Sunday's Studs, Duds and Optimal Lineups: Week 5

by Stephen Keech (SBK) Last Updated 2014-10-09 22:46:44

When the clock strikes 1 PM EST on Sunday afternoons, it might as well be Christmas morning. All of your flawless lineups are ready to rock, you have every excuse to bury yourself on the couch for the next six or seven hours, and it’s not totally frowned upon to be a few beers deep in the early afternoon. But there is still that one caveat that has yet to be thrown into the equation: the games themselves. Everything seems relatively predictable in the middle of the week and the outlook becomes clearer as Sunday approaches, but once the early games kickoff…brace yourself. A stringent research routine still goes a long way for those that put in the time, but some wacky stuff can (and will) happen each week in the NFL; it’s simply the nature of the game.

Week 5 was big for the industry in many ways, first and foremost with DraftKings running the $2.2 Millionaire Maker, which pays out $1,000,000 to 1st place. With a field consisting of over 90,000 entries, the margin for error was extremely thin. A good number of the chalk/consensus picks did not work out this Sunday, which made the “contrarian” approach the right one. Rashad Jennings, Reggie Bush and Kelvin Benjamin were under-priced and in good situations, but were ultimately three of the biggest disappointments of Week 5. Other things did go according to script; Peyton Manning and the Denver offense was firing on all cylinders (despite a less than ideal match-up), DeMarco Murray continued his torrid pace (although his fumbling woes also continued), and Brian Quick delivered in a great match-up with a weak Eagles secondary. Figuring out the NFL on a week-to-week basis is a very tough task, albeit one we all enjoy quite a bit.

This column will highlight a few of the weeks best and worst performers at each position (Sunday games only), and will shed some light on the underlying circumstances which brought on success (or lack thereof). I’ll also provide optimal lineups for both FanDuel and DraftKings, which will consist of all players outside of the Monday night game. Thursday night players won’t be discussed in this column, but they are eligible for the optimal lineup. Let’s get into it!

Sunday’s Studs

Quarterback

Peyton Manning – Especially on DraftKings, it was surprising to see his ownership levels so low considering how soft the pricing was. You could pair Peyton with either of the Thomas’ and still have ample cap space to fill out a strong lineup. The match-up with Arizona’s defense likely scared some people away, but this offense is nearly impossible to contain when they are clicking. Peyton was able to get career touchdown pass #500 (quite the milestone) out of the way early on a short out-route in the red-zone, where Julius Thomas corralled his first of two touchdowns. It was all systems go for the Broncos after that, as Peyton connected with each of the Thomas’ for two scores and finished the day with 479 yards, 4 TD’s and 2 INT’s on 47 attempts (31 completions). It was imperative to roster Manning with at least one of the Thomas’ to have any shot at taking down a large field tournament; the leaders in largest FanDuel and DraftKings tournaments ($1.5 Sunday Million and $2.2 Millionaire Maker) both rostered Peyton with two of his pass-catchers. If your looking for the ultimate combination of safety and upside at quarterback, here’s your guy.

Austin Davis – Davis was nearly able to lead the Rams to one of the biggest regular-season comebacks in history, but his fantasy owners have to be more than happy with his output on Sunday. Against an Eagles defense that lacks talent in the secondary, Davis was able to connect with 10 different receivers and threw for 375 yards and 3 TD’s without an interception. He did fumble twice, but from a $/point perspective, he was fantasy gold in Week 5. Brian Quick and Kenny Britt both reeled in touchdown passes from Davis, the latter scoring twice (including a 4th quarter score that gave the Rams a fighting chance). Continue targeting the Eagles with QB’s/WR’s, and both the Colts and 49ers have also shown us that this is a team that can be beat with a power running attack.

