and tragedy than the Raiders this fall. Still, this team is in a fantastic opportunity to secure a playoff berth with a strong second half of the campaign.
Derek Carr has been far from an elite quarterback, but part of his inconsistent play can be attributable to poor offensive line play. Other than Kolton Miller at left tackle, there is nobody else that is even close to league average in pass protection, per Pro Football Focus. Alex Leatherwood and Brandon Parker on the right side of the line are not worth one pass blocker if one were to combine their efforts. Nevertheless, the vulnerability for Las Vegas on their offensive line should be mitigated tonight against a Chiefs defense that has only 12 sacks this season—the second fewest in the entire NFL.
Defensively, Las Vegas is marginally better than Kansas City. The Raiders rank 14th in opponent passer rating, but are similarly deficient against the run—allowing 4.6 yards-per-carry. Still, a mediocre pass defense could be good enough to compete for a win in this matchup. The Chiefs have shown a perplexing unwillingness to feed the running backs who they do have available, who have one of the best offensive lines in football to run behind. If Las Vegas can contain Kansas City through the air this evening with a two-deep safety gameplan, they could find themselves with an opportunity to win this contest.
Sunday Night Football Pick
Bettors should refuse to pay the Mahomes tax going forward. We have been urging bettors to stop paying the Mahomes tax at sportsbooks all season. Betting Kansas City tonight—a team with a horrendous defense, playing on the road against a talented division rival—is unlikely to be a profitable endeavor. Carr should have his way with a poor Kansas City secondary unit. The public continues to show apprehension betting against the Chiefs, but it is the smart play in this one.
PICK: Raiders +3 (-110)
Image Credit: Imagn