Tale of the Tape: Jeremy Hill and Odell Beckham Jr.
Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are on a collision course for yet another playoff showdown in the AFC, your taxes will be due in mid-April, and the sun will rise in the east. Some things in life are predictable enough to set a watch by, especially in the NFL, which features plenty of excitement every year, only to lead to the same old suspects in contention every season.
But let’s not focus on those players. Instead, let’s look at a couple of the NFL’s rising stars who had great games this weekend, and consider their future from a fantasy football perspective. This season has been great for rookies across the league, but Odell Beckham Jr. and Jeremy Hill have been among the best, and they both stood out this Sunday.
Jeremy Hill Becomes the “Featured Back”
It’s impossible to trust coachspeak on a week-to-week basis, but reports out of Cincinnati ahead of Week 15 indicated that Jeremy Hill would be the featured back for the Bengals, ahead of incumbent starter Gio Bernard. It turned out that those reports were true, as Hill received the majority of the team’s touches this week with Bernard healthy, a first this year.
And as he’s done for most of the season, Hill put on a show when given the chance to run early and often, finding the end zone twice and picking up chunks of yards on every play, leading to a productive fantasy day. Here’s a look at a few of his plays from Sunday, to look at what he brings to the table as the lead back for the Bengals.
The Bengals have moved a tight end into the backfield to lead block on this play, and which paves the way for Hill to get a nice gain in the big running lane that develops.
Hill’s linemen do a great job of holding off Cleveland defenders, with only two players in the box running free as the handoff is made. One of those players will be picked up by the fullback, while the other (seen to the far left of the image) will be the one to force Hill’s decision and stop the play before it turned into a big gain.
Ideally, Hill would be able to make a man miss or be able to run cleanly through the lane behind his fullback thanks to offensive linemen getting to the second level, but on this play, a Cleveland player will follow Hill to the running lane and force him too close to his lead blocker.
This leads to Hill tripping and falling over the fullback, ending the play after a respectable gain. But the Bengals saw something they liked on this play, and would go back to the well a bit later…
Yes, this is virtually the same exact play, with the fullback leading the way to take care of the free runner in the rushing lane. But you can see that a Cincinnati offensive lineman is moving upfield (#61) and he’ll help make a block that springs this play for six points.
Here’s the proof of #61’s efforts, as he seals off a Cleveland defender at the same time the fullback takes care of the Browns player he’s responsible for. This leaves Hill with a hole to run through, and only a defensive back between him and the end zone.
Look at this stiff arm from Hill. His arm isn’t even fully extended yet, but the distance he’s able to put between himself and the defender with a bent arm is enough to start to pull away. Once he thrusts his arm to a full extension, the defender stands no chance, and Hill is away into the end zone.
According to MockDraftable, Hill’s arm length is in the 91st percentile among running backs. He’s got elite size for the position with good height, long arms and big hands, and he uses those tools well on the field, showing the balance and coordination required to always fall forward, and to juke and evade defenders, even while running at full speed.
And then, when you consider the smart ways the Bengals use him, his value increases even more.
This is one of many misdirection plays the Bengals would call for Hill on Sunday, including options, read-options, counters and other smart calls to keep the defense honest. On this particular down, Hill will fake right and then take a carry heading left before cutting back and heading upfield.
You can see that this fake right has drawn two blitzing outside defenders for Cleveland up, and has also drawn #51 up into the gap in front of him, which is not where the play will be going.
As the play unfolds, the Browns are quickly outnumbered at the actual point of attack, as the two pulling linemen will be more than enough to take out the one backside defender who has stayed at home.
Hill has one man to beat to pick up a nice gain on the play, and he’s quick enough to turn upfield and leave him in the dust as he stumbles in for a tackle attempt while being blocked.
Hill then tries to jump cut to the inside of the defender waiting for him at the next level, and is unable to get away, but he does manage to fall forward, a valuable trait for an inside runner like Hill.
The concern for the Bengals back is the way the team calls plays in various in-game situations. In games the Bengals haven’t won this year, Hill has averaged fewer than seven carries per game, while he’s well into the double digits in games Cincy has won. The Bengals have run more than they’ve passed in seven of 14 games this season, and all seven of those contests were victories for the Bengals.
In their non-wins, they’ve come close to a 2-to-1 pass to run ratio twice, while posting a 3.5 pass to run ratio against the Colts. We simply can’t rely on the Bengals to run the ball regardless of game flow, and with their remaining schedule, there’s reason to doubt Hill’s fantasy reliability down the stretch.
Cincinnati finishes the season against the Broncos and Steelers, two teams more than capable of putting up points and keeping the Bengals in a shootout. Hill is a viable pass catcher, so his value doesn’t disappear if the Bengals don’t win, but his rushing volume will likely be down over the final two weeks, and Gio Bernard’s dynamic receiving ability will keep him on the field when the team is trailing.
