Sweet 16 Best Bets For Saturday & Sunday: Value On Beavers, ORU, Gonzaga
I don’t know if it was the time away from the NCAA Tournament that made me forget, or maybe I’m just this naïve every time the Big Dance rolls around, but in shocking news, my bracket is not perfect. Given the 8 vs. 12 and 11 vs. 2 seeded matchups in the Midwest Regional that we’ll see tomorrow, and the fact that this Sweet 16 has produced the highest average seed in NCAA Tournament history, I’d imagine your bracket is busted as well. March decided to double the dosage of Madness to make up for lost time.
The story of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament was the 15-seeded Oral Roberts Golden Eagles making it through to the Sweet 16. This is just the second time in NCAA Tournament history we have had a 15 seed playing during the second weekend. Yes Dunk City and Florida Gulf Coast were electric, but so is ORU behind Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor. Anyone have any ideas for another Kendrick Lamar remix? I was born in Tulsa and raised 45 minutes from there, so yes I am biased. But in this article I will make the case for why ORU will cover the 11 point spread and give Arkansas all that they want in the Sweet 16 (Shoutout to the 918), plus two more of my favorite Sweet 16 bets for Saturday and Sunday.
Let’s start with the Sweet 16 odds at online sportsbooks.
Sweet 16 Betting Odds
12. Oregon State +7 vs. 8. Loyola Chiago
When are we going to learn our lesson? How many times are they going to have to keep winning, and covering, before we fall in line and start betting on them? Everyone loves an upset team that keeps their torch lit longer than anticipated. At this point it almost seems like a Divine Power is at play. Oh wait… you thought… especially with the Divine Power thing… no I’m not… that’s not where this is headed. I’m talking about Oregon State, not Loyola Chicago.
Back in January I thought I’d fallen into a gold mine. Vegas simply cannot keep up with how bad this bottom tier of teams are in the PAC 12. Washington, Washington State, California, and Oregon State. Yes, Oregon State. This team lost to Portland. Portland went winless in the WCC. 10th place. Loyola Marymount, Pacific, Santa Clara, San Diego, none of those teams had trouble with Portland. But Oregon State did.
The Beavers also lost to Wyoming. Wyoming was better than three teams in the Mountain West: Air Force, San Jose State, and New Mexico. The best KenPom ranking of any of those teams is New Mexico at 290. Not exactly anything for Wyoming to be bragging about. Oregon State lost to the 8th best team in the Mountain West.
So can you blame me for acting under the assumption that Oregon State was one of the worst teams in the PAC 12? I started off 6-0 picking against those teams against the spread with this strategy. Gold mine. By the time the next week ended I was 0-7 in my last sece against the spread. I learned my lesson after I had touched the hot stove six times too many.
However, it doesn’t seem that Vegas or the public has learned their lesson, given the spread of today’s game. Oregon State started out the season 3-6 against the spread. Since then, in their last 21 games, the Beavers are an outrageous 17-3-1 against the spread. 85 percent!? To give some insight on just how rare that is, the greatest winning percentage against the spread for an entire season over the last three seasons was Navy this year who went 14-4 ATS, which is a 78% win percentage. In this stretch Oregon State has played more games than Navy’s entire season, and is winning ATS at an 85% clip. Unheard of.
The Beavers have won five straight neutral floor games between the PAC 12 and NCAA Tournament. Their opponents: UCLA, Oregon, Colorado, Tennessee, and Oklahoma St. Two are in the Sweet 16, one got knocked out in the Round of 32, and the two non-PAC-12 opponents are at home because Oregon State sent them packing. In three of those five contests, including the two NCAA Tournament games, OSU won by double digits.
