Tale of the Tape: Don't Sleep on Hoyer
Brian Hoyer is Quietly Getting Ready for Big Fantasy Performances
The Cleveland Browns are one of the last teams to cross the mind of DFS players as they fill out lineups, as their good-enough defense and mediocre offense often only present contrarian plays, and rarely present any high-upside options.
But Brian Hoyer continues to quietly impress for the Browns, and has a cake schedule ahead. So what did he do this weekend that should put him on your radar moving forward?
While Jordan Cameron was certainly under-used in the Browns’ win against the Titans, Hoyer is more than capable of getting the ball to his best pass catcher no matter the situation.
Here, Cameron is being held by a Tennessee defensive back, but Hoyer’s throw is so perfect, that the contact doesn’t matter at all.
Thrown on an out route past 10 yards, this displays good velocity, anticipation and ball placement, three things that can go a long way toward success in the NFL as a quarterback.
Another way to find success in the league is to capitalize on play action. Hoyer handled the ball well during a goal-line situation and found Jim Dray for an easy score off of a run fake, and then improvised a bit to help bring the Browns within a score late in the game.
Hoyer is faced with immediate pressure on this bootleg, to the point where he has to drop back 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and still backpedal to escape a rusher. But he has his eyes on his receivers downfield, and has a plan to step up and make a play.
(Also, what the heck are his linemen doing?)
Hoyer side-steps his rusher and steps into a throw for Travis Benjamin, who you saw crossing from right to left in the first image. Benjamin helped out his quarterback by breaking back, away from his defender, and finding open space in the end zone.
Hoyer didn’t throw the ball away, or continue to scramble outside and try to beat the defender, but stepped up and found his wideout with a great throw while on the move.
Hoyer also showed some more positives while in the pocket, including this fantastic throw to Miles Austin.
Hoyer sees Austin sneaking behind a zone defender and into open space…
And while he may have waited a bit too long to make the throw, he had the velocity and placement to thread the needle between two defenders and make the big play to move the chains.
According to my charting, Hoyer struggled with having passes batted down at the line, and also had a few plays that I consider to be dropped passes, while others may consider them to be passes broken up by defenders.
But maybe the most notable statistic for Hoyer was his play on play action passes, when the Browns’ signal caller was 9 of 15 with 2 touchdowns. Four of those passes went 20+ yards downfield, with three of those four finding their intended target.
The Browns have a stable of running backs capable of establishing the ground game and setting up the run action on passing plays later in games. Hoyer thrives in that situation, as he has the pocket presence and vision to all parts of the field to capitalize on these big play possibilities.
Hoyer is ultimately an average quarterback at best, with plenty of mistakes and poorly thrown balls to mention over the course of the season. But he’s looking downfield more than he has in the past, and is more accurate with those throws, as his yards per attempt average is up more than a full yard over last season.
And as we’ve seen with Kirk Cousins, Mike Glennon, Austin Davis and others, a mediocre quarterback in a good situation can be fantasy gold.
With games against the Steelers, Jaguars, Raiders and Buccaneers over the next four weeks, Hoyer has a cakewalk of a schedule ahead. Three of those four games are at home, as well, making him an even more attractive option in the weeks to come.
His pricing is as low as it normally is this week, as he’s 6,500 on FanDuel and 6,100 on DraftKings, representing a 30% or more discount on top players at the position on either site. And given how Pittsburgh played against the pass two weeks ago when Mike Glennon and the Bucs came to town, I would expect a return on investment, and then some, for players who roll with Hoyer this week in DFS.
Is Branden Oliver Legit?
The San Diego Chargers were one of the deepest teams at running back entering the season, with a returning Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead joined by Donald Brown via an offseason acquisition. Brown did well as a change-of-pace for Trent Richardson in 2013 for the Colts, and seemed to be a good fit for the Chargers grind-it-out style as well.
But just a month into the NFL season, the best-laid plans of the Chargers have gone awry, as Mathews is sitting out with an injury, and Woodhead is done for the year with an ailment of his own. That should have opened the door for Brown to dominate the work and the production for San Diego, but he was ineffective before suffering a concussion and missing most of this past week’s game against New York.
And so, sitting on a huge lead against a hopeless Jets team, the Chargers leaned on Branden Oliver, a Buffalo product who went undrafted after a ridiculously good college career in upstate New York. And he posted some ridiculous numbers during his first game as the lead back for San Diego.
But are those numbers legit? With Woodhead out of the picture, and Brown not seeming like very tough competition, there is a role in the San Diego offense for another running back. Can Oliver be the guy?
Let’s consider his tape from Sunday.
This was the play that led to Oliver’s touchdown run against the Jets. He starts off following the dotted line, running right at his center, waiting for blocks to develop. The other line is where his blocking will actually develop on this play, and where he’ll find a crease for a score.
Oliver has run out of real estate pressing forward behind his center, and is shifting his weight to burst through the gap to his left.
He then flies upfield, getting a great block from center Doug Legursky (57) and finds the end zone.
After that play, Legursky would suffer a knee injury, and the Chargers would find themselves using their fourth center of the season as Chris Watt entered the game. Oliver’s running just wasn’t the same from that point on.
In the first half, Oliver averaged 4.3 yards per carry, including the touchdown seen above, and helped the Bolts race out to their lead.
But in the second half, five of Oliver’s nine carries were for two yards or less, with a 52-yard scamper breaking the monotony of short gains for the San Diego back.
Here’s the 52-yard run as it unfolded from the Jets’ perspective. The play set up perfectly, as the Chargers blockers set up an alley for Oliver to run, and sustained their blocks long enough to give him a chance at a big play.
Oliver then denies a tackler with a strong stiff arm, and takes off for a big gain.
The 52-yard gain is the longest play for the Chargers this season, while Oliver’s 50-yard reception from this game is their second-longest gain of the year. The short, stout runner has shown big-play potential, and more importantly, has shown that he can be a threat as a receiver out of the backfield.
So Oliver will likely see a majority of the Danny Woodhead role for the San Diego offense, playing as a change-of-pace to Ryan Mathews once he returns. No matter Donald Brown’s health status, the play of Oliver should keep the rookie ahead of the former Colts runner.
And with the way the Chargers play, there’s always a chance for good volume out of their running backs, as they chew up as much clock as possible and love to get backs and tight ends involved in the offense as often as possible. So keep an eye on Oliver, and don’t hesitate to roll him out in good matchups moving forward.