Sunday's Studs, Duds and Optimal Lineups: Week 6

by Stephen Keech (SBK) Last Updated 2014-10-16 00:49:42

When the clock strikes 1 PM EST on Sunday afternoons, it might as well be Christmas morning. All of your flawless lineups are ready to rock, you have every excuse to bury yourself on the couch for the next six or seven hours, and it’s not totally frowned upon to be a few beers deep in the early afternoon. But there is still that one caveat that has yet to be thrown into the equation: the games themselves. Everything seems relatively predictable in the middle of the week and the outlook becomes clearer as Sunday approaches, but once the early games kickoff…brace yourself. A stringent research routine still goes a long way for those that put in the time, but some wacky stuff can (and will) happen each week in the NFL; it’s simply the nature of the game.

We had yet another Millionaire Maker run this week on DraftKings, and Week 7 will make it three consecutive weeks in which someone wins seven-figures playing fantasy sports; it’s crazy to think about, but it illustrates just how much the industry has grown in just a few years. FanDuel bumped their Sunday Million up to $1.75M, and they’ll reach $2M in the Week 7 version, so there is plenty to be excited about this coming Sunday. We are very much in the glory days of DFS!

This column will highlight a few of the week’s best and worst performers at each position (Sunday games only), and will shed some light on the underlying circumstances which brought on success (or lack thereof). I’ll also provide optimal lineups for both FanDuel and DraftKings, which will consist of all players outside of the Thursday/Monday night game. Let’s get into it!

Sunday’s Studs

Quarterback

Cam Newton – Joe Flacco looked like he’d run away with the Week 6 scoring lead among QBs, but Newton had a big second half against Cincinnati and took advantage of the full overtime period to lead all signal callers in fantasy points heading into Monday night. The big difference with Superman this week was his rushing totals; heading into Sunday, Newton’s highest rushing total of the season was 19 yards, and he hadn’t had more than six rushing attempts in Weeks 2 through 5 (he missed Week 1). Against the Bengals, Newton carried it 17 times for 107 yards and a score, averaging a cool 6.3 YPC. He connected with Kelvin Benjamin on a short touchdown early in the game, and found Greg Olsen in the end zone late in the fourth quarter for his second passing score of the day. Newton’s ribs had been a concern heading into the season (which was why he missed the season opener), but it appears the Panthers are starting to loosen the leash on their franchise quarterback in the ground game. The lack of depth at running back likely played a role as well, but fantasy owners have to love seeing this version of Newton set free. When he’s not picking up points with his legs, he’s a middle-of-the-road fantasy option. Up next for Cam and the Panthers is a road matchup with the Packers, who have defended the pass fairly well this season but have truly been a sieve on the ground.

Also Receiving Consideration – Joe Flacco, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr

Running Backs

Matt Forte – Pure PPR gold right here. Heading into Week 6, Forte was leading all RBs in targets by a fairly wide margin (42 total, 8.4 per game), and added another 13 targets this week (10 catches for 77 yards). He’d be ranked near the top of the WR pool in terms of targets, but when you add his 13-20 carries into the equation, he’s as safe of a cash game play as there is in fantasy football. Forte added another 80 yards on 17 carries, included two scores from inside the 10-yard line in the second half. Despite being among the top backs from a fantasy perspective through six weeks, Forte has only scored three total touchdowns this season, but that number will surely rise with his large workload. Forte has struggled some in his career with goal-line carries (part of the blame lies with play-calling and the offensive line), so it was really nice to see him convert a few short rushing scores (6 yards and 9 yards). If you are looking for a high floor (with a high ceiling) at the RB spot, this is your guy.

DeMarco Murray – Gio Bernard probably belonged in this spot ahead of Murray, but it’s worth noting how unbelievably consistent this guy has been so far in 2014. He’s now exceeded 100 rushing yards in each game this season, joining Jim Brown (1958) as the only running back in NFL history to start the year with six straight 100-yard rushing games. Murray did it against the league’s best run defense, which had not allowed a running back more than 38 yards in a game this season. The Cowboys offensive line also deserves a fair amount of credit, as Murray is consistently able to find lanes (and isn’t hit in the backfield very often) and make people miss when he gets into space. There was some talk that the former Oklahoma Sooner may have his workload managed to keep him fresh, but he led all running backs in Week 6 carries with 29. He’ll look to keep on rolling next week at home against a Giants defense that just allowed LeSean McCoy to top the 100-yard rushing mark for the first time this season.

