Tale of the Tape: Edelman is Cash Game King
Why Julian Edelman is the Cash Game King
The New England Patriots are struggling on offense this season. Tom Brady doesn’t look like himself, and a hobbled Rob Gronkowski and banged-up Shane Vereen aren’t enough to bail out one of the best QBs of all time still standing on his last leg.
But there’s still daily fantasy value to be found in New England in the form of Julian Edelman. The diminutive slot receiver has assumed the Wes Welker role in the Patriots offense, and has become the cash game king of daily fantasy football.
Despite playing with a quarterback ranked 30th of 32 in yards per attempt, Edelman has scored 17.6, 21, and 18.9 points using DraftKings PPR scoring through three weeks. He has yet to top 100 yards receiving, but it’s his consistency and reliability that help him provide cash game stability.
Edelman has the second-most receptions in the NFL since the start of the 2013 season, trailing only Pierre Garcon. And since Week 11 of 2013, Edelman has been targeted on throws at least 7 times per game (including 6 double-digit target weeks), catching no fewer than six passes in any of those contests, while hauling in five scores over that span.
So far this season, Edelman is one of only four players to be targeted more than 25 times and come away with a catch rating over 75%. The others are Jimmy Graham, Antonio Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders.
Yet Edelman was ridiculously cheap in Week 3, in what seemed like a great matchup, on a site where every one of his catches earns him a point. Can he keep this up? What makes him so great?
This image reveals why Edelman is so great. This is what he does at least four or five times per game, picking up chunks of yards from Tom Brady on a play that’s nearly impossible to defend.
But how does he get into those situations to make those great catches? Let’s take a look.
Tom Brady isn’t fooling anyone. He’s staring down Edelman right from the snap on this play, and the linebacker underneath knows it. The problem is, there’s nothing that linebacker can do.
Edelman breaks toward the sideline short of his corner, and the linebacker makes his jump, trying to get out in the way of the pass. (Note that Rob Gronkowski is wide open. Tom Brady has no idea.)
The Patriots QB throws the ball to the same spot we saw in the first image above, which shows off Edelman’s strong hands. The converted QB doesn’t use his body to make catches, but extends his arms and secures the ball cleanly at any angle.
The corner would have to predict this route and break before Edelman to have a chance of even touching this football, and that opens him up to a double move, which Edelman is more than capable of. In most cases, defenses simply concede this route to Edelman and the Patriots when they’re not playing tight man coverage.
Sometimes the Patriots mix it up, and get Edelman involved on a designed play going downfield. Here, Edelman is going to take advantage of a rub or pick (depending on your perspective) to get up the field toward the first down marker.
The Raiders actually defend it pretty well, keeping their corner clean, and he has great position on Edelman as he breaks upfield.
But then this happens…
How do you defend that? Edelman’s quickness kept him a half-step ahead of his defender, and Brady’s throw put it up where the DB had no chance, while Edelman showed off his hands yet again.
The Patriots lean on Julian Edelman, even when things aren’t working on offense like they should. He’s a menace against zone defenses, and has the hands and athleticism to beat man coverage as well.
So while his upside is always somewhat limited by his lack of size (and therefore, lack of red zone potential on a team with Rob Gronkowski), his floor is about as safe as it gets for a player who always seems to be fairly priced across the industry.
His value diminishes a bit in games where his receptions don’t net him a full point, but if you have the salary in a cash game lineup to use Edelman, he’s almost always worth the buy.
How Kirk Cousins Proved Me Wrong, and Proved me Right
Last week, I wrote about how Kirk Cousins would struggle despite lots of talking heads and analysts touting him as a solid option as a starting quarterback. I pointed out his lack of accuracy and ball placement, his struggles under pressure, and his second-half collapses.
So to be totally honest, I was proven wrong by Cousins in Week 3 against the Eagles. But I was also proven correct, and there’s still cause for concern as the Washington quarterback’s price skyrockets moving forward.
Cousins showed incredible touch on his deep passes on Sunday, dropping in 3 of his 4 targets over 20 yards (according to my charting of the game), including a beautiful touchdown to DeSean Jackson.
On this play, Eagles safety Nate Allen is the deep middle safety in a Cover 3 look. That means the corners on the outside will play with outside leverage and funnel receivers toward this deep safety.
That’s exactly what Cary Williams does, as he stays outside of Jackson and follows him on the first half of his double move. He’s obviously a step behind Jackson when he cuts back infield, but that’s because he expects Allen to be there.
But Allen was caught looking underneath at Pierre Garcon, and as soon as Cousins saw that hesitance, he unloaded for Jackson and dropped a perfect pass into his receiver’s arms.
This is the perfect deep throw, as it allowed Jackson the momentum to shrug off his tackler and waltz into the end zone for a score. This is something I didn’t expect to see from Cousins, and he repeated his effort on deeper throws multiple times in this game.
But we still saw more of the same from the Washington signal caller, and there’s still reason to fade him in tougher matchups.
I only counted a handful of instances when Cousins was under pressure from Eagle defenders, something that historically causes him problems. With all day to throw, he settled into a rhythm, and was connecting on lots of short and intermediate throws.
But as the game wore on, his throws became more erratic. In the first half, he was 7 of 10 with a touchdown when throwing to his right. (When I chart, I define “right” as outside of where the college hashmarks would be, between the numbers and the NFL hashmarks.) This included four completions longer than six yards.
In the second half, Cousins was 1 of 8 when throwing to his right, which included the interception, and a dropped pass. His only completion to the right side of the field in the second half was a deep throw of over 20 yards, as he missed all seven of his attempts shorter than 19 yards.
His intermediate accuracy also faded in the second half, as he went 4 of 14 with an interception and a drop between 6-20 yards anywhere on the field in the second half, after posting a 6 of 10 mark at the same distance in the first half.
Overall, his third and fourth quarter performances were lacking compared to his effort in the first half, as his completion percentage fell under 50% in the second half after connecting on nearly three-quarters of his throws in the first half.
The Eagles were very, very poor on defense on Sunday, and it nearly cost them the game. Were it not for an athletic interception and some of Cousins’ missed throws, the Philadelphia defense would be in the headlines for all the wrong reasons today in the City of Brotherly Love.
A Thursday night game against the Giants is on deck for Cousins, followed by duo of NFC West challenges from the Seahawks and Cardinals. New York is a significantly better pass rushing and pass defending team than the Eagles, and Thursday night is a fantasy football wasteland as it is.
And of course, Seattle and Arizona represent two of the best defenses in the NFC, and will be incredibly tough matchups for Cousins.
So if you believe that Cousins’ first half against the Eagles, under no pressure from the Philly pass rush, is indicative of what he really is, then continue to roll him out as his price increases.
But through his brief NFL career, he has continued to prove that he’s bad under pressure, and struggles as games get into the third and fourth quarter. I’ll be staying away from Kirk Cousins for now, but may revisit him once an easier matchup against the Cowboys or Buccaneers rolls around later this year.