Also Receiving Consideration – Philip Rivers, Brian Hoyer, Jay Cutler, Tom Brady

Running Backs

Arian Foster – Just like the better Manning, Foster is currently on the 1st place team in FanDuel and DraftKings’ seven-figure GPP’s. He was just 0.8% owned in the Millionaire Maker, an absurd percentage considering his upside and plus match-up with the Cowboys. It’s easy to see why he was avoided this week; several other RB’s in his price range looked like safer plays with similar upside, and Foster’s injury concerns were still very real after Week 4, where he picked up just six yards on eight carries. Houston leaned on him heavily to counter the Cowboys game-plan, which to this point has been pounding DeMarco Murray into the ground and controlling the time of possession battle. Foster carried it 23 times for 157 yards and two scores, and also added two catches for another 15 yards. Along with the rest of the Texans offense, Foster is going to have some very slow weeks throughout the rest of the regular season, but he’s also capable of the GPP winning performance as he showed yesterday.

Matt Forte – The daily fantasy community still seems to view the Panthers defense as one of the better units of the league, but that belief has not held true to this point in the season. Forte had it going both on the ground and through the air, but his contributions as a receiver was the saving grace for his fantasy owners. He came into Week 5 leading the RB position in total targets and targets per game, which certainly won’t change after this week. Forte caught 12 passes for 105 yards and a score, and was also able to add another 61 yards in the ground game. If you spent up at the running back spot in cash games (or GPPs), this was the way to go. He remains a relatively safe option week-by-week considering his volume in the offense, but he’s priced as an elite RB and his inability to find the end-zone on the ground is still concerning.

Andre Ellington – It’s been an odd season for Ellington thanks to a nagging lower-body injury, but he flashed his big play upside Sunday afternoon in Denver. He converted on a five-yard touchdown run late in the second quarter (which is a great sign), but the majority of his production came on an 81-yard receiving score in the second half. Ellington made a few Broncos miss near the sideline and once he broke free, there was no one on the field capable of catching him. The play actually resulted in Logan Thomas’ only completion of the day (he replaced Drew Stanton, who was 11 of 26 for 118 yards), so things slowed down quickly for Ellington after the long touchdown. The shifty RB finished with the aforementioned two scores and 144 yards on 20 touches, making him among the top $/point plays at the position.

Also Receiving Consideration – Branden Oliver (he deserved a write-up, but no one benefited from his big day.. if you played him, post a link to the lineup in the comments section), Pierre Thomas, Stevan Ridley, DeMarco Murray, Justin Forsett

Wide Recievers

Demaryius Thomas – The Peyton-to-Demaryius combination was the way to go this week. DT came into Sunday as the odd man out for most of the early season, with Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas stealing the spotlight in the receiving game. That changed in a big way against Arizona, as Thomas spent most of his time away from Patrick Peterson and finished with a monster line of 8-226-2 on 16 targets. His 28.3 YPC was boosted by an 86-yard score right before halftime, and his day could have been even bigger if it wasn’t for a Julius Thomas chop-block which brought back what would have been another very long touchdown. #88 has an elite combination of size and speed, and it was only a matter of time before Peyton utilized his most lethal weapon.

Brian Quick – Quick was talked about quite a bit this week due to a very nice match-up with the Eagles secondary, and he delivered with 5-87-2 on nine targets. Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher are not nearly talented enough to act as the top corner on any defense, and Quick was able to take advantage with his size, reeling in two touchdowns with the Rams inside the ten-yard line. When you look at the Rams third-year receiver, it’s hard to imagine him not turning into a star in the future, but he’ll need more consistent play at the QB spot in order to realize his potential. Quick was a very strong tournament play on DraftKings this week, since he was one of the few players that were actually priced according to talent and match-up, which caused him to be under-owned (6.6% owned in the Millionaire Maker).

Golden Tate – For the second straight week, Tate took advantage of Calvin Johnson’s injury woes to turn in a 100+ yard receiving effort. The difference this week was that he was able to hit paydirt on a first quarter red-zone touchdown, something we haven’t come to expect from him to this point in his career. Following a defensive score for the Lions, things went downhill quickly for the entire team. Matt Stafford wasn’t able to deliver another TD pass, although Tate still was able to rack up enough yardage between the 20’s and finished with 7-134-1 on nine targets. The Lions are talking about holding Calvin Johnson out this week against the Vikings, which will leave Tate as the top option once again. He’ll receive more defensive attention, but he should approach double-digit targets yet again.

