Super Bowl Betting Trends: What to Know to Bet Rams vs. Bengals
Following arguably the most thrilling NFL Postseason in recent memory, the Cincinnati Bengals will battle the Los Angeles Rams at Sofi Stadium in Super Bowl LVI. The Rams are currently 4-point favorites and the game has an over/under of 48.5 points, per BetMGM Sportsbook.
As bettors begin their analysis on the final game of the year, let us take a quick look at important trends to be aware of before locking in wagers.
Past Super Bowl Results
| Super Bowl | Score |
|---|---|
| LV | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31, Kansas City Chiefs 9 |
| LIV | Kansas City Chiefs 31, San Francisco 49ers 20 |
| LIII | New England Patriots 13, Los Angeles Rams 3 |
| LII | Philadelphia Eagles 41, New England Patriots 33 |
| LI | New England Patriots 34, Atlanta Falcons 28 |
| 50 | Denver Broncos 24, Carolina Panthers 10 |
| XLIX | New England Patriots 28, Seattle Seahawks 24 |
| XLVIII | Seattle Seahawks 43, Denver Broncos 8 |
| XLVII | Baltimore Ravens 34, San Francisco 49ers 31 |
| XLVI | New York Giants 21, New England Patriots 17 |
| XLV | Green Bay Packers 31, Pittsburgh Steelers 25 |
| XLIV | New Orleans Saints 31, Indianapolis Colts 17 |
| XLIII | Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Arizona Cardinals 23 |
| XLII | New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 |
| XLI | Indianapolis Colts 29, Chicago Bears 17 |
| XL | Pittsburgh Steelers 21, Seattle Seahawks 10 |
Super Bowl Betting Trends
Cincinnati Bengals Trends
- Per EdgHouse, the Bengals are 13-7 ATS this season, and have covered the spread in seven consecutive contests
- Per ESPN, Joe Burrow was the 55th quarterback in NFL history to be sacked 50 or more times in a single regular season. Burrow is the first such quarterback to reach the Super Bowl
Los Angeles Rams Trends
- Per EdgHouse, the Rams are 10-10 ATS this season, and have covered the spread in two of their three postseason games thus far
- In 20 games this year, Cooper Kupp has cashed the over on his receiving yards prop 16 times
How much does the spread matter?
Arguably the most important trend over the last 16 years is that the outright winner has covered the Super Bowl spread in each game. As NFL bettors try to make sense of the current line at online sportsbooks, it is perhaps as easy as simply picking the winner of the game. Per Evan Abrams, the favorites are 35-20 SU and 27-26-2 ATS all-time in the Super Bowl.
Is the Super Bowl typically high-scoring or low-scoring?
In recent years, we have seen tremendously unpredictable game scripts in the final game of the NFL season. Last year, the total was over/under 56.5 points between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the final score totaled only 40 points–a game in which the high-powered Chiefs offense failed to score a touchdown. In Super Bowl LIII, the score was tied 3-3 between the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Rams heading into the fourth quarter, despite both teams ranking in the top-five in offensive yards-per-game during the regular season. In the history of the game, the over is 26-27-1 (there was no over/under on the market for Super Bowl I).
Who wins Super Bowl MVP?
Though it is often thought that the Super Bowl MVP award goes nearly exclusively to quarterbacks, the last 16 years have shown us that longshot wagers on the Super Bowl MVP to be someone other than one of the two starting signal callers can be a profitable endeavor.
In Super Bowl LIII, wide receiver Julian Edelman secured 10 catches for 141 receiving yards to win the honor. Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward have also won the award as a wide receiver since Super Bowl XL. Two defensive players, linebacker Malcolm Smith and linebacker Von Miller, have each won the award as well in the last 16 years. Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford will unquestionably be the two betting favorites to win Super Bowl MVP when the lines hit the open market this week, but there could be value in one of the other dynamic playmakers on these two rosters to cash a plus-money ticket for bettors.
Does tails ever fail?
Per Fox, tails does in fact fail. Last year, the opening coin toss was heads. However, tails has been the result of the opening coin toss in 29 of the first 55 games in Super Bowl history—a 52.7 percent hit-rate. Since 2003, tails has been the result 11 times, and heads has been the result 8 times. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out coin toss trends don’t actually matter. It’s a coin flip for a reason, and there’s no point in paying juice to sportsbooks by betting heads or tails. There are a plethora of Super Bowl props that are not nearly as negatively EV. If you’re really dying to bet on the Super Bowl coin toss, find a friend who will bet with you instead of betting with a sportsbook.
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