Hill is definitely a player to buy into for next season, and depending on his price, he might be playable in these last two games, or in a playoff contest should the Bengals reach the postseason. But his volume is very game-flow dependent, and that’s a concern over these last two weeks of 2014.
How To Cash In On Odell Beckham Jr.‘s Rookie of the Year Chase
The New York Giants aren’t a particularly good football team this season. They’re 5-9 on the year, and while that would be good enough for a spot in the chase for the NFC South, Tom Coughlin’s team is out of contention in the NFC East. They are also out of the running for a top draft spot, leaving them in the mediocre midsection of the NFL, and with little to play for over the final two games.
Except, there is one thing for New York to chase over the next two weeks. Dynamic rookie receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has caught up with Bucs wideout Mike Evans and is now likely the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Two more good games from the first-year player from LSU would solidify his spot as the season’s top rookie player on offense, and there’s no reason for the Giants to not get him as many touches as possible to reach that goal.
Sunday’s game against Washington was a perfect example, as I counted 19 targets (which includes plays called back for penalty) for the rookie, several of which were designed plays just for Beckham. He also returned multiple punts, and carried the ball once.
No other Giants player was targeted more than four times, The Giants are feeding Beckham at an out-of-this-world pace. Here’s why you should buy in.
This play is absolutely brilliant. It drew an audible “Oooh!” from me as I was watching, the same sort of “Oooh!” you hear at an MMA fight when someone receives a kick to the chin and drops to the mat.
The Giants are going to fake a quick screen to the slot receiver, and instead target Beckham on a post. This is especially smart since the Giants had already set up the screen look by throwing a couple of them earlier in the game.
Here are the two defenders the Giants will victimize here, and by all accounts, they’re both playing in zone coverage. The inside defender, E.J. Biggers, will be the one caught out on this play as Beckham zooms past for a score.
As you can see, both Washington defenders have their eyes on the screen receiver while Beckham gets up the field unopposed and ignored.
Biggers is caught looking at the screen receiver for just a second too long, and has his hips turned the wrong way to defend the speedy receiver cutting behind and into his halo of coverage responsibility. You never want to see a defender looking back at a receiver like Biggers is in the second image, as it’s a sign of poor body positioning and leverage, all brought on by the fake screen.
The play ends in a score for the Giants, as Beckham is too quick to be caught by any other Washington defender once he gets past Biggers and into open space.
The Giants would actually run this same play again later in the game, and while Washington defended it better, it still led to a nice gain for the Giants.
The rookie receiver was used in all sorts of ways on Sunday, but a majority of his looks were short to intermediate throws from Eli Manning. The Giants only went deep a few times, and every one of those plays were called back by a penalty, either on the offense or defense. Once, a deep throw to an open Beckham was nullified by a hold, and twice Beckham was held or tackled during his route by a defender for pass interference.
But what makes Beckham so special, on top of his high volume and incredible speed, is his ability to catch everything that comes his way. He put that on display Sunday yet again.
Beckham is going to run a wheel route outside of a “pick” or “rub” (depending on your perspective) by the outside receiver. Again, the Giants are working specifically to get Beckham the ball.
This results in one-on-one coverage at the pylon with a late-arriving defender, who does a pretty good job of getting a hand in Beckham’s face as he tries to make this catch.
But the broadcast feed reveals that Beckham was unfazed, and came down with the touchdown. But just how impressive of a catch was it? We’d find out when FOX ran a replay of the catch from that camera you see in the last image.
Beckham hauls in this pass while also pinning the defender’s arm inside of his arms. He basically catches the ball and his defender’s arm while getting two feet down in bounds for a touchdown. His hands are just too big and too strong to not haul in a pass, and his body control is excellent near the sideline, as he almost always finds a way to get his feet down in the field of play.
Beckham has a game against the Rams next, followed by a Week 17 contest with the Eagles. The Rams have allowed 13 points over their last three home games, and six points over their last three games overall. Beckham’s touchdown upside will likely be limited, but his volume will almost certainly still be there, and he’s worth considering in DFS in Week 16.
Week 17 against the Eagles is almost a must-play for Beckham, as Philly has shown to be vulnerable to big plays in the passing game despite having a defense that’s more than capable of forcing turnovers and playing well at times. The Giants will be out for revenge after a 27-0 stomping earlier this season, and will want to play spoiler to any possible playoff implications for their rivals.
Both of these players will be in plenty of DFS conversations next season, as they’ve already established themselves as leading stars when given the opportunity as rookies. Their matchups over the next two weeks aren’t great, but for the right price, you might be able to get one last good week out of two of the league’s best rookie performers.