Both of these teams play at a very slow pace. Oregon St. is 303rd in the country in tempo, which Loyola Chicago is 342nd, according to KenPom metrics. Loyola Chicago has not allowed a team to score over 65 points on them in 20 straight games, and has only given up over 60 one time in that twenty game stretch. I say that not to hype Loyola Chicago’s defense, which is undoubtedly exceptional, but to emphasize their slow pace of play being a huge factor to those stats. In Loyola Chicago’s last four Missouri Valley games of the regular season, their scores were 51-50 (OT), 54-52, 60-52, and 65-58 (OT). They can often lack offensive firepower without a consistent go to guy after Krutwig.
It’s no secret that the public loves Loyola Chicago with Coach Mosier, Sister Jean and Krutwig — how can you not? Oregon State is playing too quality of a level of basketball and has consistently beaten too many good teams lately for me to not take the Beavers +7 now.
[Bet Oregon State +7 at BetMGM]
15. Oral Roberts +11.5 vs. 3. Arkansas
It’s not very often that we get a rematch of a non-conference game taking place in the Sweet 16. It’s far less common that we get a 15 seed in the second weekend. In this unusual scenario, we get both. When these two faced off over three months ago, did you tune in to this game because you knew we’d be seeing both these teams still alive in the last weekend of March? I doubt it. ORU didn’t win a game against D-1 competition until January. And yet, here we are with the Golden Eagles having the top two scorers in the NCAA Tournament in Max Abmas averaging 27.5 and Kevin Obanor averaging 29. That’s a lethal scoring combination that has allowed the slipper to fit, and for Cinderella to go to the ball another weekend. Arkansas got the better of the Golden Eagles on December the 20th by the same margin that we see in tomorrow’s spread, 11 points. Coincidentally the Hogs were able to hold the leading scorer in the country in Max Abmas to that same total, 11 points. Abmas has not scored less than that total the rest of the season. In fact he has had 20 or more points in 14 of his last 15 games. I believe this ORU team is much better than the one Arkansas saw back in December, and I think it will show tomorrow.
Here is the issue Arkansas has at hand and what they have to defend. There is a 6-1 cat quick guard who leads the country in scoring at 24.5 per game. You must respect once he crosses half court because he has 30 foot plus range, shoots it 43% from three, 48% from the floor, and 90% at the foul line. That is Max Abmas. Then there is a 6-8 225 pound forward that averages 19 and 10, shoots it 47% from three, 50% from the floor, and 87% at the foul line. That is Kevin Obanor. Now to make matters worse, their coach, Paul Mills, is pretty smart and loves to set up their offense with an Obanor pick and pop screen at about 26 feet. Obanor is a big body that your point guard is having to cover over the top of, because you can’t go under any screen Abmas is coming off of, even at 26-30 feet. Then you have the nightmare of your big having to contain out at 30 feet where a hedge is a must. Right as the defending guard is getting off the screen and your big is lunging well past the 3 point line, is right when Obanor pops where he is so commonly open. Why? Well how often do you see teams run a pick and pop from 28 feet at the college level where you have to adequately defend both because they are threats to hit consistently from that distance and are the leading duo in the country? Oh, not that often, okay.
So you properly guarded Abmas. The hedge was textbook with the bigger defender as he wasn’t able to get off the three. Your guard was able to get over and recover in time to where Abmas wasn’t able to use his quickness to drive to the rim. And now you are rewarded with a 47% three-point shooter catching the ball open at the top of the key. A win? What’s happening next? Either you have your defender that was hedging sprinting back to closeout on a 47% three-point shooter, which as we know so many bigs do a great job of… Or you were forced to rotate with one of your guards out up beyond the three point line which has now created a 4 on 3 type situation for ORU. What are your other options? Switch. Great idea, let’s put a 6-8 plus post that you need his strength to guard Obanor, on the leading scorer in the country at 30 feet with Abmas’s quickness. Also you probably have a 6-3 or smaller guard on Obanor who can make you pay at the low post as well on a smaller defender. Long story short, this situation can be summarized as a nightmare that I’m sure will be keeping Coach Mussellman up at night.
