Sunday Night Football Picks: Colts vs. 49ers Odds & Predictions
Colts vs. 49ers Odds
| Colts Odds | +3.5 |
| 49ers Odds | -3.5 |
| Over/Under | 42 |
| Date | Sunday, Oct 24 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
The Indianapolis Colts and the San Francisco 49ers will battle on Sunday Night Football at Heinz Field. Though both of these teams have postseason hopes, this primetime matchup is likely a preview of two teams that will miss the playoffs in 2021. Nevertheless, oddsmakers are expecting a tightly contested affair in this one, pricing the 49ers as 3.5 point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Indianapolis Colts (+3.5)
The Colts opened the season with three consecutive losses, but have looked like a completely different football team since the calendar flipped to October. In Week 4, Indianapolis made easy work of the hapless Miami Dolphins. In Week 5, the Colts outplayed the Baltimore Ravens for the majority of the contest—leading 25 to 9 in the fourth quarter. However, a defensive collapse down the stretch resulted in a loss. Last week, Indianapolis dominated the Houston Texans in a decisive 31 to 3 victory.
Carson Wentz has quietly played excellent each of the last three weeks, albeit against weak opposing secondary units. In October, Wentz has six touchdowns and no interceptions, and is averaging 284.3 passing yards per game. He could find similar success on Sunday Night Football against a San Francisco secondary that has allowed opposing signal callers to throw for eight touchdowns against only one interception, and a 99.7 passer rating so far this fall. Still, unfriendly weather and a ferocious 49ers pass rush could cause Wentz problems if his offensive line struggles to give him protection in this one.
Indianapolis has arguably the worst secondary unit in the NFL. Xavier Rhodes, Kenny Moore II, Khari Willis, and George Odum have not done much to stop anyone this season through the air, allowing 15 passing touchdowns and a 111.2 passer rating through six games. The linebacker unit is also partially responsible for the Colts poor performance on this side of the ball. Even in a winning effort against the Texans, Indianapolis’ linebackers allowed eight receptions on 11 targets for 69 yards, per Pro Football Focus.
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
San Francisco opened the year with back-to-back wins against weak opponents, the Detroit Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles. They have not won since, although they only lost to the Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, and the Arizona Cardinals by one possession. The Colts are by far the weakest team that they have faced since Week 2.
Yet, it remains to be seen if the 49ers can capitalize on this friendly matchup. Jimmy Garoppolo will return to the starting lineup tonight after missing last week with an injury. However, he has been less than stellar this fall—ranking 19th in QBR, throwing for only five touchdowns in four games. Elijah Mitchell is likely to see 20-plus touches in this contest, but could find a lack of open running lanes against a strong Indianapolis run defense that ranks in top-10 in opponent yards-per-carry entering play tonight.
Defensively, San Francisco has an elite defensive line with Nick Bosa, D.J. Jones, and Arik Armstead. This unit should find themselves in the Colts’ backfield plenty of times in this contest against an inconsistent Indianapolis offensive line. Josh Norman is a vulnerability in the secondary, but the windy weather should minimize this weakness. The rest of the defense is serviceable and should keep the Colts’ scoring opportunities to a minimum tonight.
Colts vs. 49ers Picks
Per Dave Kluge, the weather for tonight’s game is likely to be awful, with some in the local media referring to the storm as a “bomb cyclone.” Wind gusts over 30 miles-per-hour are going to make it extremely difficult to throw the ball. A near 100 percent chance of rain likely means a lot of ground-and-pound from both teams. Both of these run defenses rank in the top-15 in opponent yards-per-carry in 2021. Bettors should expect a lot of punting in this one. Unless we see special teams or defensive touchdowns in this one, the under should hit with ease.
PICKS: Under 43 (-110)
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