Also Receiving Consideration – Kendall Wright, Alshon Jeffrey, Travis Benjamin, Vincent Jackson, Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin, Justin Hunter

Tight End

Greg Olsen – Facing the team that drafted him in the 1st round way back in 2007, Olsen put forth his biggest game of the season, finding the end-zone twice and finishing with a 6-72-2 line on nine targets. Both of Olsen’s scores came from inside the ten-yard line, a place where both he and Kelvin Benjamin (ugh) are primed to succeed using their size. With the rookie WR unable to get much going against Chicago (3 catches and a fumble on 11 targets), Olsen was the beneficiary. His score late in the 4th quarter gave the Panthers a lead, and they held on to secure the victory at home. Both Olsen and Benjamin will remain strong targets with the Carolina running game lacking any type of explosiveness.

Antonio Gates – Julius Thomas could have easily found his way into this spot, but we already know how well the Broncos pass-catchers performed. Gates was somewhat of an afterthought this week with guys like Travis Kelce and Austin Seferian-Jenkins stealing some of the spotlight at lesser price tags, but the Rivers-to-Gates connection was on point against a very questionable Jets pass defense. There was some talk earlier in the week that the Jets might double Gates in the red-zone, but luckily for his owners, that didn’t happen. Both of Gates’ scores came with the Chargers inside the 15-yard line, and he had already put forth a monster fantasy effort just minutes into the second quarter. Unfortunately for the San Diego passing game, the Jets offense was putrid yet again and allowed the Chargers to turn to the run game with a big second half lead. Regardless, two touchdowns and 60 receiving yards (on four receptions) was more than enough to pay off his price tag industry wide.

Also Receiving Consideration – Julius Thomas, Rob Gronkowski, Tim Wright, Dwayne Allen

Defense/Special Teams

Philadelphia Eagles – The fluky D/ST touchdowns are keeping this unit relevant, although the actual defense played very poorly in the second half (as you can tell by glancing at Austin Davis’ stat line). The Eagles special teams unit is actually a bright spot, but it’s way too hard to rely on that production to arise with any kind of consistency. This will be a defense you’ll want to continue targeting with regularity (with opposing offenses, of course). Enjoy the production while it lasts!

Pittsburgh Steelers and San Diego Chargers – I couldn’t decide on just one of these teams, so we’ll pair them both together since they faced equally inept offenses. The Steelers defense was the riskier target of the two considering Blake Bortles looked primed for a breakout in his first home start, but that didn’t come to fruition. Instead, the Pittsburgh D/ST added a touchdown of their own and held Bortles without a TD pass while picking him off twice, and allowed the Jags to total just nine points. The Chargers defense was able to shut out the Jets, who played absolutely terrible on both sides of the ball. Geno Smith ended up getting the hook after an awful first half, but Michael Vick wasn’t able to fare much better. Vick was consistently off target with his throws and just did not seem ready to take the reins. Over the next few weeks at least, targeting the Jets offense with a D/ST unit looks like a very safe cash game bet with serious upside.

Also Receiving Consideration – Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills

Sunday’s Duds

Quarterback

Blake Bortles – It’s hard to get on a rookie QB making just his second career start, but quite a few respected fantasy outlets were high on Bortles against a very banged up Pittsburgh defense. His ability to throw the ball down field and add points with his legs made him an appealing play considering his price, but Bortles struggled to get anything going through the air and added just 14 rushing yards on four attempts. While he’s the fall guy, this performance was certainly not all on him; the Jags inability to run the ball plays a role, and the play-calling has still been rather conservative despite Bortles’ big arm. Brighter days are surely ahead for the 3rd overall pick, and that could start as early as this coming week against a Titans defense that just allowed Brian Hoyer to put up big fantasy numbers.

Ben Roethlisberger – Wasn’t this game supposed to be one of the higher scoring contests of the weekend? Both offenses were big time disappointments and Big Ben was one of many Steelers who failed to meet expectations. He was actually fairly efficient on Sunday, completing 26 of 36 passes, but he only found the end-zone once and owners were in need of a multi-TD game in order to get a solid return on their investment. The Jacksonville secondary is arguably the weakest in the league, so Big Ben missed out on a chance to pad his 2014 stats coming off of a big game against Tampa Bay.

