Sunday's Studs, Duds and Optimal Lineups: Week 4

by Stephen Keech (SBK) Last Updated 2014-10-05 17:03:27

When the clock strikes 1 PM EST on Sunday afternoons, it might as well be Christmas morning. All of your flawless lineups are ready to rock, you have every excuse to bury yourself on the couch for the next six or seven hours, and it’s not totally frowned upon to be a few beers deep in the early afternoon. But there is still that one caveat that has yet to be thrown into the equation: the games themselves. Everything seems relatively predictable in the middle of the week and the outlook becomes clearer as Sunday approaches, but once the early games kickoff…brace yourself. A stringent research routine still goes a long way for those that put in the time, but some wacky stuff can (and will) happen each week in the NFL; it’s simply the nature of the game. With that being said, many things will work out as advertised; DeMarco Murray continued his red-hot start to the season with another big game on Sunday night, Aaron Rodgers/Jordy Nelson bounced back against a beat up Bears secondary, and Antonio Brown continued to turn his high volume targets into big-time fantasy numbers. Others will not; Donald Brown’s workload was significantly smaller than expected, the Saints offensive weapons needed garbage time to salvage their performances, and the Vikings top two WRs (Jennings and Patterson) combined for five catches (no scores) in a game in which the Vikings scored 42 points. Figuring out the NFL on a week-to-week basis is a tough task, albeit one we all enjoy quite a bit.

This column will highlight a few of the weeks best and worst performers at each position (Sunday games only), and will shed some light on the underlying circumstances which brought on success (or lack thereof). Let’s get into it!

Sunday’s Studs

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers – Coming off of a division game in Detroit in which he threw for just 162 yards and a TD, Rodgers pulled off a complete 180 and completely dominated the Bears defense. He finished the day with over 300 passing yards and four TDs, leading the Packers to an easy victory over the Bears in Soldier Field. Rodgers was extremely efficient with his attempts (22-for—28) and the fantasy point totals are somewhat surprising considering the Packers lost the time of possession battle by a wide margin (23:38 to 36:22 for Chicago). A portion of that was a result of some untimely Jay Cutler interceptions in the second half which left the Packers with good field position, but Rodgers deserves most of the credit here. His chemistry with Jordy Nelson was on full display, as the two connected ten times (on 12 targets) for 108 yards and two scores, but Randall Cobb was actually the team leader in receiving yards with 113 on seven catches (he also scored twice). The Packers inability to run the ball (56 yards on 18 carries, 3.1 YPC) makes Rodgers stat line even more impressive. This is a perfect example of why you can’t write off a guy that burned you the week before; things can change drastically on a week-to-week basis.

Andrew Luck – He was actually the most expensive quarterback on FanDuel this week, which kept his ownership percentage down, but Luck was once again fantastic in a game the Colts controlled through all four quarters. Luck was counted on heavily even with the Colts nursing a big lead, as Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw struggled to get much going on the ground (they combined for 79 yards on 29 carries). When all was said and done, Luck had racked up nearly 400 passing yards and four TDs on 41 attempts, good for a 9.6 YPA. Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton combined for nearly half of Luck’s targets against the Titans, but it’s very tough to figure out the Colts pass-catchers weekly with the number of viable options on the team. Luck has quickly risen to elite quarterback status, and he’ll step into another nice matchup against the Ravens in Week 5.

Honorable Mentions – Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger

Running Backs

Matt Asiata – The Vikings running game was extremely successful against the Falcons, and the Atlanta defense looks like one you’ll want to continue targeting this season, but that’s beside the point. Both Asiata and Jerick McKinnon ran very well on Sunday and each more than paid off their price tags across the industry, but the big difference between the two was touchdowns; Asiata picked up three scores from inside the 6-yard line (all rushing), while McKinnon wasn’t able to find the end zone despite averaging 8.0 yards-per-touch on 18 total touches. Asiata is an average talent at best, but he’s able to get what’s blocked, and he has had success around the goal-line dating back to last season. His yards-per-attempt numbers will consistently leave you wanting more, but the red-zone work was more than enough to keep his owners happy. Asiata had 20 carries for 78 yards and three receptions for another 22 yards, but McKinnon’s emergence will continue to eat into his week-to-week production. Expect him to come back to earth Thursday against Green Bay, but he’ll maintain value as long as he eats up more than half the workload, including goal-line touches.

