Tale of the Tape: Josh Gordon Returns
Josh Gordon was suspended for the first 10 games of the Cleveland Browns 2014 season, and made his triumphant return in Week 12 against the Atlanta Falcons. There were quotes about snap counts and being able to “handle hits” in his first game back after an extended absence, but none of that seemed to matter once Gordon stepped on the field and the playoff-chasing Browns realized just how badly they needed him in the lineup.
How Josh Gordon’s Return Proves He’s a Top-Tier WR1 From Here On Out
In fact, his first target of the game was a near-miss on a very well thrown pass that was defended perfectly by Atlanta’s rising star at corner, former Washington standout Desmond Trufant.
But a quick search of Twitter, or a glance at your favorite fantasy writer’s account of Sunday’s game will likely reveal comments about Brian Hoyer’s inability to get Gordon the ball in an accurate fashion, which would seem to hamper his fantasy value. I don’t buy into that at all. Here’s why.
In watching Gordon’s 2014 debut, I charted 16 targets in his direction. Nine were catchable, one was semi-catchable, and six were totally uncatchable. This led to a catch rate of around 56%, which isn’t absurdly low for a big play wideout (although it certainly is low). Gordon was targeted over 11 times per game last year, and even if Hoyer’s inaccuracy continues to lead to a 56% catch rate, we can still expect more than a handful of receptions every week for the elite receiver.
The promising thing for those who choose to roster Gordon is that he’s always involved in the offense, and has plays designed to get him the ball. Let’s take a look at a couple of those plays.
On this play, Gordon is going to wait for the tight end to clear out the defender, and then drive across the formation.
We see the first instance of offensive pass interference (or a “rub”, as an offensive coach or player would call it) to help get Gordon open on this play. I’ve also put an arrow from the linebacker looking into the backfield, as he’s very quick to move upfield and abandon the middle of the field. It’s unclear if he was supposed to do this, because it leaves a lot of empty space for Gordon to run into.
As Gordon reaches the end of his route and is about to receive the ball, he gets another rub/pass interference from his teammate, and is able to make a decent run after the catch. The Browns sent all of their receivers upfield to “block” for Gordon, who drove underneath for the catch.
The Browns are going to do everything in their power to get Josh Gordon the ball. This is great news for fantasy players.
Here’s another example of the Browns getting Gordon involved with a designed play, and it shows just how good of a football player Gordon is, apart from being a terrific athlete.
Gordon has blockers out in front, including the two I’ve circled. The duo in the circle do a good job of double-teaming the first defender before the blocker further upfield disengages to get to the next unblocked Falcon player.
Gordon shows patience to allow his blocks to develop, and then bursts through the lane they’ve created.
This play went for over 20 yards as a result of good blocking and tremendous vision and quickness from Gordon. Cleveland has the option of running this play until teams figure out how to stop it, or to do as the Broncos have done this season and fake this play with a throw over the top to a receiver sneaking out of the formation with a screen look to Gordon.
The Browns even ran a reverse to Gordon, which appeared to be setting up for a pass from the receiver, but a bad pitch to Gordon ruined any chances of that play developing.
Gordon is by far the best option on the Cleveland offense, and he will see a big portion of the team’s looks in the passing game. He received more targets than Miles Austin and Andrew Hawkins combined, and even with a bad quarterback, managed to go for over 100 yards and earn a 20 point performance in PPR scoring.
His price will go up with real statistics to base his salary on, but he’s still the same Josh Gordon who should be started whenever your roster construction plans include paying up at wide receiver. His matchups over the next few weeks aren’t terrific, but he’s a matchup proof player, and if his salary doesn’t skyrocket, you can bet I’ll be using him next week in a big road game against Buffalo.
The Highs and Lows of Keenan Allen
Keenan Allen wasn’t suspended for the first 10 games of the Chargers season, although his lacking production certainly made it seem that way. The breakout rookie in 2013 stumbled out of the gate, failing to find the end zone for several weeks, and posting some seriously disappointing stat lines along the way. But this weekend brought a welcome return to last season’s level of performance.
Allen went for 100 yards against St. Louis, and also scored a touchdown, feats he had only accomplished one time this season (and in separate games). But there are still lows to go along with the high points of Keenan’s big day on Sunday. Let’s take a look at the roller coaster for the San Diego receiver.
Setting aside his “muffed punt” (which appeared to be a miscommunication between he and a blocker for the punt team leading to a ball falling and bouncing into their legs), Allen did have a couple of failures which led to turnovers for San Diego. The first was a nice catch and run that ended in the disappointment of a fumble.
Allen is going to run an in-cut past the first down marker on this play, and will do so sharply enough to beat his defender, who is playing very soft coverage.
He then avoids the tackle attempt of his original matchup (#21) and stutter-steps #33 to the turf, allowing some room to run upfield after the catch.
However, it’s the same man he shook for the reception and initial yardage after the catch who tracks him down and strips the ball away, turning a huge play for the Chargers into a big play for the Rams instead.
Allen also got out-muscled by the same defender (Janoris Jenkins) at the goal line in this game, which led to a pick-six for the Rams. Here’s a look at how that play went down.
Keenan is going to run a curl at the goal line, and Philip Rivers is going to rifle a pass in his direction, hoping that his big receiver can box-out the defender and get the touchdown.
Allen makes his break at the top of his route, and you can see that he is slipping a bit. This is balance he’ll never regain, especially not with a physical cornerback about to make his move at the incoming football.
Jenkins does get a little physical with Allen, but it’s largely Allen’s momentum after losing his balance which brings him to the ground while the dender keeps his eyes on the quarterback and moves upfield to get his hands on the football.
The Chargers play outdoors, on grass, and grass isn’t always perfect. Allen slipped a bit, and it was just poorly timed for the Chargers. But this is still a part of the roller coaster ride for Allen, and it’s part of the reason why he’s not been quite as good this season as he was a year ago.
Yet San Diego still trusted him with the ball, and gave him a chance later in the afternoon to take it to the house on a screen pass. He has fumbled, been targeted on interceptions, and been a part of shaky punt return plays, yet he still has the trust of his offense and his quarterback, and that’s valuable to fantasy football. On the season, he and Antonio Gates are the only Chargers with double digit red zone targets, and over the past six weeks, he’s among the ten most-targeted wideouts in the NFL.
We’ve also seen some very strong regression to the mean for Allen, who has sharply improved in one particular area as the season has gone on (and especially this weekend). According to Pro Football Focus, Allen was averaging only 3.3 yards after the catch per reception through the Chargers’ first six games. Since then, the former Cal wideout has averaged 5.7 yards after his receptions, which is in line with his 2013 average of 6.0 YAC/catch.
Allen isn’t the best athlete in the world, but he’s certainly a capable receiver who knows how to get up the field once he makes the grab. He’s finally back on track as a runner after the catch after a slow start this season, and he put that on display against St. Louis this weekend (even on the fumble play shown above). Combine that with the aforementioned trust from his QB and offense, and it’s easy to see why the arrow is certainly pointing up for Allen from here on out.
Next week’s game against Baltimore, who are averaging the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, will be another chance to take advantage of Allen’s shaky start and reduced price. Expect some frustrating moments along the way, but trust that Keenan Allen will deliver for your fantasy lineups thanks to his renewed ability to get yards after the catch.