Dishonorable Mentions – Matthew Stafford, Joe Flacco, Drew Stanton

Running Backs

Rashad Jennings – The most popular play industry wide was a MAJOR disaster in Week 5. It’s crazy to think about in a field with over 90,000 entries, but Jennings was owned by nearly half the field in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker; those entries were as good as dead about half-way through the early games. The week’s most “obvious play” did suffer an MCL injury that looks like it will keep him out a few weeks, so we can’t attribute this performance entirely to poor play. He also gave way to Andre Williams in the red-zone while he was still in the game, so his upside may have been limited regardless if the Giants wanted to keep his workload in check. The price and opportunity here was too good to pass up in cash games on DraftKings, which led a lot of people into a trap this weekend.

Reggie Bush – Even when Bush is the healthiest back in Detroit, they still find a way to limit his touches. To be fair, he did leave the game in the second half with an ankle injury, but it looked like George Winn was going to see a good chunk of the rushing workload regardless. Bush reeled in just two catches on five targets and added just 13 yards on the ground, so it was an all-around disaster for the former USC product. He was an equally frustrating trap to fall into alongside Jennings; the two were very popular cash game plays on DraftKings thanks to reduced price tags and the full point PPR scoring.

Dishonorable Mentions – Bishop Sankey, Montee Ball, C.J. Spiller, Zac Stacy, Chris Ivory

Wide Receivers

Kelvin Benjamin – For $4,800 on DraftKings, he was a tough player to avoid. The Bears secondary had just been ravaged by the Packers wideouts, and Benjamin’s mix of size and volume in the offense made him a very appealing target considering the lack of options in the Carolina passing game. He did receive a healthy 11 targets from Cam Newton, but only caught three of them 38 yards. To make matters worse, he wasn’t able to connect on a few red-zone targets and also lost a fumble, so it was an all-around disaster for the rookie receiver.

Victor Cruz – The Giants were a very popular team to target against an Atlanta defense that will likely rank towards the bottom of the league at the end of the year, but he wasn’t able to get much going this week. On six targets, Cruz was only able to corral three of them for 22 yards and did not find the end-zone. After a few consecutive strong efforts, it was surprising to see him put forth such a pedestrian stat line in a prime match-up.

Keenan Allen – The San Diego passing game looked primed for a big effort, and while that held true for some members of the team, Allen was not one of them. He caught fewer than half of his seven targets and totaled just 25 yards through the air, which led to a very disappointing fantasy effort. Branden Oliver’s explosion certainly didn’t help, but the Chargers controlled this game out of the gate and weren’t forced to rely too heavily on the passing game.

Dishonorable Mentions – Allen Hurns, Calvin Johnson, Andrew Hawkins, Markus Wheaton, Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, Michael Crabtree

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham – Graham’s injury was one of the worst blows of the weekend, as he was in a great spot against a Tampa Bay defense that allowed a ten catch game to Heath Miller just a week earlier. Before exiting, Graham had totaled a measly 2-for-36 on five targets, and was unable to find the end-zone. Graham’s injury appears to be a shoulder sprain and thanks to a Week 6 bye for New Orleans, he’ll have some extra time to recuperate.

Larry Donnell – After his huge 3-TD Thursday night effort against Washington, the Larry Donnell bandwagon was completely derailed against Atlanta. He was targeted just once thanks to some extra defensive attention, and finished the game without a reception. His target total was surprising considering he was one of the target leaders at the tight end spot coming into the game, but he’s now looked at as a legitimate threat by opposing defenses. Better days are ahead for Donnell.

Dishonorable Mentions – Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Martellus Bennett, Delanie Walker, Heath Miller, Jordan Cameron

Defense/Special Teams

Cincinnati Bengals – This defense is still one of the strongest in the game, but they came in as the lowest scoring unit of Week 5 against a Patriots team that was out for blood. It was a tough week for Brady and Co. after a disappointing Monday night loss in Kansas City, but they were able to come out strong on a short week and silenced the majority of their critics with this effort. I don’t expect to see the Bengals D/ST with negative totals too often this season, and they likely just got their worst performance out of the way.

Optimal Lineups For Week 5

FanDuel

DraftKings