DeMarco Murray – If season-long leagues were drafting today, I’d have a hard time taking anyone else with the top pick. Murray joined Emmitt Smith and Tony Dorsett as the only Dallas RBs with four consecutive 100-yard rushing games with his 24-149-2 line on Sunday night, and his name belongs in that group considering how well he has run so far in 2014. The Cowboys were reluctant to stick with the running game the past few seasons under Jason Garrett, which often times made them far too predictable. The way they controlled the time of possession battle early in the game was a big reason for the beat down they put on New Orleans, and it appears as if they’ll continue to rely heavily on Murray as long as he can stay healthy. Murray is far and away the NFL’s leading rusher through four weeks, and is on pace to barely break the league’s all-time single season rushing record. Let’s just hope his body holds up long enough for him to realize that potential.. I’m not confident it will, but enjoy the ride while it lasts. He remains a fantastic option next weekend at home against the Texans, who had a ton of trouble stopping Rashad Jennings (who is built similar to Murray) in Week 2.

Honorable Mentions – Frank Gore, Matt Forte, Lamar Miller, Justin Forsett

Wide Receivers

Steve Smith – Smith was among the league leaders in both total targets and red-zone targets heading into Week 4, but I admittedly wanted very little shares of him heading into his revenge game in Carolina. Regression is coming sooner or later, but Smith was able to put up his best game of the season with a 7-139-2 line on 10 total targets. I’m not one to buy into the “revenge” narrative, but it played in Smith’s favor this week. To be fair, his 61-yard TD in the first quarter came on a pass that wasn’t even intended for him; it bounced off the hand of Owen Daniels and fell directly to Smith, who didn’t have a defender between him and the end zone. It’s still a little hard to call his performance a fluke, considering he saw double-digit targets and made a fantastic catch (while being interfered with) for his second TD of the day. Smith’s price hadn’t climbed too high after three games and he’s still reasonably priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Week 5. He’s the team leader in every major receiving category and will likely remain the focal point for Flacco, but I’m still having a hard time buying in completely. I won’t be targeting him in cash games this week, but feel somewhat obligated to roll him out in a few tournament lineups.

Antonio Brown – He’s now on pace for 116 catches, 1,708 yards and 20 TDs, which outside of the touchdown numbers (he had eight in 2013) isn’t far off from what he did last season. Brown’s rise has been astronomical over the past few seasons and he’s firmly entrenched as one of the top fantasy WRs for 2014. His high-target volume and chemistry with Big Ben makes him a very safe play in an offense that likes to utilize the underneath routes, where Brown is extremely valuable. He finished with 7-131-2 against Tampa Bay on Sunday, and has now racked up double-digit targets in the last three weeks (he had just six with Joe Haden shadowing him in Week 1, but still managed to finish with 5-116-1). Brown is very sure-handed and makes some very impressive catches in traffic for a guy his size; expect him to remain a top five option at WR for the remainder of the season.

Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb – I’ve already touched on Rodgers, so we’ll keep it short here. Nelson is the clear top target in this offense, and for good reason; he’s got size, great hands, and his ability to separate from defenders is elite. He’ll remain among the league leaders in targets, receptions and touchdowns as the season wears on. Cobb’s emergence in Week 4 should help even out the defensive attention between the two receivers, since his touchdown numbers were the big reason he’d been serviceable through the first three weeks. Both of these guys caught two TDs in Week 4, and without a true threat at TE, they’ll continue to receive the lions share of Rodgers’ targets.

Honorable Mentions – Eddie Royal (again!?), Terrance Williams, Reggie Wayne, Keenan Allen

Tight Ends

Heath Miller – This was a very sneaky spot to deploy Miller, with the Bucs deploying a Tampa-2 under Lovie Smith. Dashon Goldson hasn’t been effective in coverage, and Miller had still racked up a respectable number of targets through three weeks despite his slow start. If you happened to stack up Antonio Brown and Heath Miller alongside Big Ben, your bankroll is likely trending upwards. Miller had easily his biggest game of the season with 10 catches (11 targets) for 85 yards and a score, tying Antonio Brown for the team lead in targets. His success will vary a ton week-to-week, but he’s a nice player to stream when the matchup is right.

Martellus Bennett – His stat line could have been much bigger had he stretched out an extra inch or two at the end of the first half (he was literally that close to a touchdown as time expired in the second quarter), but 9-134-0 is still a very healthy line for the Bears big tight end. Bennett saw five more targets than both Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall, and had four more then Alshon Jeffrey, but it’s tough to count on a single Bears pass-catcher with four very talented weapons at Cutler’s disposal. He’ll remain a force in the red zone with Chicago’s inability to run the ball effectively when they get in close, but this was a rare game where his catches/yardage totals were the key reason for his success. Bennett is one of the top TE plays outside of Jimmy Graham with the position thinning out due to injuries, so he’ll be worth monitoring closely in the coming weeks.