Also Receiving Consideration – Giovani Bernard, Branden Oliver, Ben Tate, Joique Bell

Wide Recievers

Demaryius Thomas – Following his huge game against the Cardinals in Week 5, Thomas took advantage of a nice matchup with the Jets secondary and finished with a 10-124-1 stat line. Peyton’s most explosive weapon had a relatively slow start to the season compared to Orange Julius and Emmanuel Sanders, but Manning has looked DT’s way quite a bit the last two games; combining Weeks 5 and 6, Thomas has reeled in 18 catches for 350 yards and three scores. With Manning trying to break the NFL record for touchdown passes (he needs three to tie Brett Favre) this coming Sunday night, look for the fireworks to continue.

Andre Holmes – With Rod Streater out of action, Holmes has stepped up in a big way. He looks to me to be the most talented receiver the Raiders have, but no one should be surprised to see Oakland under-utilizing the minimal amount of talent it has. Holmes struck early with a 77-yard score from Derek Carr on the team’s opening possession, and added another big catch late in the second quarter to set up James Jones for a six-yard score. Carr hit Holmes for a six-yard touchdown of his own early in the fourth quarter, and the third-year wideout finished with 4-121-2 against San Diego. He’ll be a solid source of value as long as Streater is on the shelf, and has almost surely earned himself a starting gig regardless of Streater’s presence with two consecutive big outings.

Also Receiving Consideration – Brandon LaFell, Mohamed Sanu, Jordy Nelson, Steve and Torrey Smith, DeSean Jackson

Tight End

Julius Thomas – It’s very rare you see a prop bet like the one Julius Thomas had this past weekend. He was -175 to score a touchdown, an absurd line that no one but him deserves at the moment. Peyton Manning absolutely loves using his big tight end in the red-zone; Orange Julius has scored at least one touchdown in each game this season, and now has multiple scores in three of the Broncos’ five games. Especially on sites that price tight ends a good deal below the elite options at wide receiver (aka DraftKings), he’s a very solid play in all formats. With nine touchdowns through five games (the most by a TE in NFL history through five games), it would be very surprising if Thomas doesn’t break Rob Gronkowski’s record for most scores from a tight end (17) with 11 games left on the regular season schedule. The 49ers (Denver’s Week 7 opponent) defends the tight end position well, but Thomas is matchup proof at this point. He’s still fairly reliant on touchdowns since his catch/yardage totals aren’t anything to write home about (outside of Week 1), but scoring comes often when you play with the best quarterback in football.

Also Receiving Consideration – Jordan Cameron, Jace Amaro, Greg Olsen, Clay Harbor

Defense/Special Teams

Philadelphia Eagles – As an Eagles fan, I’m as surprised as anyone to see this unit ranked among the top-scoring D/STs in each of the past three weeks. The success in Weeks 4 and 5 was driven mostly by touchdowns, but it was a much different story last night. Eli Manning had been getting the ball out quickly in the Giants past few games, so the Eagles corners weren’t giving the Giants much space at the line of scrimmage and the defensive line was able to put pressure on Manning all night (to the tune of eight sacks). The Giants only turned the ball over once, but the shutout was enough to make the Eagles D/ST a premier GPP play.

Also Receiving Consideration – Detroit, Denver, Tennessee

Sunday’s Duds

Quarterback

Matt Ryan – It looked like Matty Ice was among the safest plays of the week at quarterback with the Bears coming to Atlanta, although it certainly didn’t turn out that way. Ryan and the Falcons offense has been much more potent when playing at home, and the Bears defense had really struggled to put pressure on QBs through the first five weeks of the season. That is still an area of concern for Chicago, but they did enough to rattle Ryan into some poor throws and the secondary was able to hold both Julio Jones and Roddy White in check. Dropped passes plagued the Falcons several times, so it was an all-around disaster for the Atlanta passing game outside of a long touchdown (on a swing pass) from Antone Smith.