Another concern of mine, Arkansas also has a tendency to have offensive droughts that can plague this team at times. Yes this team is clicking right now, and the team they were in January is not the team they are now in late March. But they lost to Alabama 90-59. LSU beat them 92-76. Missouri won 81-68. And Colgate had this team down 33-19 with under 4 minutes to go in the first half. Imagine if Jordan Burns, Colgate’s leading scorer at 17 points per game would’ve played well? He had 0 points at the time. Thankfully for Hogs fans, he didn’t, and Colgate had played 13 of their 15 games on the season against three different teams. They hadn’t seen athleticism like Arkansas, and Arkansas ended the half on a 17-0 run.
The difference is, ORU has, and they don’t shy away from it. ORU’s first 5 D-1 games were all away from home against Missouri, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. All 5 made the NCAA Tournament. They have seen this level of competition, this level of athlete, and they are not afraid. Maybe that’s why when we saw the Golden Eagles out to a 7-0 run, before Ohio State woke up and went on a 23-8 run of their own to go up 8, ORU was able to not be scared but respond and take back the lead by halftime. Then when Ohio State went up 4 and the Buckeyes had the ball with under a minute and a half to go, the thought was wow, ORU gave them a scare for sure but it wasn’t enough. ORU finds overtime and wills their way to a 15 over a 2 upset. Again in the Round of 32 all hop looked lost when the Golden Eagles were down 11 with under 10 minutes to play. Abmas and Obanor either scored or assisted on the last 34 points for ORU as they roared back to keep their tourney hopes alive. 34 points.
This team is not scared, they have been tested before. They can jump out to leads, and they can come from behind. They have two of the best players in the country that no one was talking about last month, but everyone is now. I look for Oral Roberts to cover the 11-point spread, and look out for the Moneyline at +425 odds. Maybe Cinderella’s stepmom will let her stay out until Monday (I don’t exactly remember the details of the Cinderella story)?
1. Gonzaga -13.5 vs. 5. Creighton
Gonzaga is hands down the best team in the country, and it’s tough to argue otherwise. It’s difficult to pick out their best player, because it could be a multitude of guys on any given night. That had three first or second team consensus All-Americans. Thirty percent of college basketball’s first two team’s All-American list were comprised of the same mid-major program. Incredible what Mark Few has done. But the one first teamer was Corey Kispert. Corey Kispert is listed as a forward, but at first thought by many college basketball fanatics would probably be thought to be a guard. The first thing you probably think of when you hear his name, after the headband and wavy hair of course, is him raining in yet another three point attempt.
Corey Kispert would be Creighton’s tallest starter. I have been concerned about this issue with Creighton’s front court depth, or lack of it, since the very beginning of the season. It’s no secret this is a guard oriented team that relies heavily on whether or not their three point shot is falling that night, which can lead to a lot of inconsistency. That reliance on the three point shot can make this offense look so anemic at times it’s scary. This team scored 48 in their conference championship in a 25 point loss to Georgetown. The same Georgetown team that lost by 23 in their opener of the NCAA Tournament. Xavier, Providence, and Butler have all been able to beat the Bluejays as well.
Additionally, Creighton has struggled to shoot the three ball of late. They haven’t hit double digit three point makes in four straight games, and have averaged 60.5 points over that stretch. You have to score at a high level to beat Gonzaga, as the Zags average 92 a contest. The scary part of those stats is Creighton is considered a better offensive team than a defensive one, so I don’t see that side justifying their lack of scoring.
The height issue and style of play I look to not only affect Creighton on offense, but on the defensive end of the floor as well. Drew Timme, the 6-10 All-American who averages 19 and 7, should do some damage on the interior for the Bulldogs. He’s coming off maybe the best game of his career against the Sooners where he went for 30 and 13 on just 12 shot attempts. I believe he’ll carry that momentum into this game Sunday, and for Gonzaga to blow out Creighton on their way to the Elite 8.
Image Credit: Imagn