Honorable Mentions – Delanie Walker, Jimmy Graham (thank goodness for garbage time.. he did not have a particularly strong evening with a fumble and a few drops)

Defense/Special Teams

Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles pulled off the rare trifecta of scoring touchdowns on a blocked punt, interception and punt return (all of which came in the first half), leaving them as the highest scoring D/ST unit of Week 4. They weren’t a popular target with this game projecting as one of the weekend’s highest scoring contests, but anyone who took the plunge in a GPP had to be happy with that performance. Philly’s defensive front also sacked Colin Kaepernick four times, which was just icing on the cake. This unit is in play next week against the Rams due to their lack of offensive talent, but it’s still a risky proposition with the Eagles pace of play offensively and the many holes they currently have on defense. Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher are among the worst CB duos in the league (Brandon Boykin is criminally underused; he graded out as one of the league’s best slot corners last season but isn’t on the field much), and the Emmanual Acho/Casey Matthews duo at LB filling in for Mychal Kendricks leaves another big hole for St. Louis to exploit.

Miami Dolphins – Many more gamers benefited from the Dolphins D/ST success, since they were actually a viable option heading into a game against the Raiders in London. They not only held the Raiders to 14 points, but forced four turnovers and were able to turn one of them into a defensive touchdown. Continue to target the Raiders offense (with opposing D/ST units, of course) if you’re looking for safety in cash games.

Sunday’s Duds

Quarterback

Nick Foles – It was relatively hard to miss on the QB position in Week 4, unless you stumbled upon Foles. His fantasy upside was severely limited by the Eagles scoring three D/ST touchdowns, and he also appeared to be nursing some kind of injury (he was struggling to pull himself off the ground on a handful of plays). The Eagles offensive line issues also played a major role, but Lane Johnson’s return next week should help ease the pain for both Foles and LeSean McCoy. Without a doubt, Foles’ biggest problem was the time of possession battle (which was due in part to the D/ST touchdowns); the 49ers held the ball for 42:17, while the Birds maintained possession for just 17:43. That can happen to a fast-paced offense that completes fewer than half their pass attempts. Foles finished Sunday 21-of-43 for 195 yards and zero touchdowns, and he was picked off twice to drop a little more salt in the wound. Expect a turnaround in Week 5 against the Rams, since we know this Eagles offense is legit.. as long as their offensive line can get it together.

Jay Cutler – He wasn’t nearly as bad as Foles, but he threw some very untimely interceptions in the second half that cost the Bears any chance at a win. The game could have been much different had Martellus Bennett stretched into the end zone as the clock ran out in the first half, but Cutler didn’t help himself at all in the second stanza. His QBR on Sunday was 58.6, as he completed 22-of-34 attempts for 256 yards (two TDs, two INTs), which wasn’t what his owners were hoping for in what should have been a much closer game.

Dishonorable Mentions – Blake Bortles

Running Back

Donald Brown – Brown was among the most popular plays of Week 4, with the Chargers coming in as big favorites over a very shaky Jaguars team rolling out their rookie QB for his first NFL start, and his Week 3 workload suggested he’d be a focal point for San Diego. This was unfortunately not the case. After picking up an almost absurd (considering Brown’s talent) 36 touches against the Bills, Brown was limited to just 14 (four receptions) this week in a game the Chargers controlled throughout. He’s the only healthy back they trust right now, so it’s understandable if they want to keep him fresh, but I (and many others) didn’t expect him to see fewer than 20 touches against the Jags. Playing the fade on Brown in cash games on both FanDuel and DraftKings was a very risky proposition, but that strategy worked beautifully in GPPs. His contributions in the passing game weren’t bad (four catches for 35 yards), but his 10 carries for 19 yards was a killer for those that played him. With the Jets on tap next week, it’s really tough to count on Brown for a big time bounce-back.

Arian Foster – It was tough to figure out what Foster’s workload would look like after his missed Week 3 and was a true game-time decision heading into Sunday, but I don’t think anyone would have predicted that he’d finish with eight carries for six yards. He was able to contribute rather nicely in the passing game, picking up 7-55 on 10 targets, but it wasn’t nearly enough to salvage his day. He’ll remain a very shaky option next week (he reportedly didn’t suffer any setbacks, so it would be very surprising to see him sit next week), but the upside is there if you’re willing to take a risk in a tournament lineup or two.