Eli Manning – After throwing multiple touchdowns in his past four games, the younger Manning came crashing back to earth Sunday night in Philadelphia. Giants QBs were sacked eight times (Ryan Nassib contributed to that late in the game), and the pressure from the Eagles defense was consistent all night. Manning had success getting the ball out of his hands quickly in the past few weeks, but the lackluster Eagles secondary played tight to the line and didn’t allow the Giants wideouts to find much separation. Manning and the Giants will look to bounce back next week in Dallas, although the loss of Victor Cruz (in addition to a banged up Rashad Jennings) is going to make it a very tough task.

Dishonorable Mentions – Russell Wilson, Matt Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger, Teddy Bridgewater

Running Backs

Marshawn Lynch – Beastmode was anything but against the Cowboys defense, totaling 62 yards from scrimmage on just 11 touches. Dallas continues to do a great job controlling the ball with their own running game, with the Seahawks time of possession totaling just over 22 minutes (compared to nearly 38 minutes for Dallas). That in addition to an ineffective passing game led to Lynch’s struggles, since he did finish with a healthy 6.1 YPC (to be fair, more than half of his yardage came on one carry). Lynch is still arguably the most fun running back to watch, although his counterpart this past Sunday is giving Beastmode a serious run for his money.

Andre Williams – With his inability (or lack of opportunity) to contribute in the passing game, Williams is very touchdown dependent in terms of his fantasy value. Neither he nor any of his teammates were able to find the end zone Sunday night, so the plodding Williams was stuck with just 58 total yards on 16 carries. The rookie running back may get another chance to carry the load next week against Dallas, but he’s probably not worth considering in matchups like this until the Giants seem even the least bit comfortable letting him contribute in the passing game (which probably won’t happen at all this year).

Dishonorable Mentions – Eddie Lacy, Bishop Sankey, Andre Ellington, Le’Veon Bell

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones – He wasn’t a complete dumpster fire with four catches for 68 yards, but he dropped a few passes, and as the most expensive receiver on the board at most outlets, you needed much more from him. It’s no surprise he struggled when you take a look at Matt Ryan’s stat line, but it’s especially frustrating considering he entered Week 6 leading the league in targets and had a plus matchup with the Bears secondary (sans Peanut Tillman). Better days are ahead for Jones and the Falcons offense.

Victor Cruz and Jeremy Maclin – It’s easy to understand Cruz’s struggles for a variety of reasons, the most significant being his season-ending injury. Thoughts and prayers go out to Cruz, but his fantasy owners were left out to dry due to the Giants inability to move the ball. He had to deal with elite slot corner Brandon Boykin when the Eagles went to nickel packages on Sunday, another factor that led to his struggles. As far as Maclin goes, he also had to deal with some very strong coverage and had by far his worst output of the season with just two catches for 16 yards on a measly three targets. The Giants boast two elite corners on the outside, and the Eagles were finally able to get the ground game going with LeSean McCoy finally exceeding the 100-yard mark for the first time this season. Maclin will continue to be the top option in the Philly passing game, so expect him to bounce back when the Eagles return from their Week 7 bye.

Dishonorable Mentions – Wes Welker, Keenan Allen, Sammy Watkins, Emmanuel Sanders, Golden Tate, Roddy White

Tight End

Delanie Walker – Walker was a player I had a decent amount of exposure to, considering how poor the Jaguars have defended tight ends, but it did not work out this week. Charlie Whitehurst’s below-average talent obviously doesn’t help Walker’s cause, but they don’t call him Checkdown Charlie for nothing. He really struggles to move the ball downfield, which theoretically should lead to more looks for Walker. The targets were there this week (Walker led the team with eight), but he was only able to reel in three of them for 57 yards. His success is typically tied to his ability to find the end zone, which none of the Titans pass-catchers were able to do against Jacksonville.

Dishonorable Mentions – Heath Miller

Defense/Special Teams

Cincinnati Bengals – Maybe they just aren’t what we thought they were! And we let ‘em off the hook! It’s now been two consecutive weeks in the negatives for this unit, and both of those have come against offenses that we wouldn’t consider elite. Things don’t get any easier for them next week in Indianapolis, so avoid them until they start to show some life.

Optimal Lineups For Week 6 (Sunday Games)

FanDuel

DraftKings