Super Bowl Best Bets: Our Staff's Picks for Eagles vs. Chiefs
Who is Noto backing for the big game? What’s Chop eyeing up on Sunday? Check out the bets and picks our RotoGrinders experts are locking in for Sunday’s Eagles vs. Chiefs Super Bowl LVII matchup! Don’t have access to legal sports betting? Use our No House Advantage promo code to pick DFS Super Bowl props with a $100 sign-up bonus!
Super Bowl Expert Picks: Our Staff’s Best Bets
Notorious: Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 (+189)
The Eagles are the public side at the moment, but it’s hard for me to get away from them. Rather than betting on the -1.5-point spread, I’m looking for a better payout with the Eagles to win by at least a touchdown. They are clearly the better defensive team, ranking sixth in total defense DVOA and first in pass defense DVOA. They can also get after the quarterback, as they have the best-adjusted sack rate in football. Patrick Mahomes doesn’t get sacked often, but he’s been awfully limited since suffering the high-ankle sprain. The Eagles should have no problem scoring on the Chiefs and I have concerns about Kansas City’s offense. The experience factor clearly goes to KC. You could argue that the Eagles haven’t had to beat anyone yet, but I’d argue the Chiefs got very lucky to be where they are. Give me Philly by 6.5.
headchopper: Total – Over 50.5 Points (-110)
The Eagles will score, there is no stopping that. They only typically stop themselves due to game script. Philadelphia averages over 19 points per game in the first half this season. Now, they will face a team that should keep them aggressive into the second half, while also pushing the pace of the game up. In my opinion, the Chiefs are also going to score. The eagles’ defensive numbers look great this season, but breaking it down by opponent tells a different story. Against teams that were in the bottom 16 in offense this season, or had QBs who were backups (think Connor Rush), the Eagles ranked third in the NFL in EPA per play on defense in 13 games. Against teams ranking in the top 16 in offense this season, that number drops to 20th in EPA per play in those six games. I expect plenty of points in this Super Bowl.
beermakersfan: Total – Over 50.5 Points (-110)
These are two of the top three offenses in football, according to Football Outsiders Offensive DVOA metrics. They’re also two of the top-scoring teams in the league with Philly averaging 28.1 points per game and Kansas City leading the NFL at 29.2, so I’m expecting some serious fireworks in this one. The Chiefs have scored 27 or more in five of their last seven, while the Eagles have topped 30 points in six of their last nine. This number was bet up from the opener of 49.5 and has gone to 51 at a few shops, but I still believe there is some meat left on the bone at 50.5. I’ll also be looking at alternates all the way up to 56. So far, we’ve seen 54% of the tickets on the over with the money even higher at 62%. It should be an awesome game with two of the best young QBs in the NFL going head-to-head. Give me the Over this weekend in this potential shootout.
eys819: Patrick Mahomes Over 38.5 Passing Attempts (-117)
There should be plenty of opportunities in a really fast-paced game with Philadelphia. The Eagles were the fastest team in the NFL in neutral situations, while Kansas City ranked third. Mahomes went over 38.5 passing attempts in eight of 18 regular season games and finished the AFC Championship game with 43 passing attempts. He has also had at least 39 passing attempts in six of his last eight playoff games. It has been nearly a month since Mahomes suffered the high ankle sprain in the divisional round, so he should be nearing 100% health. He faces a tough test against Philly’s top-ranked pass defense, but the Chiefs should lean on their star QB in the season’s most important game.
ebeimfohr: DeVonta Smith Over 61.5 Receiving Yards
AJ Brown is typically the perceived alpha for the Eagles, but they really have more of two number ones with Smith and Brown. Smith actually had eight more receptions than Brown this year, for 300 less yards, but he really came on down the stretch for the Eagles. He averaged 85.25 receiving yards per game since Week 13, and has gone over this number in every game except two, which happened to be the two playoff games where the Eagles blew out their opponents & rarely threw the ball. He had 10 targets on 24 Eagles attempts against the Giants, finishing with 61 yards. Then, he had 36 yards against the 49ers, when Hurts attempted just 25 passes against the Niners playing without a functional QB. With this huge role (& talent), Smith is set up to smash this number in a game against a Chiefs team that is going to push the Eagles
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