Pierre Thomas – These Saints running backs are a very volatile bunch week-to-week, and Thomas was not a big part of the game-plan even with Brees and Co. playing catch-up all night. Travis Cadet’s usage certainly didn’t help, but Thomas finished with just four total touches (two carries, two catches) for 23 yards, and did not find the end zone. He remains a speculative GPP play with Mark Ingram out of the lineup, but Khiry Robinson will handle most of the rushing duties, and it’s nearly impossible to justify using him as anything more than a GPP punt at the current point in time.

Dishonorable Mentions – LeSean McCoy, DeAngelo Williams, Eddie Lacy (outside of the early TD, he had trouble finding any room to run)

Wide Receiver

Calvin Johnson – His health is clearly an issue and it had a huge impact on his Week 4 performance. Stafford looked his way just twice on Sunday, and Megatron reeled in both catches for a whopping 12 yards. Considering he’s the most expensive WR across the industry, his performance was a legitimate lineup killer. He’s still the most talented wideout in the game and I don’t need to tell any of you that he’ll bounce back, but this week’s performance was brutal.

Jeremy Kerley – Eric Decker was once again active for the Jets, but he was not nearly as limited as he was last week. This sent Kerley from a guy that saw double-digit targets in Week 3 to an afterthought in Week 4, picking up just one catch for three yards. He was clearly a high-risk play with Decker active, but for $3,500 on DraftKings, the gamble made sense. It just didn’t work out this week.

Michael Crabtree – With the Eagles outside corners being among the worst in the league, it made sense to deploy Crabtree in a game that was projected to top 50 points. He was nursing a foot/leg injury during the game and it hurt his snap count, but five catches for 43 yards wasn’t quite what we were expecting from him this week. None of the San Francisco pass-catchers did anything of note, as Kaepernick threw for just 218 yards. Better weeks are in store for Crabtree.

Cordarrelle Patterson and Greg Jennings – It was tough to feel good about either of these two with Teddy Bridgewater making his first NFL start, but it seemed like a good spot considering the Falcons’ defensive struggles. This looked like a game where the Vikings would be playing catch-up late in the game, but they had a lot of success on the ground and didn’t really need Bridgewater to do much with his arm. Jarius Wright was the big winner at the WR position for Minnesota with eight catches for 132 yards.

Dishonorable Mentions – Jeremy Maclin (he reeled in just 5-of-16 targets), Brandin Cooks, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones

Tight End

Vernon Davis – I’ll give him credit for toughing it out and suiting up on Sunday, but he really hurt anyone who played him at a reduced price tag (specifically on DraftKings). He wasn’t at all popular on FanDuel, since it was much easier to roster Jimmy Graham there, but his price tag on DK was mildly appealing considering the opponent and expected pace. He ended up leaving the game in the third quarter without having caught a pass, and he never returned. He’ll be hard to trust until his health improves.

Antonio Gates – There was a rather long list of disappointing TEs in Week 4, but Gates gets the mention here since he was more popular compared to guys like Greg Olsen, Zach Ertz and Owen Daniels. While two of his teammates crossed the 100-yard receiving mark, Gates was left out to dry with just three catches (five targets) for 30 yards. LaDarius Green’s presence didn’t hurt at all considering he didn’t see a single target, so we can’t blame him. Rivers targeted six different receivers (two of them were running backs) at least four times, so he spread the wealth around, and it just wasn’t Gates’ week. The Jags’ struggles with TEs made this a very appealing spot to deploy him, it just didn’t equate to fantasy success.

Dishonorable Mentions – Greg Olsen, Zach Ertz, Owen Daniels, Charles Clay

Defense/Special Teams

Atlanta Falcons – Yikes. We knew this unit wasn’t a good one, but 41 points allowed to the Vikings? With Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon carrying the load? Not to mention they were facing a rookie QB making his first career start.. just flat out awful. This is a defense you’ll want to target throughout the season, for similar reasons as we pick on the Eagles defense.

Carolina Panthers – This is supposed to an above average defense, but they didn’t play like it on Sunday. They were burnt by a few big plays early in the game, and the Panthers offense wasn’t able to get much going, which didn’t help either. Anytime a defense makes Joe Flacco look like he’s worth his yearly salary, they belong in this section.

Optimal Lineups!

FanDuel

DraftKings